Africa is the focus of an urgent warning from Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, world largest fertilizer producer, who stated the continent faces “dramatic consequences” due to fertilizer shortages caused by the Iran war.
The 62-day-old conflict has paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for 35% of the world’s urea. This disruption has already triggered a 70% surge in fertilizer prices.
Holsether warned of a “global auction” where wealthy nations outbid developing ones for limited stocks. He noted that while Europe may avoid famine, it is effectively “taking food away” from Africa.
“The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable,” he said. (The Guardian reported)
Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly exposed because it imports 90% of its fertilizer. The current crisis coincides with the start of the 2026 planting season in many regional agricultural hubs.
Yields for staple crops could drop by 50% in a single season without adequate nitrogen. Experts highlight Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Senegal and Kenya as the most heavily exposed nations in the region.
However, Ethiopia is the most vulnerable as it depends on the Gulf for 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer.
The CEO reported that nearly half a million tons of nitrogen production is currently offline. This shortfall could translate to a global loss of up to 10 billion meals every week.
Supply is further squeezed as regional producers, including those in Qatar, have suspended ammonia production. The toxic nature of the chemical makes storage too dangerous during active hostilities.
This crisis follows a fragile brokered ceasefire on April 8. However, the naval blockade persists, keeping essential nutrients for African soil trapped behind a military standoff in the Persian Gulf.
Holsether emphasized that African soil is already under-fertilized compared to European standards. Any further reduction in nutrients will lead to immediate declines in food availability and economic stability.
The United Nations (UN) warns that the “triple shock” of energy, food, and fertilizer costs could plunge an additional 45 million people into acute hunger across the continent this year.
