Monetary policy on point, but fiscal measures remain insufficient
A year after his appointment as the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso has come the same conclusions as many of his predecessors – Nigeria’s successful monetary policy is dependent on appropriate fiscal policies, measures, and programmes. For instance, in his presentation after the monetary policy committee in September, the governor said: “Members (monetary policy committee) therefore reiterated the need to work in close collaboration with the fiscal authority to address the current upward pressure on energy prices. The MPC noted the continued growth in money supply, recognizing the need to curtail excess liquidity in the system as well address foreign exchange demand pressure. Members were also concerned about the growing level of fiscal deficit but acknowledge the commitment of the fiscal authority not to resort to monetary financing through ways and means. Furthermore, members observed a strong correlation between FAAC releases and liquidity levels in the banking system as well as its impact on exchange rate.” From this statement, it is not only clear that current macroeconomic stability measures of the Bank are hindered by fiscal policy measures but that there is a lingering mindset in the government at all levels that the solution to all problems is to spend. This mindset is also responsible for the poor choices made when it comes to expenditure. While energy prices are rising following the removal of subsidies, it been exacerbated on the back of the volatility and weakness of the exchange rate that arises from pressures from FAAC releases. Fig. 1. Changes in fuel prices showing dramatic changes since June 2023. As also shared above, the growth in money supply and excess liquidity in the financial system, exerting pressures on prices and exchange rate, also originates from fiscal expenditures. The governor also expressed concern over the growth in deficit financing of the budget. After his appointment in September 2023, Yemi Cardoso has set to do three major things – fight the twin elements of macroeconomic instability in exchange rates weakness and volatility, and inflation, strengthen the country’s financial system, and clean the rot in the apex bank in relation to lose monetary policy arising from development banking. By suspending all development banking measures, the governor has cut the over N10 trillion liquidity through credit subsidies, and strengthening the banking system through the ongoing new capital requirements. However, establishing macroeconomic stability remains a tough challenge. Notwithstanding, the Bank, under Cardoso’s leadership, has grown the country’s external reserves by nearly 20 percent since September 2023, with reserves up from the US $33 billion in 2023 to US $39 billion in September 2024. The macroeconomic instability challenge is also a common theme in the analysis provided by all monetary committee members in their statements released last week. It is on the basis of this that all members of the MPC voted to raise the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points from 26.5 percent to 27.25 percent except Philip Ikeazor, the deputy governor in charge of financial stability, according to the personal statements released by the Bank last week, To see the changes in the Nigeria’s debt dynamics since the Q1 2024, ThinkBusiness Africa checked the debt data releases on the debt management office (DMO) website. It observed that the latest data for Q2 2024 has not been released. It thus means that for this first in this decade, the subsequent quarter has elapsed without the releases of the latest debt data for the previous quarter. If this persists, doubts will begin to set in about whether the government is hiding the latest data of deficits and debts or seeking to manipulate the level of deficits and debts as done under President Muhammadu Buhari when the government hid the data on ways and means until the twilight days of his administration. Since June 2019, all debt data releases were done in the middle of the following quarter.
