35 million Nigerians at risk of hunger this year, UN warns
By: ThinkBusiness Africa The United Nations has issued a serious warning that Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, is descending into its worst hunger crisis in over a decade. At the launch of the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan on Thursday, officials revealed that nearly 35 million people, including 3 million children, are at risk of severe malnutrition and starvation. The announcement comes as global aid budgets for the region have effectively “collapsed,” forcing international agencies to drastically scale back life-saving operations. The UN’s Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, Mohamed Malick Fall, said the UN can now only aim to provide aid to 2.5 million people this year—a sharp drop from the 3.6 million reached in 2025. The World Food Programme (WFP) warned that it will be forced to limit assistance to just 72,000 people in February, down from 1.3 million during last year. Fall noted that the 2026 plan requires $516 million, yet historical shortfalls suggest only a fraction may be realized. Last year’s appeal received only 24% of its required funding. “These are not statistics. These numbers represent lives, futures, and Nigerians,” Fall stated during the launch. “We have no choice but to focus only on the most life-saving interventions.” He said. Nigeria’s current food crisis is fueled by insurgent attacks in the Northern part of the country. Over 4,000 civilians were killed in the first eight months of 2025 alone, matching the total for all of 2023. This has forced 3.5 million people to flee their farms. While the Central Bank of Nigeria projects inflation to moderate to 12.9% later this year from 15.5% in December 2025; the effect of insecurity will likely jeopardize food production, pushing food prices beyond the reach of the average citizen. With international aid shrinking, the UN is calling for a “Humanitarian Reset.” The goal is to transition from a foreign-led aid model to one led by the Nigerian government by 2028.
Nigeria: Massive Treasury Bill Demand Eases Government Borrowing Pressure
By: ThinkBusiness Africa The Federal Government’s ambitious plan to fund its 2026 fiscal deficit received a massive boost this week as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recorded a staggering N3.44 trillion in total subscriptions at its latest Treasury Bills (NT-Bills) auction. According to CBN data, the auction, held on Wednesday, saw demand exceed the initial N1.15 trillion offer by nearly 300%. This “wall of cash” hitting the government securities market provides a critical cushion for the 2026 budget, which carries a projected deficit of N23.85 trillion. With the Federal Government aiming to source 80% of its N17.89 trillion new borrowing from the domestic market this year, the success of these auctions is vital. The N3.44 trillion bid—the highest since December 2024—demonstrates that the market has the liquidity and the appetite to absorb the government’s debt requirements. The overwhelming interest was concentrated in the 364-day tenor, which alone attracted N3.35 trillion in bids. By oversubscribing this long-term paper, investors have effectively signaled their willingness to bankroll the government’s long-term obligations, easing the immediate pressure on the Debt Management Office (DMO) to search for more expensive or volatile funding sources. For the 91-day tenor, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) offered N150 billion but received subscriptions of approximately N40.6 billion, all of which was allotted at a stop rate of 15.84%, a marginal increase from the previous 15.80%. The 182-day tenor saw an offer of N200 billion and a total subscription of N52.0 billion; of this, the CBN allotted N42.1 billion at a stop rate of 16.65%, up from 16.50%. Collectively, the auction across all three tenors successfully drew in N3.44 trillion in bids, of which approximately N1.06 trillion was finally allotted to investors. The auction coincided with the repayment of over N1.2 trillion in maturing Federal Government bonds and bills. The oversubscription signaled that Investors simply “rolled over” these funds into the new offer. Meanwhile, The CBN’s orthodox monetary policy stance to curb inflation has kept interest rates at levels that appeal to both institutional fund managers and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). The DMO is expected to maintain this momentum as it executes its N7.55 trillion borrowing target for the first quarter of 2026.
