IMF says it’s ready for a new funded program to Senegal
By: Chidozie Nwali The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said significant steps have been taken towards laying the foundation for a new loan package to Senegal, following the conclusion of a two-week mission to Dakar, where the fund noted that the West African economy has shown resilience in the face of global uncertainties and tight financial conditions. IMF said in a statement late Thursday. A major focus of the mission was addressing the severe fiscal and debt vulnerabilities revealed by the past administration’s undisclosed borrowing, which led to the suspension of a prior $1.8 billion IMF program in 2024. Mr. Edward Gemayel, IMF Mission Chief for Senegal, said the Senegalese authorities have shown transparency in addressing its hidden debts and are also focused on improving its fiscal deficit. “The authorities deserve recognition for their continued commitment to transparency, fiscal discipline, and sound macroeconomic management.” He said. “This mission has provided a solid basis for moving forward, and we look forward to continuing our dialogue in the coming weeks to finalize agreement on the remaining policies and reforms that will underpin the new program.” He said. Senegal’s economy remains robust in 2025, supported by the first full year of oil and gas production and a rebound in agriculture. The IMF projected Real GDP growth at about 7.9 percent this year. Overall deficit is projected to narrow sharply from 13.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 7.8 percent in 2025. According to the fund. Also, the draft of Senegal’s 2026 Budget targets a further reduction of the deficit to 5.4 percent of GDP. The West African country faces scrutiny over hidden debts from the prior administration, leading the IMF to freeze its $1.8 billion USD loan program after uncovering misreported deficits. However, IMF said this misreporting are been addressed and the Senegalese authority has shown transparency by carrying out an audit of its total debt and correct figures are been provided. In October Moody credit rating agency downgraded Senegal’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings to Caa1 from B3; pushing the West African country’s ratings deeper into non-investment-grade territory. Moody cited increased risks to Senegal’s debt trajectory and liquidity position, largely stemming from the revelations of substantially higher public debt figures following a government audit earlier this year. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance and Budget in Dakar, rejected the downgrade stating that it “does not reflect the reality of the country’s economic fundamentals, nor the public policy measures currently being implemented to consolidate budget stability and reinforce debt sustainability-calling the move “speculative, subjective, and biased.”
African Development Bank greenlights €217 million for border-road completion in Uganda
By: ThinkBusiness Africa The Board of Directors of the African Development Bank Group (AFDB) has approved €217.37 million for the completion of a key border road project linking Uganda and Rwanda. AFDB said on Thursday. The Multinational Busega–Mpigi and Kagitumba–Kayonza–Rusumo Roads Project, will foster Uganda’s and Rwanda’s regional connectivity and ease trade relations between both countries. According to the bank, the resources will finance the construction of new interchanges, bridges, toll plazas, addressing chronic traffic congestion between Busega and Mpigi, a key bottleneck along the Northern Corridor connecting Kampala to Kigali. Once completed, the 27.3-km expressway is expected to cut travel time from over two hours to under 45 minutes, improving access to markets and social services for more than one million residents and traders in Busega, Mpigi and the surrounding communities. The total cost of the upgraded Uganda section now stands at €424.61 million, up from the original €176.26 million, reflecting a scaled-up project scope. AFDB Group will provide €217.37 million,while the Government of Uganda will contribute €30.98 million. The project is expected to generate over 1,200 jobs – 800 during construction and 400 in operations – with at least 30% of opportunities reserved for women and youth. “This project is more than a road; it is a lifeline for communities and a gateway for trade,” said George Makajuma, the Bank’s Principal Transport Engineer and project task manager. “The additional financing ensures that the Busega–Mpigi Expressway delivers safer, faster, and more inclusive transport for millions, unlocking the region’s economic potential.” The East African country’s national carrier (Uganda Airlines) recently launched its first-ever direct flight to London, improving international connectivity for passengers and cargo. Once completed, the expressway will help reduce travel time, lower transport costs, and boost regional trade and job creation. Total Bilateral Trade Volume between Uganda and Rwanda reached $291 million in 2023; with Uganda being the major exporter. Corn/Maize, Sugars and sugar confectionery, Unglazed Ceramics, Sorghum, Milling products, and Cereals are major traded products. Construction under the additional financing is scheduled to resume in early January 2026 and conclude by December 2029, with full project completion expected in 2030.