NELFUND should support Nigeria’s professional needs and not certificates for the sake of it
There is a sense that every measure of what constitute reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu seeks to deal with the metrics rather than the conditions. For instance, there have been two sets of broad changes made under his presidency. The first set is the market based economic changes of the removal of fuel subsidies during his inauguration speech and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market two weeks after. Those two changes focused on the prices rather than the market conditions that drive the underlying prices. Rather than seek to understand and change the market conditions that deliver the unacceptable prices, the President had proceeded to change the prices and expected the market conditions to align. Of course, that did not happen. The other set of “reforms” is the different categories of financial support provided to different groups of people on the back of worsening economic crisis under his leadership. We now have a deepening and broadening of the social support programmes first introduced under President Muhammadu Buhari. In this case also, rather than focus on the underlying challenges around production and productivity, the president has focused on providing different forms of cash transfers which invariably chases the same amount of goods in the economy. However, there is something entirely new about the student loans support. The Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) established last year with an initial N5 billion is a great initiative but requires reforms. The loan is expected to provide increasing access to higher education to those that cannot afford it. With a monthly allowance of N20k and payment of relevant tuition fees, it is expected that 1.2 million students will benefit in the first phase. So far, an estimated near 300,000 students have already applied. But access to higher education has never been a serious problem. Access to quality and relevant higher education is the national problem we face. As it is, the loans are used by any student that needs it, but this does not necessarily means that it is used by the student that really needs it. Since the loans are not means tested, it is not necessarily the most indigent that gets it. So, rather than focus on expanding access to just any course in any higher institution in the country, the resources should be used to support the professional needs of the country. Rather than focus on the financial handicaps of students, the loans are better off supporting the growth and expansion of the professional areas most needed by the country – medical, biological, and technological sciences. These are areas where Nigeria can most benefit in the medium and long ter, using the loans as incentives. It is time for Nigeria to move beyond elements of socialism and the democratisation of poverty. The scarce resources available for scholarships should be used to solve Nigeria’s problems and not for personal egos. Spending four years doing courses and attending universities classes that do not add anything serious to knowledge and skills should not be our priority but how to fill the enormous gaps in the fields of medicine, pharmacy, technology, labs science, electrical, civil, and other forms of engineering fields. These are those that require incentives to study those courses. Indeed, because of the length of some of these courses, the relative higher costs of studying them, and the perceived faint interests by the government in these areas, many intelligent and brilliant students avoid them. By also focusing on the excellence of students, irrespective of financial background, which the government is not able to judge in the applications anyway, the government will be providing incentives for excellence. In conclusion, Nigerians have always loved education. Though that has metamorphosed into the erroneous love for certificates, rather than knowledge. It has also led to the rapid increases in the number of universities without commensurate increase in knowledge and skills. A corollary of that is the many degrees in our universities that have no further implications than the certificates awarded. It is no wonder that the managing director of NELFUND, Akintunde Sawyerr believes the students should be further supported with job opportunities if they do not get one two years after their service year. NELFUND should not preoccupy itself with that. It should be about supporting the best students to be relevant to Nigeria’s economic growth and development. So, instead of providing across all kinds of courses in all kinds of higher institution, the fund should support Nigeria’s priorities and expected outcomes. I thank you.
How not to remove fuel subsidies …. The vicious cycle of foreign exchange liberalization on fuel prices
Since the President announced the removal of fuel subsidies on May 29th, 2023, it has been difficult to estimate the accurate subsidies been paid by the government. The government is only not transparent, it is also not clear what volume of petroleum products is imported into the country and how demand and smuggling across the border is changing in response to changes in prices. Fuel prices, demand, and the level of smuggling area also affected by changes in the exchange rates while lags in timing for payment and receipt of imported products also makes it difficult to estimate levels of subsidy. Finally, the government /NNPC has not been forthcoming about the dynamics of the volume of fuel imported since the announcement of the removal of fuel subsidies by the President. Though there are many variables, and these variables are shifting, ThinkBusiness analysis show that the most devastating effect on fuel prices have come from changes in the exchange rate. As argued in the piece [insert link] the floating of the Naira on June 14th have been done without understanding its implications on fuel prices. This means that the government did not think through the implications of another major policy so soon after removing fuel subsidy before going ahead. It shows a gross lack of understanding of how reforms are handled that President Tinubu and his team thought that the two policies could not be contradictory in the short term. Without the exchange rate volatility that followed exchange rate reform, the removal of fuel subsidy would have been a one shot increase in price. The exchange rate changes, therefore, contributed to the rise in fuel prices more than any other thing. In June 2023, crude oil prices averaged about US $71 per barrel, about the same price this week. Since June 2023, whereas crude oil prices have been largely flat as shown in fig. 1 Nigeria’s fuel prices has increased by over 500 percent, as shown in fig. 2. Fig. 1. Nigeria’s Crude oil prices, production, and OPEC Quota. The table below compares the price changes in fuel in six countries in the last seventeen months since fuel subsidy removal. Comparing the changes in prices rather than differences in absolute prices allows us to focus on what is driving the changes. Without any change in policy or taxation in these countries, all the other prices responded to changes in the price of crude oil and other internal industry conditions, but Nigeria largely responded to the changes in the value of the naira against the US dollar. Fig. 