Chinese lending to Africa falls 46% to $2.1 billion in 2024
By: ThinkBusiness Africa Chinese lending to Africa has plummeted to a near-historic low of $2.1 billion in 2024, marking a 46% year-on-year decline and signaling a fundamental shift in Beijing’s economic strategy on the continent. According to a report released Wednesday by the Boston University Global Development Policy (GDP) Center, the “megaproject era” of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has officially given way to a new phase of “selective, strategic engagement.” At its height in 2016, Chinese loan commitments to African nations peaked at $28.8 billion. The 2024 figure represents less than 8% of that volume. This sharp contraction follows a brief post-pandemic rebound in 2023. Between 2011-2018 Chinese loans to Africa averaged $9 billion; however post-pandemic struggles caused countries like Zambia, Ethiopia, and Ghana to default on their loans. Beijing found itself taking losses on some of the loans. The report showed. With interest payments consuming more than 25% of government revenues in major economies like Kenya and Angola, Beijing is pivotally shifting its risk management strategy. The 2024 data highlights a trend toward smaller, commercially viable projects that align with the “Small and Beautiful” directive championed by President Xi Jinping. In 2024, Chinese lenders backed only six projects across just five countries: Angola, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Senegal, and Egypt. Financing was exclusively channeled into resilient sectors: with $1.2 billion for road and transport infrastructure in the DRC, Kenya, and Angola. And $760 million electricity transmission lines in Angola. “Fossil fuel projects, energy generation and information and communication technology (ICT) stopped receiving additional loans in 2024,” the report noted. Perhaps the most significant finding in the report is the aggressive move toward yuan-denominated loans, a direct challenge to the dominance of the U.S. dollar in sovereign debt. In 2024, Kenya converted approximately $3.5 billion of its existing Chinese debt into yuan. This “de-dollarization” strategy aims to shield African economies from U.S. dollar fluctuations while lowering interest costs. For China, it integrates African markets more deeply into its own financial ecosystem. Angola emerged as the top recipient in 2024, securing $1.45 billion for power grid and road upgrades. This concentration of funds reflects Beijing’s desire to double down on established, strategic partnerships that involve critical resources and reliable repayment histories. Analysts at Boston University suggest this decline is not a sign of Chinese withdrawal, but of maturation. By focusing on “on-lending” through local banks and prioritizing energy transmission over massive dams, China is reducing its direct exposure to sovereign defaults while still maintaining influence in core sectors. However, the $2.1 billion figure leaves a massive infrastructure financing gap for the continent.
Nigeria: BUA cement hits 20M ton with new 3M ton Sokoto expansion deal
By: ThinkBusiness Africa Nigeria’s second largest cement producer, BUA Cement PLC has officially signed an agreement with Chinese engineering giant CBMI Construction for the construction of a new 3-million-ton-per-annum (MTPA) production line in Sokoto State on Wednesday. BUA cement Chairman, Abdul Samad Rabiu, said the new expansion will push BUA Cement’s total annual installed capacity to 20 million metric tons, further tightening the competition in the West African cement market. He said that the new Sokoto line will be powered by BUA’s Kogi Liquefied Natural Gas plant, a facility that broke ground just a year ago in Ajaokuta. By leveraging LNG, BUA aims to reduce operational costs by shifting away from more expensive and polluting traditional fuels. The plant is strategically positioned to serve the North-West of Nigeria and neighboring landlocked regional markets like Niger and Benin. The deal continues a long-standing partnership between BUA Group and Sinoma CBMI. CBMI has been the technical backbone for several of BUA’s previous plants, including the existing lines in Sokoto and Edo states. Chairman Abdul Samad Rabiu noted that the project is expected to be completed within 20 months, a timeline that reflects the group’s “audacious yet structured” approach to industrialization. “Powered by our Kogi LNG plant, it will boost Nigeria’s North-West and regional markets in just 20 months, Rabiu said in a post on X (formally Twitter). With this move, BUA is effectively narrowing the gap with the industry leader, Dangote cement, which boasts of a production capacity with 52 million-tons per annum, and owns 60% of market share volume; while BUA holds 19-21% market volume. In late 2025, BUA recorded a staggering 640.8% year-on-year profit increase in Q3, outpacing Dangote.This was largely due to BUA’s lower cost of sales, driven by their “captive power” strategy—using their own gas and LNG resources rather than relying on expensive external energy or the national grid. However, the Dangote Group is not just sitting idle, earlier this January, Aliko Dangote announced an audacious “Vision 2030” plan to reach 90 million tonnes of capacity. His strategy is shifting toward a massive export-to-import model, aiming to use Nigeria’s limestone to supply the entire African continent via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
