S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating to B from B- with a stable outlook, marking the nation’s first upgrade from the agency in 14 years following aggressive economic reforms.
The agency cited a fundamentally stronger Naira narrative underpinned by a sharp rise in market liquidity, with foreign exchange market turnover hitting a record $10 billion in April 2026 alone.
This liquidity surge follows the successful dismantling of multiple exchange rate regimes, which restored external investor confidence and helped propel Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves to $50 billion by March 2026.
The structural floor under the currency has been further reinforced by the full-capacity rollout of the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery, which has significantly reduced the historical import drain from refined petroleum products.
Global energy market dynamics also favor the oil producer, as S&P upwardly revised its Brent crude oil price assumption to $100 per barrel due to ongoing shipping constraints in the Middle East.
On the fiscal front, Executive Order 9 has centralized petroleum revenue remissions, pushing projected government revenues to 12.4% of GDP and cutting the debt-to-revenue ratio down to 338% from 500% in 2023.
This unified endorsement by S&P follows similar upward adjustments by Fitch and Moody’s, signaling a broad institutional validation that the administration’s macroeconomic policies are successfully rebuilding international capital market credibility.
However, the agency cautioned that translating these improved balance of payments, expanding current account surpluses, and structural currency dynamics into relief for domestic consumer inflation remains a critical near-term policy challenge.