African rating agency key to end $75 billion loss from global Misratings
By: ThinkBusiness Africa At a two-day high-level conference held in Dakar, Senegal, experts called for the establishment of “Africa Credit Rating” while noting that miscalculations from global agencies (Fitch,S&P, Moody) are costing the continent $74.5 billion investment loss annually. The Dakar submit organized by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the African Union Development Agency – NEPAD (AUDA-NEPAD), brought together policymakers, central bank officials, economists and development partners from across West Africa to explore how the continent can consolidate its gains in international financial and climate governance. During the session policymakers discussed strengthening Africa’s financial ecosystem, which include: the reforms to domestic capital markets, regional development banks, and the Africa Credit Ratings initiative. The proposed regional credit Agency will provide a more accurate and unbiased rating insight for the continent’s economies and financial institutions to global investors; and save the continent $74.5 billion annual loss from biased miscalculation. The “Big Three” rating agencies—Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P— have been accused of applying a negative bias when assessing African economies. These negative ratings often lead to higher borrowing costs for African countries and, in some cases, make it harder for them to access international financial markets. “Sub-Saharan Africa’s external debt stock reached $863 billion in 2023, equivalent to 169% of total exports,” said Dr. Bartholomew Armah, Chief Economist at AUDA-NEPAD. “With average bond yields at 9.8%, debt-service costs now consume 16% of export revenues, a massive drain on future development.” He said. Earlier this year, African Export-Import bank (Afreximbank), a major Pan-African multilateral financial institution, was downgraded by both Moody’s and Fitch. This action generated significant controversy, as it targeted an institution critical to continental trade finance. In June, Fitch Ratings downgraded Afreximbank Long-Term Issuer to BBB- from BBB Similarly, Moody’s Ratings downgraded the bank’s Long-Term Issuer to Baa2 from Baa1. The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) publicly criticized Fitch’s downgrade, calling it “flawed” and reflective of a misunderstanding of how African financial institutions are governed and their exposures are legally secured. Kenya, suffered a downgrade from S&P global—its credit rating was reduced to B- from B. The East African nation faced high borrowing costs due to this downgrade. Many argue that the “big three” data collection process relies on subjective assessments and lacks a deep understanding of unique African economic realities, such as the size of the informal economy or the impact of diaspora remittances.
CBN recapitalization shines: Fitch ranks Nigeria ahead of African counterpart
By: ThinkBusiness Africa The ongoing banking sector recapitalisation programme initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has received strong commendation from global credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings, which recently affirmed that Nigeria’s progress in strengthening its banking capital buffers is outpacing its Sub-Saharan African (SSA) peers. The rating agency in its “Sub-Saharan African Banks’ New Paid-In Capital Rules” report noted the impressive strides made by Nigerian banks to meet the aggressive new capital requirements, a development seen as crucial for bolstering the financial system’s resilience against economic shocks and enabling the banks to underwrite larger-scale transactions necessary for the government’s ambitious The scale of the CBN’s recapitalisation exercise distinguishes it within the SSA financial landscape. In comparative terms, Nigeria’s new minimum capital requirement of N500 billion ($327 million) for banks with international licences is significantly higher than the equivalent thresholds in other major African banking markets. For instance, the minimum capital levels in major financial hubs like South Africa ($90 million) and Egypt ($104.7 million) are substantially lower. While countries like Kenya and members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) have also pursued capital increases, the sheer magnitude of the CBN’s 1900% increase (from N25bn to N500bn) and the speed of compliance by top-tier banks have positioned Nigeria as a clear leader in fortifying banking sector capital buffers across the region. In its recent report, the agency confirmed that the majority of Fitch-rated Nigerian banks are “generally on track” to meet the revised minimum paid-in capital threshold before the March 31, 2026, deadline. “Nigeria’s new requirements stand out from those of other markets in terms of business model differentiation and scale.” Fitch said. Several top-tier banks have already secured or are nearing the required capital targets, primarily through rights issues and public offers. Notably: In Nigeria, the fresh capital needed to meet the new requirements amounts to 1.1% of GDP. The CBN has explicitly linked the reforms to broader economic development goals, aiming to reduce credit concentration risks and support larger-scale lending. CBN Governor, Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has consistently maintained that the initiative is critical for creating “stronger, healthier, and more resilient banks” capable of absorbing losses. While the top-tier banks are moving ahead, Fitch Ratings indicated that Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) or licence downgrades remain a more likely path for some third-tier banks that may struggle to raise the substantial capital required. The Central Bank has provided a clear 24-month window, which commenced on April 1, 2024, for banks to comply.
