South Africa’s trade surplus narrows in October to $909M million

By: Chidozie Nwali

South Africa’s run of trade surpluses continued in October, but the figure came in weaker than expected, according to preliminary data released by the South African Revenue Service (SARS) on Friday.

The country recorded a preliminary trade surplus of R15.58 billion ($908.94 million) for the month of October 2025; a significant dip from the revised surplus of R22.3 billion ( $1.30 billion) recorded in September. The figure also fell short of the R20 billion surplus ( $1.17 billion) that analysts polled by Reuters had forecast.

The narrowing of the surplus was primarily a result of a sharp increase in imports, which outpaced the growth in exports.

Exports climbed to R192.2 billion ($11.21 billion) in October, up from R186.4 billion ($10.87 billion) in September, an increase of approximately 3.1%.

Imports surged to R176.6 billion ( $10.30 billion), up from R164.8 billion ( $9.61 billion) in September, marking a substantial increase of about 7.2%.

The jump in imports was largely attributed to higher domestic purchases of energy and manufacturing inputs, specifically: crude oil, petroleum oils, and original-equipment components (likely for the automotive sector).

The trade balance figures include trade with fellow Southern African Customs Union (SACU) members: Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, and Namibia (BELN).

Despite the month-on-month contraction, the year-to-date preliminary trade balance surplus (for the period ending October 2025) remains substantial at R142.7 billion ( $8.32 billion).

However, this is still lower than the R148.1 billion ($8.63 billion) surplus recorded over the comparable period ending October 2024, highlighting the challenges the South African economy faces amid global economic uncertainties and domestic infrastructure constraints.