South Africa’s private sector returns to growth despite global trade headwinds
South Africa’s private sector nudged back into expansionary territory in March, as a recovery in domestic output and a hiring uptick managed to offset a sharp decline in export orders and souring business sentiment. The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.8 in March, up from the neutral mark of 50.0 recorded in February. A reading above 50.0 signals growth in the sector, marking a cautious but significant turnaround for the continent’s most industrialized economy. The return to growth was primarily driven by a stabilization in business activity and a renewed appetite for recruitment. Companies reported increased hiring to manage backlogs, suggesting a level of domestic resilience. However, this internal momentum faced stiff resistance from international factors. New export orders suffered a notable slump, largely attributed to logistical disruptions and dampened global demand linked to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Despite the headline growth, business confidence fell to its lowest level in several months. The combination of high energy costs and a volatile Rand has intensified “input cost inflation,” forcing many firms to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach regarding long-term capital investments. The report noted that while firms are currently expanding their workforces to meet immediate needs, the sustainability of this growth remains tethered to global oil price stability and the resolution of shipping bottlenecks.
Nigeria’s private sector sees 16-month growth streak as PMI hits 53.2
LAGOS – Nigeria’s economic recovery maintained its momentum in March 2026, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 53.2 points, according to the latest report from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). This marks the sixteenth consecutive month of broad-based expansion in the country’s private sector. The 53.2 reading, up from previous months, signifies a strengthening of business conditions across the federation. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates growth, while anything below signifies contraction. The sustained expansion since late 2024 suggests a stabilizing macroeconomic environment despite lingering global pressures. Broad-Based Growth Across Subsectors The growth was notably widespread, with 31 out of the 36 surveyed subsectors reporting expansion. The industrial sector led the charge, posting a sector-specific PMI of 54.0. Within that category, 14 out of 17 subsectors—ranging from cement to food processing—recorded significant gains in production volumes and new orders. The services and agricultural sectors also remained firmly in expansionary territory. Business owners cited improved access to foreign exchange and a gradual moderation in input cost inflation as primary drivers for the increased activity. Employment and Inventory Gains Beyond output, the CBN report highlighted a “healthy” trend in the labor market. Employment levels across the surveyed firms rose for the fifth straight month, as companies scaled up operations to meet rising consumer demand. Inventory levels also climbed, suggesting that businesses are becoming more confident in future sales and are stockpiling raw materials to avoid supply chain disruptions. Outlook for 2026 Analysts suggest that the consistent PMI data aligns with the federal government’s 4.1% GDP growth projection for 2026. While the Stanbic IBTC PMI showed a slight dip earlier in the year due to cash flow constraints, the CBN’s broader survey suggests that the mid-tier and large-scale industrial sectors are now operating at their highest capacity in nearly two years. As the second quarter begins, the focus remains on whether the CBN can maintain current interest rate levels without dampening this hard-won industrial momentum.