Strong investor confidence: Nigeria’s $2.35 billion Eurobond sales records 477% oversubscription
By: ThinkBusiness Africa West Africa’s largest economy has successfully priced its dual tranche $2.35 billion Eurobond issuance on Wednesday attracting bids that resulted in a colossal 477% oversubscription. The unprecedented demand, with total orders soaring to an estimated $13 billion, marks a significant milestone for the Nigerian government’s reform agenda and its re-entry into the International Capital Market. A statement from Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) said the successful issuance by the, underscores the global community’s bullish outlook on Africa’s largest economy, despite United States president’s recent threat of military invasion over the alleged killing of Christians in the country. The spectacular oversubscription rate far exceeded the $2.35 billion target, signaling strong international endorsement of the fiscal and monetary reforms being pursued by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. Wale Edun, Nigeria finance minister commenting on the huge investor’s appetite said “this successful market access demonstrates the international community’s continued confidence in Nigeria’s reform trajectory”. He said. The $2.35 billion dual-tranche sale structure provides investors with options for long-term maturity: The yields, which were priced at just above 9 percent for the long-dated notes, are considered positive for the government as it manages its debt service obligations, especially when compared to some of its existing Eurobonds that carry double-digit coupon rates. According to DMO The robust investor appetite came from a geographically diverse pool, including investors from the UK, North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, indicating broad market acceptance of Nigeria’s risk profile. The funds raised from this crucial Eurobond issuance are earmarked for two primary strategic purposes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) during its spring meeting in Washington praised the Nigerian authorities for sound economic policies citing that the country has achieved “macro-economic stability.” In May, Moody global ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term issuer ratings from Caa1 to B3 and changed the outlook to Stable from Positive. Similarly, Fitch Ratings had Upgraded the country’s credit rating from ‘B-‘ to ‘B’ with a stable outlook in April. These upgrades played a part in improving the overall creditworthiness, allowing for better pricing of Nigeria securities.
South African private sector contracts: weak demand snaps seven-month Growth Streak
By: ThinkBusiness Africa South Africa’s private sector activity contracted in October for the first time in seven months, as firms reported a renewed and sharp downturn in new orders and output, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released by S&P Global on Wednesday. The headline S&P Global South Africa PMI fell to 48.8 in October, down from 50.2 in September. This dip below the crucial 50.0 threshold, show business has contracted signaling a significant deterioration in overall business conditions. Data from the survey points to weakening demand as the primary catalyst for the contraction.The volume of new orders fell at the fastest rate since March, with surveyed companies citing a significant reduction in customer spending power amidst an uncertain domestic economic climate. Foreign sales also experienced a decline, marking the quickest drop in nearly a year, indicating that global demand is not compensating for the domestic slump. Despite the severe demand-side weakness, supplier delivery times improved Firms noted reduced logistics issues and lower input demand easing pressure on vendors. Also, input price inflation eased; moderating global price pressures, coupled with the local currency (Rand) appreciation up 7% against the US Dollar year-to-date, contributed to a gentler increase in purchase prices. Business Confidence remained positive, with 34% of firms expecting activity to rise over the next 12 months. However, this sentiment is still relatively subdued, only slightly better than the 50-month low recorded in September, highlighting that while firms see an eventual recovery, they remain highly concerned about the near-term economic path. The data confirms that despite infrastructural and logistical improvements—which were a major headwind earlier in the year—the core issue for South Africa’s private sector remains the constrained consumer and business spending environment. In the second quarter of this year South Africa’s trade surplus contracted to R177.1 billion ($9.57 billion) from R211 billion ( $11.41 billion) in the first three months of the year, as the value of goods exports decreased more than that of imports. The main culprits for this decline were a decrease in exports of base metals, such as iron and steel, and vehicles. The decrease was due to lack of demand.