2. The Changes in fuel prices in six countries, including Nigeria The president and his team have tacitly agreed that the casual and non-preparedness of the removal of fuel subsidy has led to some chaos. What they have not admitted to is the scale of not only not considering the implications for prices of food and transport, but that the president thought that the market will sort itself and the policy was taken in isolation. Fig. 3. The Exchange rate of the Naira against the US dollar. Unlike in the past, it thus appears the government is determined to see through the removal of fuel subsidies. From all indications, the government is currently passing on to Nigerians all fuel price changes arising from all the price changes relating to exchange rates, crude oil, transports, and all other related costs. However, the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the removal of fuel subsidy and the resultant fuel prices changes can only be minimised through stable exchange rates. With stable exchange rate, fuel prices will now only be affected by changes in the market conditions of the industry and not how the exchange rate shift prices significantly. And the entrance of the products from Dangote refinery will not help. Though supply have increased from Dangote refineries and the government has allowed the payment of crude in Naira, it does not change the fact that crude oil and its by products are international commodities and that removal of subsidy automatically integrates the Nigerian market into a global supply and demand chain. In the context, the outlook for a stable fuel price is weak. The government has focused on the metric and not the conditions. The government has focused on prices rather than working on the market conditions that improves stability and predictability for Nigerian consumers. And this is the most fundamental flaw of the reforms the government has embarked on. Invariably, the government has moved from one price fixing to another. Instead of focusing on improving the market conditions that dictate the price of the fuel and that of the exchange rate, the government has focused on the prices themselves. By focusing on prices, it has now realised that the market conditions do not support the new price targets.
How not to remove fuel subsidies
17 months is a short time in a country’s history, but it can also be a long time. 17 months after the casual statement by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu during his inauguration, many Nigerians are in utter shock. They are shocked that fuel prices have moved from N185 per litre in May 2023 to between N1,100 and N1,300 across the country. That is a staggering 550 percent increase. Some have described it as their worst nightmare. Fig. 1. The dynamics of PMS and diesel prices since June 2017 Wale Edun, the Minister for Finance, and the coordinating minister for the economy said last week that the government no longer pays subsidies on fuel and the foreign exchange. Recently also, the Group Managing Director of the Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC), Mele Kyari argued that the prices of fuel in Nigeria and across West Africa trade corridors needed to match to prevent smuggling from Nigeria, supposedly stressing the motivation for the removal of fuel subsidies in the country. It follows that those in government, whenever they speak, spill two narratives. They argue that the reforms were necessary and there is no alternative. They also argue that Nigerians needed to pay this price for a greater future. However, what is clear, both in government and in public, is that no one could have predicted the dramatic increases in the price of fuel in the last 17 months. The expectation was that the increase in the price of fuel will be a one-off. However, fuel prices have gone up four distinctive times and the expectation is that there will further increases. And the simple reason is not just because the subsidies were not removed in full in June 2023, but because of the volatility of the exchange rate in the period. Combined, there are three dimensions to the crisis that are often absent in most analysis. First, there is no clear path or destination in President Tinubu’s reforms. For many months now, the President and his team have been at pains to explain the rising costs of living as a necessary pain for future growth, as part of a downturn of the global economy, and a necessary adjustment for the future growth in the country. However, these statements are made without context and explanation of the future they see. No one in government has been able to explain how the removal of fuel subsidies and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange will lead to investments, growth, and jobs. The argument here is not that there are no paths, but that the government has not figured that out. Nearly 18 months after the reforms, the government has not provided a concrete path to investments, growth, and jobs. The reason the government has not been able to provide these paths is because it has become obvious that those in government assume that those announcements are the reforms themselves and that “ right pricing” is sufficient to improving market conditions. Second, the floating of the Naira on June 14th have been done without understanding its implications on fuel prices. The government, after supposedly removing fuel subsidies at the start of June last year did not think through the implications of another policy before going ahead. It shows a gross lack of understanding of reforms that President Tinubu and his team thought that the two policies could not be contradictory in the short term. Without the exchange rate volatility that followed exchange rate reform, the removal of fuel subsidy would have been a one shot increase in price. Finally, the hasty, casual, and pedestrian way the removal of fuel subsidy was done also meant the necessary conversation, consultation, and preparation for what replaces or what the resources could be used for was not done with State governments. The outcome is a disparate and incoherent expenditures of newfound windfalls in governments, especially State governments. Fig. 2. State governments have been the largest beneficiary of FAAC since the removal of fuel subsidies The outcome is now different from the many arguments that were constructed by many in favour of the removal of subsidies, including by ThinkBusiness Africa. The argument was that the removal of fuel subsidies will allow greater level of expenditure on education, health, and infrastructure. However, there is no evidence that these expenditure ratios on these items have been significantly more than when the fuel subsidy was in place. These situations persist. The government is not having a debate within itself about what can be done. The federal government is not having the debate or consultation with State governments about what can be done to improve market conditions and not spike the foreign exchange markets. And the government continues to believe the “right pricing” will bring about the investments, growth, and jobs. That same partial analysis has made the World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill suggests that it will take 15 years of continuous reforms for Nigeria to break the cycle of low growth. But Gill did not tell his hosts that this is not the way reforms are done.
