LAGOS,— Nigerian business leaders are entering the second quarter of the year with a notable sense of resilience, as the latest Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Business Expectations Survey reveals a surge in optimism despite the heavy burden of rising operational costs.
The survey, which polled 1,900 business enterprises nationwide, placed the Confidence Index (CI) at 39.4 points for February. More strikingly, firms expect this sentiment to leap to 54.3 points over the next six months, suggesting that many believe the worst of the recent macroeconomic adjustments is behind them.
The optimism is not uniform across the economy, with the industrial and extractive sectors showing the most confidence in the current reforms.
- Industrial Powerhouse: The industrial sector recorded the highest confidence at 43.2 points, outperforming Agriculture (38.5) and Services (37.8).
- Mining & Construction: At the sub-sector level, Mining and Quarrying led all categories with a confidence index of 52.4 points, followed closely by Construction at 43.6.
- Employment Outlook: In a boost for the labor market, the construction sub-sector also indicated the strongest intentions for new hiring in the coming month.
A significant driver of this optimism is the stabilization of the foreign exchange market. Respondents indicated a strong belief that the Naira will continue its steady appreciation. The exchange rate outlook index is projected to rise from its current 32.5 to 43.5 by August 2026.
Furthermore, following the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) recent decision to trim the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 26.5%, businesses are pricing in a potential easing of credit conditions. Analysts suggest that as inflation continues its 11-month downward trend—hitting 15.06% in February—the CBN may have more room to transition from aggressive tightening to a growth-supportive stance.