Nigeria launches $2.25 billion Eurobond sales to address budget deficit
The Nigerian government returns to international markets with a $2.25 Billion dual-tranche eurobond offering on Wednesday, to secure much-needed foreign currency to address its fiscal needs and manage maturing debt obligations. The issuance, follows the National Assembly’s approval of the borrowing plan, which aims to partially finance the 2025 fiscal budget deficit and, crucially, refinance a significant portion of the country’s existing dollar-denominated debt. The $2.25 billion offering is structured as Senior Unsecured Notes across two distinct maturities, targeting global investors seeking higher yields from emerging markets: A portion of the proceeds will be utilized to provide essential capital for the funding of the 2025 fiscal deficit. Nigeria has a total budget deficit of N 13 trillion ($9 billion). The sale is expected to help the Debt Management Office (DMO) refinance the $1.18 billion Eurobond maturing in November 2025. This liability management operation is critical for extending the maturity profile of Nigeria’s external debt and reducing short-term repayment pressures. The borrowing increases the west African country’s total public debt stock. However, Nigeria’s Debt-to-GDP ratio remains within internationally accepted thresholds. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Nigeria Debt-to-GDP could ease to 36.4% before the end of 2025; down from about 39.4% in early 2025, well below the World Bank/IMF recommended threshold of 55% for developing countries. Meanwhile, Nigeria president Bola Ahmed Tinubu has also recently requested approval for an additional N1.15 trillion domestic loan to cover an unfunded gap created by budget increases by the National Assembly.
Ghana’s inflation hits 8.0% in October lowest in over four years
By: Chidozie Nwali Ghana’s annual consumer price inflation (CPI) rate has dropped to 8.0% year-on-year in October 2025, down from 9.4% in September, according to figures released by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) on Wednesday. This milestone marks the tenth consecutive month of slowing price growth and represents the lowest inflation level recorded since June 2021, a period of over four years. Crucially, the rate is now within the central bank of Ghana’s medium-term target of 8%, which operates within a tolerance band of 6–10%. The sustained decline in inflation since the beginning of the year—which peaked at a much higher rate in late 2024—is seen as a powerful signal that the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts, coupled with the Bank of Ghana’s tighter monetary policy, are yielding intended results. The achievement of the central bank’s target band is a major boost to the country’s economic credibility, particularly in the context of its ongoing programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In October, IMF and Ghanaian authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement on the fifth review of Ghana’s three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program. About US$385 million will be disbursed once the agreement receives approval from the IMF Management and Executive Board. The disinflation in October was largely broad-based, with significant moderation recorded in both the food and non-food categories: In September, The Bank of Ghana (BOG) slashed its key interest rate by a record 350 basis points from 25% to 21.5%, citing a sustained decline in inflation and an improving macroeconomic outlook. The latest inflation data strengthens the argument for a potential further easing of the monetary policy stance in the coming months, which would aim to stimulate private sector credit growth and broader economic activity.