Tahir Mamman goofed.
Until last week, very few knew who Tahir Mamman was. It was fitting therefore that he announced himself in a way symptomatic of this government. The minister announced during his interview with Seun Okinbaloye on Sunday Politics that students under the age of 18 will not be allowed to sit the West Africa Examinations Council (WAEC), National Examinations Council (NECO), and the Joint Admissions Matriculation Board (JAMB) exams. According to the Minister, This policy is not new. It is inbuilt in the 6 – 3 – 3 – 4 or the modified 9 – 3 – 4 system of education that started in 1983.Students not yet 18 will not be allowed to write the three major exams in tertiary education – WAEC, NECO, and JAMB.Third, that students will not be able to write these exams if they have not adhered to the 6 – 3 – 3 – 4 structure. The objective of the directive is simple. The minister, and by extension, the government, seeks to prevent immature students gaining admissions into Nigerian universities. However, by simply saying the implementation will commence next year does not solve the problem. Indeed, it is symptomatic of the way and manner serious policy issues have been handled under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. There are many examples, including the fuel subsidy removal, the levy of US $10,000 on the companies with foreign directors, the change of the national anthem, the policy on 5 Percent digital levy, the ongoing 70% on banks windfall profit on exchange rate transactions, and the recent change in the CBN Act. Back to the minister’s announcement, it is possible for a student to have gone through the entire system and not be 18 years old. So, to fix the problem requires going back to the foundation. But that requires hard work and diligence that our policy makers are not known for.The policy affects everyone and applies to everyone from Primary 1 to Senior Secondary School (SSS) three if they are not at the required age to reach 18 when they write the exams. Since last week, I have checked the Ministry’s website, waited to see if a detailed policy document, or guidelines, will be released, and I have not seen one. I suppose the Minister thinks since he has announced it, that is the end. I am not the only one to think in this direction. Dr. Mike Ene, the Secretary General of the Nigerian Union of Teachers (NUT) thinks the same, as interviewed in the Tribune and Punch. If schools and parents only require a year to prepare for this directive, does the minister know how many students will be affected next year? Does the minister have a plan for those students that will be affected, or they don’t matter? Is the minister aware that significant number of students in private schools write other forms of exams and this further alienates them. Is the minister aware that we have near complete polarized education where majority of the private school students are trained with British and US curriculum and the students are prepared for universities abroad. In conclusion, some have argued that underage children in universities is one of the problems. I agree. But the manner you judge a serious policy maker is how he or she focuses on what everyone believes are the top three problems. In Nigeria today, poor quality education is number one problem. And by extension, poor skills. Second, there are over 20 million children our of school. Third, there are extensive poor teaching and learning resources across the country. While the Honorable minister was pursuing the small trophy of ensuring our universities only admit students above 18 years old, I do not know of any credible plan for the over 20 million that are out of school. In conclusion, I do not believe anyone less than 18 years should be in university, except in special circumstances, but this will not work. It will not work because it is rash, ill thought and ill prepared. Policies for and that affect over 200 million people should be thorough, rigorous, and comprehensive. If we are to solve problems, and not just symptoms, our policy makers should not be lazy, distracted, and pedestrian to think of and show how a policy works in practice.
