South Africa’s headline consumer inflation quickened to 3.1% year-on-year in March, up from 3.0% in February, according to data released by Statistics South Africa on Wednesday.
The marginal uptick reflects a delicate balance between rising service costs and a cooling trend in food prices, keeping the annual rate near the bottom of the central bank’s target.
Education costs emerged as a primary catalyst for the acceleration. The statistics agency’s annual survey showed tuition fees rose 5.4% in 2026, outpacing the 4.5% increase recorded last year.
Private secondary schools saw the most significant price adjustments, with fees climbing 7.5%. High school boarding fees also surged, increasing by 9.1% compared to the previous year.
Housing and utilities contributed significantly to the headline figure. The category’s annual rate increased to 5.1% in March from 4.8% in February, driven largely by rising rental costs.
In contrast, food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed for the second consecutive month. The rate eased to 3.6% in March, providing some relief to households amid broader price pressures.
Transport costs remained in deflationary territory at -1.6%. However, this was a move toward zero from February’s -2.1%, signaling that the downward pressure from transport is beginning to fade.
Fuel prices, a major component of the transport basket, were down 4.5% year-on-year in March. This helped offset some of the gains seen in the services and education sectors.
Analysts note that the March figures do not yet account for the sharp fuel price hikes implemented in early April, which were triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
With April’s fuel surge expected to drive the index higher, the South African Reserve Bank is likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in its upcoming meetings.
The headline CPI index rose by 0.8% month-on-month in March. This monthly increase was primarily driven by the annual adjustments in education fees and rising miscellaneous goods and services.