WEF Davos: We’re Hoping to Rely Less on Borrowing – Nigerian Finance Minister
By: ThinkBusiness Africa Nigeria is pivoting away from its heavy reliance on foreign debt, signaling a “consolidation phase” for Africa’s largest economy. Speaking on Tuesday at the 2026 World Economic Forum (WEF), Wale Edun, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, told global leaders and investors that the country is now focused on “domestic resource mobilization” rather than fresh borrowing. In an interview with Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the summit, Edun emphasized that while Nigeria retains the “latitude” to access international bond markets—evidenced by the 400% oversubscription of its $2.3 billion Eurobond last year —the government’s priority has shifted. “The issue now is to focus on revenue, focus on domestic resource mobilization,” Edun stated. “We’re hoping to rely less on borrowing.” He said. The Minister explained that after two years of “politically difficult” reforms—including the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates—Nigeria has achieved a level of macroeconomic stability that makes it “investible” without the need for constant credit. Last year, President Bola Tinubu’s administration presented an ambitious N58.18 trillion ($40 billion) budget for 2026 to the Nigerian House of Assembly. While the budget carries a projected deficit of roughly N23.85 trillion (4.28% of GDP), the strategy to fund it is changing: The government aims to raise tax revenue to 18% of GDP within two years by sealing leakages and digitizing collection systems. Non-oil revenue now accounts for nearly 96% of GDP, with sectors like services and agriculture driving a projected 4.68% growth for 2026. With the opening of the first-ever “Nigeria House” at Davos, Vice President Kashim Shettima and Minister Edun are actively courting “cash-rich” investors from the Middle East and beyond. Turning the Corner on Debt The shift is partly a response to a global environment where multilateral and concessional financing is “retreating,” according to Edun. By focusing on internal revenue and private investment, Nigeria hopes to reduce its debt-servicing burden, which is projected at ₦15.52 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already responded positively to these measures, projecting that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio could drop to 35% by the end of 2026 if the current reform momentum is sustained. “Nigeria is Open for Collaboration” The Nigerian delegation’s message at Davos 2026 is clear: the era of “fragile stabilization” is over, and the era of “robust consolidation” has begun. “Government can open doors and de-risk environments; only enterprise can animate growth,” Vice President Shettima noted during the commissioning of the Nigeria House pavilion. As the summit continues, the focus remains on whether these fiscal promises can translate into lower inflation—which fell to 14.45% in late 2025—and a more stable cost of living for the Nigerian public. Would you like me to provide a more detailed breakdown of the ₦58.18 trillion 2026 budget allocations for sectors like education and health?
South Africa’s inflation ends 2025 at 3.6%, lowest average in 21 years
By: ThinkBusiness Africa South Africa’s headline consumer price inflation (CPI) rose slightly to 3.6% year-on-year in December 2025, according to the latest data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) on Thursday. While the figure marks a modest increase from November’s 3.5%, the annual data reveals a historic cooling of prices across the economy. The average inflation rate for the full year of 2025 settled at 3.2%, the lowest annual average since 2004 (1.4%). This milestone places South Africa comfortably within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) newly established 3% target, signaling a successful period of disinflation. The month-on-month increase of 0.2% between November and December was primarily driven by seasonal festive trends and specific supply-side shocks. Long-distance bus fares surged by 38.6% during the December holiday rush. Despite this monthly spike, bus travel remains 5.6% cheaper than it was in December 2024. According to the data, Food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) inflation remained stable at 4.4%, but meat prices continued to surge. Driven by supply shortages linked to foot-and-mouth disease, meat inflation hit 12.6% in December. Despite the year-end tick-up, 2025 was a year of significant relief for the South African consumer. Core inflation—which excludes the volatile categories of food, fuel, and energy—fell to 3.6% in December, down from 3.7% in November. The December print aligned closely with market expectations and provides a stable backdrop for the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on January 29, 2026. Economists suggest that with average inflation for 2025 resting at 3.2%—just above the 3% “sweet spot” target—the SARB has significant room to lower interest rates to stimulate the country’s modest GDP growth. On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a 1.4% GDP growth for South Africa in 2026.