Business confidence rises on expectations of monetary policy stability
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) business survey for July 2024, released last week, has thrown up optimism for increased business confidence in the economy as the Naira is expected to stabilize over a six-month period. Outlook for August, October, and January 2025 shows indices of 7.6, 19.3, and 30.7, respectively, with businesses expecting greater levels of improvement in macroeconomic conditions later in the year. While the Naira is expected to continue to weaken in the coming months, the data shows an expectation that it will appreciate by the end of the year. The survey also shows positive employment outlook. The indices show different employment optimism levels, with agriculture the highest at 14.5, followed by construction at 13.9, and market services the lowest at 4.4. However, the immediate expectation is weak. The index shows a 0.1 for July 2024, down from 3.0 in June. The survey included 1600 businesses across services, industries, and agriculture. It covers expectations for August, October, and January 2025. According to the report, insecurity was the highest constraint to growth and business activity. Other factors are high interest rate, insufficient power supply, and high and multiple taxes. The overall confidence of 0.1 points to a decline of 2 points from June, showing the impact of raise in interest rates in May, given that the survey was taking days ahead of the July monetary policy committee meeting. Nigeria is going through one of the most difficult moments in history, with last year’s macroeconomic conditions and costs of living crisis the worst in a generation. The two-year inflation trajectory that started in April 2022 at 16.82% peaked at 34.19%, after July inflation recorded is 33.4%.
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What’s required is more than a Supreme Court judgement – Ogho Okiti
Given the unprecedented fiscal changes and proposals since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu became Nigeria’s 16th President on May 29th, 2023, it appears he is poised to be the most consequential “fiscal” president since independence. However, our generation’s worst cost of living crisis is preventing Nigerians from paying the required attention. In the last three weeks, three elements have come to light. First was the announcement of a new Federal Ministry of Livestock Development. The second is the bill seeking to create an additional 74 seats for women in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, a near 20% expansion of both houses. The third is the Supreme Court Judgment of July 11th that directed that the local government’s share of federal allocations be paid directly into their accounts. The third is my focus, and there are many dimensions to this judgment. First, since the return to democratic rule in 1999, Nigeria’s supreme court has delivered three important judgements on local governments. In 2004, in a judgement between the federal government and Lagos State, then led by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the court ruled in favour of the State that the federal government had no right to withhold the State’s allocation. The federal government had withheld the State’s local government allocation because it created additional local government development councils. In 2022, under President Muhammadu Buhari, the court ruled against his executive order that empowered the accountant general of the Federation to bypass the State government and disburse federal allocations directly to local governments. The third was the ruling of July 2024. This time the Supreme Court ruled in favour of the federal government and ruled that federal allocation can be directly paid into local government coffers. I am not a lawyer, but the Supreme Court is contradicting itself, especially given that the Constitution has not changed. Nonetheless, it arrived at two important judgements. The first, and I quote …. “It is the position of this court that the federation can pay local government allocation directly to the local government or through the States. In this case, since paying them through the States has not worked, justice demands that federation account should henceforth be paid directly to the local government.” The second ruling of the Supreme Court outlaws the existence of caretaker committees and prevents State governors from removing local government chairpersons. In response, about 13 States have announced local government elections since the ruling. At this point, it is important to ask, what are the problems the President is trying to solve? So, there is no doubt that the president is attempting to solve genuine local government problems, but these problems are best resolved through legislation and political negotiations, and not the Supreme Court. Since the ruling, there is now an ongoing legislation for an independent local government electoral commission. The bill has now passed a second reading. It sounds good, except that it gives the president a role in this. Who is going to tell our legislators that the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is already too powerful? Why not allow representations of political parties on the electoral body based on some predetermined criteria? Why not constitute the body based on some residency? Why should the body have another parallel electoral database? What is independence when the chairperson and six commissioners are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, especially given that Presidents have removed agency heads that have fixed terms even before their terms are over? And what is independent about its own budget that is approved by the Senate? In conclusion, the Supreme Court judgement exposes the most fundamental of Nigeria’s political elite problems since 1999 – the power grab. The tendency to continue to aggregate further and further / more and more powers, depending on which side we are on, is responsible for where we are today. The governors, since 1999 have learnt and graduated on how to aggregate local government powers to themselves. Now, the federal government, through the Supreme Court, has aggregated more powers to the President, rather than provide holistic and practical solutions to the inadequate representation of the people. If the president is genuinely seeking to make the local government independent, or even the States independent for that matter, he should facilitate the legislation that allows it to generate its resources, and not wait for monthly federal allocations. That is the way to ensure true fiscal federalism.
