Oil prices surge past $100 as middle east tensions escalate
LAGOS — Global oil prices skyrocketed on Monday, April 13, 2026, with Brent crude jumping over 7% to trade at $102.31 a barrel. The surge followed the collapse of diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran, triggering immediate supply concerns as the U.S. Navy reportedly prepared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The spike marks a dramatic reversal from last week’s brief cooling of prices. By 22:04 GMT, Brent crude futures rose by $7.11, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 8.14% to reach $104.43 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most vital oil transit chokepoint, handling approximately 20% of global daily petroleum consumption. Market analysts attribute the price volatility to a “fear premium” as military posturing intensifies. The failure of recent negotiations in Singapore has heightened the risk of prolonged disruptions to maritime traffic. Shipping insurance rates have already begun to climb, and several Middle Eastern producers, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have reportedly signaled potential production adjustments if navigation through the Strait remains compromised. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that if the blockade proceeds, prices could breach the $110 mark within weeks. While some relief may come from a potential release of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the market remains largely driven by supply-side anxiety and the lack of a clear diplomatic path forward.
Nigeria’s crude Oil output hits 1.84mbpd as Finance Minister commends regulator
LAGOS — Nigeria’s daily crude oil production has climbed to 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd), surpassing the federal government’s 2026 budget benchmark and signaling a significant recovery for the nation’s primary revenue source. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, lauded the milestone during a meeting at the ministry’s headquarters on Thursday. Edun credited the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for its role in stabilizing the sector, noting that the increase aligns with the economic mandates set by President Bola Tinubu. The current output represents a sharp 40.5% rebound from the 1.31 mbpd recorded in February 2026, a period marred by technical disruptions and facility maintenance. “It is heartening that you can tell us that you are doing 1.84 million barrels per day. That is fantastic news,” Edun told NUPRC Chief Executive Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan. While expressing satisfaction, the Minister urged the regulator to push toward a “magic figure” of 2 mbpd to further ease fiscal pressures and support the national debt profile. This production surge comes at a critical time for the Nigerian economy The 1.84 mbpd figure sits comfortably above the government’s conservative budget estimate of 1.8 mbpd. With Brent crude trading near $109 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sustained production at this level could significantly improve foreign exchange inflows. Crude oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, accounting for approximately 50% of total export earnings. Mrs. Eyesan attributed the growth to ongoing reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), including the “drill or drop” provisions which encourage activity on dormant acreages. The Commission is currently finalizing the technical stages of the 2025 Licensing Round, which is expected to bring new indigenous and international players into the upstream sector to sustain the upward trajectory. Period Production (mbpd) Status January 2026 1.49 Base line February 2026 1.31 Technical deep April 2026 1.84 Target met Target 2.0+ Presidential mandate
Oil prices surge 7% as Trump vows to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’
LAGOS — Global oil prices jumped more than 5% Thursday morning following a televised address by President Trump, who warned that the United States would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next several weeks. The remarks effectively ended a brief market rally fueled by hopes of an immediate ceasefire, signaling a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. The international benchmark Brent crude surged 7.4% to reach $108.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed over 7% to trade at $107.24. The spike reversed Wednesday’s gains, which had seen prices dip below $100 on speculation that the conflict was nearing a diplomatic resolution. Speaking from the White House on Wednesday night, the President shifted toward more aggressive rhetoric, stating that while military objectives are “nearing completion,” the U.S. would intensify strikes to “finish the job” within the next two to three weeks. “We are going to hit them extremely hard… We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong,” the President said during the address. This follows Tuesday ultimatum , were Trump told US allies – specifically targeting the United Kingdom that countries facing severe jet fuel shortages must either buy energy directly from the United States or deploy their own militaries to “take” control of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors reacted sharply to the lack of a clear plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz , a vital maritime chokepoint currently blocked due to the hostilities. The continued closure threatens approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply.
Oil Prices surge toward $120 amid Middle East supply crisis
LAGOS — Global oil prices skyrocketed on Wednesday as a near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a massive production slump from OPEC+ nations sent shockwaves through energy markets. Brent crude spiked to $118.20 per barrel in early trading on April 1, 2026, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $102.50. The surge follows a reported collapse in OPEC production, which plummeted by 7.3 million barrels per day in March due to extensive infrastructure damage and power failures across the Gulf region. The market remains highly volatile as the International Energy Agency (IEA) attempts to stabilize supply by releasing 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. However, the halt of 20 million barrels per day of exports through the Hormuz chokepoint has created a deficit that emergency stocks have yet to offset. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned on Monday that if diplomatic efforts fail to reopen seaborne routes, crude oil could near $200 per barrel by the end of the second quarter. Conversely, a breakthrough in negotiations could see prices rapidly retreat toward the $80 level. For now, conflicting signals from Washington and continued regional instability keep the geopolitical risk premium at its highest level in years.