Africa Grow: Why the 2026 Africa Business Convention is the Most Critical Edition Yet
By: Chidozie Nwali For years, the narrative surrounding Africa has narrowed between “Africa Rising” and “Africa Resilient.” But as we enter 2026, the conversation has shifted. The Africa Business Convention (ABC) is set to convene its fifth annual session on February 3–4, 2026, at the Lagos Continental Hotel. Under the timely theme “Africa Grow,” the convention serves as a high-level strategic platform for policymakers, global institutional investors, and corporate leaders to align on the continent’s economic trajectory. The 2026 edition arrives at a critical juncture. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a continent-wide GDP expansion of 3.7–3.8% for the year — a figure that masks a complex reality of high-performance markets and structural bottlenecks. The convention aims to bridge this gap, moving beyond broad macroeconomic projections to facilitate the specific deal-flow and policy reforms required to sustain this momentum. #ABC2026 arrives at a pivotal moment. While growth is returning, it remains uneven. From the oil-backed expansions in North Africa to the rapid 6% surges in Ethiopia and Rwanda, the continent is struggling with its own potential. Earlier this week, #ABC2026 announced Tolulope Longe, from the energy sector, as one of their speakers. She is the manager, Commercial Contracts Management at Nigerian Liquified Natural Gas Limited (NLNG). “At ABC 2026, our goal is to put these disparities on the table and ask the critical questions: how can we accelerate growth, build the right foundations, and pursue the reforms needed for it to be both sustainable and inclusive? We want to move beyond rhetoric and drive real conversations that inspire practical solutions,” says Ogho Okiti, Founder and Convener of the ABC Since its inception in 2021, the ABC has hosted over 8,700 delegates and 140 distinguished speakers, including heads of multilateral organizations such as Afreximbank President Benedict Oramah and industry titans from organizations like IHS Towers and Platform Capital. The two-day summit will feature: “Expected outcomes from the convention include enhanced business-to-business and government-to-business collaboration, increased investment flows, growth of African enterprises, acceleration of intra-African trade, and stronger policy alignment,” Ogho Okiti highlighted. With less than a month to go, the energy in Lagos is visible and solid. As registration enters its final phase, the message from the organizers is clear: Africa is no longer waiting for a seat at the global table. It is building its own. For the entrepreneurs, policymakers, and investors heading to Lagos this February, #ABC2026 isn’t just a date on the calendar. It is the roadmap for how the continent will spend the rest of the decade. Executive Summary:
New $1b climate fund commits 40% allocation to Africa’s green transition
By: ThinkBusiness Africa British International Investment (BII), the UK’s development finance institution, on Tuesday announced a $40 million anchor commitment to a new $1 billion climate fund. Managed by Allianz Global Investors, the Allianz Credit Emerging Markets (ACE) fund is set to become one of the largest “blended finance” vehicles in history, specifically designed to bridge the trillion-dollar gap in global climate financing. The fund reached its “first close” this week with $690 million already secured. Its primary mission is to de-risk green investments in the Global South, where private capital has traditionally been hesitant to enter due to perceived economic and political volatility. The ACE fund utilizes a “blended finance” structure, effectively creating a financial safety net for commercial investors. In a departure from typical emerging market funds—which often favor more stable Asian or Latin American markets—the ACE fund has committed to allocating 40% of its disbursements to Africa. The fund will target Renewable Power infrastructures (solar, wind, and grid stability), Clean Transportation (electric vehicle infrastructure and mass transit), Sustainable Agriculture (climate-resilient farming and supply chains), and Financial Services (Helping local banks provide “green loans” to small businesses). This investment marks the third major deployment from the £100 million Mobilisation Facility launched by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in late 2024. The facility was designed to ensure that every pound of UK taxpayer money “works harder” by acting as a magnet for private dollars. Despite the scale of the ACE fund, it represents just a fraction of the estimated $2.4 trillion needed annually by 2030 for emerging markets to meet Paris Agreement goals.
