Uganda’s merchandise export earnings jumped by 72.1% year-on-year in January 2026, reaching $1.45 billion as the country capitalized on a historic gold boom and steady coffee demand.
According to the Ministry of Finance’s Performance of the Economy report for February 2026, the sharp increase from the $844.6 million recorded in January 2025 was primarily driven by a 182% surge in gold revenues. The performance flipped the nation’s trade balance from a deficit in December to a surplus of $147.26 million.
Gold remained the dominant driver, accounting for $913.95 million—roughly 63% of total monthly earnings. This growth was fueled by a significant rise in export volumes, which climbed to 6,254 kilograms, alongside a spike in global prices that surpassed $140,000 per kilogram. Analysts attribute the price rally to heightened geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, which have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets.
Coffee, the country’s traditional leading export, also posted gains, with earnings rising to $161 million from $156.5 million a year earlier. While global coffee prices saw a slight decline due to improved supply from Brazil, Uganda’s increased production volumes—totaling over 569,000 bags—more than offset the price dip.
The Middle East emerged as the top destination for Ugandan goods, claiming a 48.9% market share, with the United Arab Emirates alone receiving 99% of those shipments. Other significant markets included Asia (18.4%), the East African Community (17.9%), and the European Union (10.5%).
Beyond the primary commodities, the trade surplus was supported by increased earnings from industrial products, electricity, and oil re-exports, which doubled to $29.18 million. Despite the strong export performance, the report noted a 23.2% year-on-year rise in imports to $1.31 billion, driven by private sector demand for machinery and vehicles.
Economists cautioned that while the current surplus is a positive indicator of resilience, the heavy concentration of earnings in gold and coffee leaves the economy vulnerable to global price volatility.