Trump military threat sends Nigerian assets plunging
Nigerian financial markets opened the first week of November in red, as investors initiated a sell-off across equities, currency, and fixed income segments following an unprecedented threat of military intervention from the United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump. The President’s statement, issued over the weekend, designating Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” over alleged religious persecution and threatening potential military action or aid suspension – if Nigerian Government fails to stop the alleged killing of Christians. This statement injected severe geopolitical risk into Nigerian assets, triggering sharp declines on Monday and continued volatility through Tuesday. Nigerian president Bola Ahmed Tinubu has refuted the claims made by president Trump stating that “Nigeria opposes religious persecution and does not encourage it”. He added that Christians are not being targeted in the country. The equities market bore the brunt of the immediate investor panic, translating directly into wealth erosion. On Monday, the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) All-Share Index (ASI) tumbled by 0.25 percent, closing at 153,739.11 points, down from Friday’s close. This single-day decline wiped out an estimated N247 billion in market capitalization, bringing the total market value down to N97.58 trillion. On Tuesday, the index shed another 0.72% to settle at 152,629.6 points – down from 153,739.1 points on Monday. Total trading volume dropped by a staggering 88 percent, indicating that investors were reluctant to participate, either by purchasing perceived cheap assets or liquidating positions at depressed prices. Notable losses were recorded in major blue-chip stocks, including Aradel Holdings (-9.21%) and Access Corporation (-3.07%). The foreign exchange market experienced immediate pressure as portfolio investors sought to convert local currency assets back into the U.S. dollar, exacerbating existing liquidity concerns. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) showed the Naira depreciated by 1.03 percent on Monday. The local currency closed at N1,436.34/$, losing N14.61 against the dollar compared to its closing rate of N1,421.73/$ on Friday. The country’s foreign debt market, represented by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Eurobonds, saw ” selloffs” as investors repriced the nation’s risk. The average yield on the 14 outstanding FGN Eurobonds saw upward pressure following the threat on Monday. While data on Tuesday indicated a possible attempt at stabilization, with the average yield noted to have fallen slightly from 8.28 percent to 8.17 percent, the overarching sentiment remains bearish due to the elevated political risk. Analysts note that this high-risk environment could complicate Nigeria’s recent plans to refinance its maturing debt obligations, including the $1.1 billion Eurobond due in November 2025.
Nigeria’s Crude oil price trades above benchmark, easing fiscal pressure
By: ThinkBusiness Africa Nigeria’s fiscal outlook received a significant boost this week as the price of its premium crude oil blend, Bonny Light, surged to $78.62 per barrel, comfortably trading above the Federal Government’s $75 per barrel benchmark set for the 2025 national budget. This development provides a much-needed financial buffer,creating an immediate revenue surplus that can help fund the N54.99 trillion budget and potentially reduce the nation’s rising deficit trajectory; after experiencing a significant price dip in the second quarter of this year. The latest trading figures show Nigeria’s crude outperforming key global indices. While the international benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hover around $65 and $60 per barrel respectively, Bonny Light is currently commanding a high premium. Bonny Light (Nigeria) $78.62 April to September Bonny light crude faced significant downward pressure due to the decision by OPEC+ to gradually increase production and unwind 137,000 barrels per day into the market as voluntary cuts created a market uncertainty about oversupply. Weakening global demand forecasts, driven by trade tensions and economic slowdowns in major consumers like China, pushed prices lower. The price dropped as low as $64.83 per barrel in May and averaged around $70.20 per barrel in September. Traders attribute the resilience in the price of Bonny Light to a combination of declining global inventories and steady, high demand from Asian refiners for premium, low-sulphur grades. Every dollar the crude price trades above the $75 benchmark translates directly into higher foreign exchange earnings for the Federation Account, offering a crucial lifeline to Nigeria’s dollar-constrained economy. The higher-than-expected revenue stream can help mitigate the projected N13 trillion budget deficit and reduce the need for excessive domestic or external borrowing to finance infrastructural and social programs. Improved oil revenue generally supports the Naira’s stability by boosting foreign reserves and strengthening the government’s capacity to meet its obligations. Crude oil sales accounts for over 80% of the West African economy foreign exchange. Despite the favorable price, analysts caution that the full benefits of the surge will only be realized if Nigeria can consistently meet its production targets. The 2025 budget is hinged not only on a $75 price but also on a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) (including condensates). Recent data from September 2025 showed Nigeria’s combined crude and condensate production at approximately 1.58 million bpd, which is significantly below the budget target. Nigeria’s peak oil production this year was 1.8 million bpd in January. Nigeria’s current OPEC+ crude oil quota is set at 1.5 mbpd until the end of 2026. While the country has recently shown improved compliance, hitting around 96% of the quota in August 2025, security and infrastructure issues continue to hamper its ability to reach its national capacity target of over 2.0 mbpd. Senator Heineken Lokpobir, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, has reiterated the government’s commitment to seeking an upward revision of the OPEC+ quota and intensifying efforts to combat crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, which remain the main inhibitors to stable output.