Middle East supply shock accelerates Dangote Refinery’s regional dominance
LAGOS — The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has significantly ramped up gasoline exports across the African continent, filling a critical supply gap as the escalating conflict in the Middle East chokes traditional energy corridors. The 650,000 barrel-per-day facility in Lekki is now repositioning West Africa from a chronic fuel importer to a regional energy hub. This shift comes as the Iran-Israel conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, stalling the flow of cheap, subsidized imports from the Persian Gulf and Europe that have historically dominated African markets. Regional supply pivot Shipping data for March 2026 from Kpler indicates that the refinery has dispatched over 450,000 metric tonnes of refined petroleum products to regional neighbors. Key beneficiaries of these diverted flows include Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Cameroon, as these nations seek to bypass the high insurance premiums and logistical delays currently plaguing shipments from the Middle East. Impact on Market Prices While the surge in exports provides a lifeline for the region, it coincides with a period of extreme price volatility. Global crude prices have surged past $120 per barrel due to the conflict, forcing the refinery to adjust its exit prices to reflect international feedstock costs. In Nigeria, despite the increase in local production, pump prices have faced upward pressure, recently crossing the ₦1,300 per liter mark. However, officials note that without the Dangote facility, the region would be facing total fuel “stockouts” rather than just price hikes. Capacity and Euro-5 Standards The refinery, which achieved full operational capacity in early 2026, is producing Euro-5 standard fuels. This higher quality is allowing West African nations to accelerate their transition away from “dirty” sulfur-heavy fuels, a move that was previously hindered by the lack of specialized refining infrastructure in the region. As the Middle East crisis persists, the Dangote Group is reportedly in talks with South Africa and Kenya to establish long-term supply contracts.
Nigeria’s crude production falls 9% in February as infrastructure gaps persist
· Monthly Decline: Nigeria’s total oil production (crude and condensates) fell 8.6% month-on-month to 1.48 mbpd in February 2026. · Crude Shortfall: Actual crude oil dipped to 1.31 mbpd, placing Nigeria at 88% compliance with its 1.5 mbpd OPEC quota. · Fiscal Gap: Output remains significantly below the 1.84 mbpd 2026 budget benchmark, despite high global Brent prices. LAGOS — Nigeria’s daily crude oil production fell to 1.48 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February 2026, according to the latest data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The dip represents an 8.6% decline from the 1.62 mbpd recorded in January, complicating the federal government’s efforts to meet the 1.78 mbpd production benchmark set in the 2026 “Budget of Resilience.” Production Breakdown The total output for the month includes both crude oil and condensates. While crude oil production alone tumbled from 1.43 mbpd in January to 1.32 mbpd in February, the volume of condensates saw a marginal increase, partially cushioning the overall deficit. Industry analysts attribute the contraction to technical disruptions at key offshore terminals and persistent infrastructure challenges in the Niger Delta. The decline marks a setback for the “Project 1.5 Million Barrels” initiative, which had seen production steadily climbing throughout the final quarter of 2025. Budgetary and OPEC Implications The production shortfall creates a widening gap between actual output and the 1.5 mbpd quota allocated to Nigeria by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Despite Brent crude prices hovering above $85 per barrel due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Nigeria’s inability to meet its volume targets limits the Federation’s capacity to build foreign exchange reserves and fund critical infrastructure projects. Broader Economic Context The NUPRC report comes as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) prepares to release its Q1 2026 GDP report. The oil sector, which remains the primary source of foreign exchange for the country, is expected to face renewed scrutiny if production does not rebound in March. The Federal Government has previously stated its ambition to reach 2.5 mbpd by the end of the year, a target that now requires a significant surge in both security and technical efficiency across the nation’s oil assets.
Oil prices surge past $110 per barrel as geopolitical tensions escalate
LAGOS — Global oil prices surged past the $110 per barrel mark on Thursday, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and threats to critical energy infrastructure triggered a massive risk premium in the commodity markets. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped more than 5% in early trading to hit a peak of $112.84 per barrel. The rally marks a significant breach of psychological resistance levels, driven primarily by fears of supply disruptions following heightened friction between Washington and Tehran. The price spike follows recent threats by U.S. officials to target Iranian energy assets, coupled with retaliatory strikes that have reportedly impacted gas facilities in Qatar. Traders are particularly concerned about the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world’s petroleum liquid consumption passes daily. Market analysts warn that the current volatility is rooted in “infrastructure vulnerability” rather than simple supply-demand imbalances. With global inventories already thin and OPEC+ maintaining strict production discipline, any sustained disruption to Gulf exports could push prices toward $150 per barrel. While Brent crude led the rally, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also saw gains, trading near $98.70 per barrel. The widening spread between the two benchmarks—now exceeding $13—underscores the market’s assessment that the immediate risks are concentrated in Middle Eastern supply chains rather than North American production. The surge is expected to have immediate downstream implications, with energy experts predicting a sharp rise in the landing cost of refined petroleum products. For import-dependent regions, this price movement likely signals a forthcoming adjustment in domestic fuel pump prices and increased pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