Uganda’s gold exports rocket 76% to record $5.8b, surpassing Coffee
By: Chidozie Nwali Uganda’s gold exports surged by a staggering 75.8% in 2025, reaching an all-time high of $5.8 billion (Shs 21.1 trillion), according to fresh data released by the Bank of Uganda on Tuesday. The surge, fueled by record-breaking global prices and an influx of new industry players, has firmly established gold as the East African country’s leading export, eclipsing coffee and fundamentally reshaping the nation’s economic landscape. Coffee exports for 2025 reached a record 8.4 million bags, valued at $2.4 billion (Shs 8.2 trillion), a 77.3% growth. The Bank of Uganda (BoU) attributed the leap to a combination of internal industrial scaling and external market volatility. Adam Mugume, the BoU Executive Director for Research and Economic Analysis, noted that attractive international prices—which neared $4,000 per ounce late last year—incentivized a rush of new dealers and refiners into the sector. The global gold price rise, which grew by over 64% during 2025, was largely driven by: Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East spurred “safe-haven” buying. A significant driver of the growth is Uganda’s strategic shift toward value addition. The country now operates at least nine gold refineries, including the high-capacity Wagagai mine and refinery in eastern Uganda, a $250 million investment. “The surge reflects a decisive shift from raw mineral exports to value addition,” said Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa. “We are now producing gold at 99.99% purity, meeting international bullion standards.” Uganda has also cemented its role as a regional processing hub. While domestic production is growing, a large portion of the exported bullion is sourced as raw gold from neighboring DRC, South Sudan, and Tanzania, refined in Kampala or Entebbe, and then shipped to markets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), India, and Europe. The “Gold Boom” has provided a critical cushion for the Ugandan economy. The influx of foreign exchange contributed to a 2.48% appreciation of the Ugandan Shilling in 2025 and helped push national foreign reserves to a record $5.7 billion. However, the rapid growth has not been without controversy. An Auditor General’s report recently highlighted that while billions are being earned by private exporters, government revenue from the sector remains disproportionately low. There are also ongoing calls for tighter regulation to curb smuggling and ensure that artisanal miners benefit from the windfall.
Nigerian businesses are borrowing more: demand for credit hits 12.4 index points
By: ThinkBusiness Africa Nigerian businesses significantly ramped up their borrowing activities in the final quarter of 2025, with corporate credit demand climbing to a net balance of 12.4 index points. This surge in appetite for capital follows a 50 basis point reduction in the country’s monetary policy rate, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) moved to stimulate a resilient but credit-starved economy. The spike in borrowing comes on the heels of the CBN’s first major rate cut in years. In September 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 27%. While high by global standards, the move signaled a “recalibration toward growth” after a punishing cycle of six consecutive hikes in 2024 that had pushed rates as high as 27.5%. According to the CBN’s latest Q4 2025 Credit Conditions Survey Report, this policy easing—combined with a drop in the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) from 50% to 45%—successfully unlocked liquidity within the banking sector. Lenders reported that the overall supply of corporate credit rose to 21.3 index points, the highest level of the year. The report identifies two primary engines behind the 12.4-point demand index: Small and large enterprises were the primary beneficiaries of this shift. For small businesses in particular, interest rate “spreads” (the difference between what banks pay for deposits and what they charge for loans) narrowed by 14.8 points, making credit more affordable than it had been in over a year. The increased borrowing aligns with broader economic indicators. Nigeria’s GDP expanded by 4.23% in mid-2025, outperforming conservative forecasts from the IMF. Inflation, which had peaked 34%, also showed signs of cooling, easing to 14.45% November, and 15.5% in December 2025. Commercial banks are chasing market share again, reflecting the survey’s finding that market share objectives (17.0) were a top reason for the increased loan availability. For the first time since the 2024 currency reforms, Nigerians are seeing a convergence of lower inflation, a stabilized Naira (trading around N1,420/$), and the central bank is willing to let the economy breathe. However, the credit boom is not without its risks. Despite the surge in borrowing, the CBN report flagged a worrying trend: higher default rates across all corporate categories. Lenders warn that while the “rate cut” has opened the taps, the high cost of operations—including energy prices and previous currency volatility—continues to strain the repayment capacity of many firms. As Nigeria enters 2026, the Q4 data suggests a business community eager to expand but still walking a tightrope. With corporate loan approvals jumping by 26.1 points, the highest in five years, the “credit tap” is officially open. The challenge for the coming year will be ensuring that this new wave of debt fuels productive growth rather than a spike in non-performing loans.