Nigeria got US $19 billion from the World Bank since 2019
ThinkBusiness Africa investigations show that the World Bank has approved support for programmes and projects in Nigeria totalling an estimated US $19 billion since 2019. These are principal amounts approved by the World Bank, either as loans from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) arm or credit grants from the International Development Association (IDA). However, these data masks the difference between the principal amount approved by the Bank and the amount disbursed under the different programmes. The difference is largely accounted for by the inability of the government of Nigeria or the State government to meet the conditions for full disbursements, and predetermined timelines for disbursements. Analysis of the loans and grants shows that the World Bank has supported different categories of projects, including for stabilization and stimulus; renewable energy; gender and girls’ education; business reforms; safety net for the vulnerable in the society; water supply; digital identification; power sector reforms and recovery; and rural access in that period. Indeed, for the 10-year period between 2015 and 2024, the World Bank has given Nigeria a total of US $21 billion in combined IBRD loans of about US $3 billion and IDA credits of US $18 billion. This is about 75% of the total amount the World Bank has given Nigeria since the first loan in 1947. Starting from the first loan to the country in 1947, the World Bank has given a total of about US $39 billion in loans and credit. The original principal value of IBRD loans was US $9,442 million and of IDA credits at US $29,168. The data thus showing that Nigeria has received more credits than loans, a reflection of the country’s low-income status. It also shows that 75% of the total amount in the last 10 years compared to decades before then, showing the extreme weak economic conditions of the last decade. Project Title Commitment Amount in US $M Start Date Nigeria Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project 510 2020 Ogun State Economic Transformation Project 250 2020 Innovation Development and Effectiveness in the Acq. of Skills (IDEAS) 200 2020 Nigeria Improved Child Survival Program for Human Capital MPA 650 2020 Nigeria Digital Identification for Development Project 430 2020 Sustainable Procurement, Env. and Soc. Standards Enhancement (SPESSE) 800 2020 Additional Financing for MCRP 1760 2020 Power Sector Recovery Performance Based Operation 750 2020 Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment 500 2020 Nigeria COVID-19 Preparedness and Response Project 514.3 2020 Edo Basic Education Sector and Skills Transformation Operation 750 2020 Nigeria SFTAS Additional Financing for Covid-19 Response PforR 750 2020 Community Action (for) Resilience and Economic Stimulus Program 750 2020 Nigeria Distribution Sector Recovery Program 1200 2021 Nigeria Sustainable Urban + Rural Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene 700 2021 COVID-19 Preparedness and Response Project Additional Financing 400 2021 Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes (ACReSAL) 700 2021 National Social Safety Net Program-Scale Up 800 2021 Better Education Service Delivery for All Operation Add. financing 123.8 2021 Livestock Productivity and Resilience Support Project 500 2022 Modernizing Financial and Data Management Systems in Borno State 350 2022 Nigeria: State Action on Business Enabling Reforms (SABER) Program 750 2022 M&E Support for NFWP 234 2022 Umbrella Organization to Support Nigeria for Women Projects 390 2022 Nigeria – AF Power Sector Recovery Performance Based Operation 750 2023 Nigeria for Women Program Scale Up Project 500 2023 Additional Financing for Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Emp. 700 2023 Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up Project 750 2023 NG Accelerating Resource Mobilization Reforms PforR 750 2024 Reforms for Economic Stabilization to Enable Transformation (RESET) DPF 1500 2024