Nigeria’s Endless Refinery Repairs Continue After $5.3 Billion Spent in 27 Years
For nearly three decades, Nigeria’s state refineries have been less of an industrial asset and more of a financial sinkhole. Since 1999, successive administrations have poured over $5.3 billion into “Turnaround Maintenance” (TAM), yet the taps remain dry. The legacy of waste is staggering. Under the Obasanjo era, $800 million vanished with little impact. The Yar’Adua and Jonathan years saw another $1.6 billion committed, while the Buhari administration approved a massive $2.9 billion. Despite these injections, the Port Harcourt refinery—declared operational in late 2024—shuttered again within six months. This history of failure is currently under the microscope of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). The agency is probing an alleged $7.2 billion fraud linked to these failed rehabilitations. High-ranking former officials, including ex-Group CEO Mele Kyari, former Chief Financial Officer Umar Ajiya Isa, and past refinery MDs like Ahmed Adamu Dikko and Ibrahim Onoja, have faced questioning over the disbursement of funds that produced no fuel. Current NNPC GCEO, Bashir Bayo Ojulari, is now attempting to pivot away from this culture of contractor-led waste. On April 30th, The NNPC signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Chinese giants Sanjiang Chemical Company and Xinganchen Industrial Park to introduce a Technical Equity Partnership. Unlike the old “fix-and-fail” contracts, this model requires the Chinese partners to hold equity. Their profits are tied to actual production, not just showing up for repairs. By transferring operational risk to private hands, Ojulari hopes to transform the NNPC from a “refinery racket” into a commercial entity. For a nation that has spent 27 years importing its own prosperity at a high cost to the Naira, this shift is more than a policy change—it is a desperate attempt to plug a multi-billion dollar drainpipe that has bled the treasury for a long time. However, recent assessments of the MoU shows both Chinese companies lack the capacity to revive a refinery, as their past records shows they’ve never actually rehabilitated any crude oil refinery—such as the Warri, portharcourt refinery. The first partner in the MoU, Sanjiang Chemical Company limited, is a privately owned manufacturer in the chemical sector, with core expertise in downstream petrochemical derivatives rather than upstream crude oil refining. Conversely, Xingcheng industrial park and management co. Ltd, operates as a real estate and facility management firm; with no records in petroleum engineering or crude oil refining. Whether the flares at Port Harcourt and Warri will finally stay lit remains the ultimate test of this new strategy.
Airtel Africa Delays $10 Billion Mobile Money IPO Over Middle East Conflict
Airtel Africa has postponed the $1.5 billion to $2 billion anticipated public offering of its mobile money business to the second half of 2026. The company cited market volatility linked to the ongoing Middle East war. The London-listed telecom giant had originally planned to list the fintech unit by June 2026. However, rising energy costs and inflationary pressures from regional tensions have forced a strategic timeline shift. This delay comes despite record financial performance. Airtel Africa reported a 147% surge in annual profit to $813 million, driven by a mobile money user base that has grown to 54 million customers. However, Bloomberg cited last month that sources familiar with the matter stated that Airtel is targeting a fundraise of $1.5 billion to $2 billion, which would peg the unit’s total valuation at approximately $10 billion. Geopolitical risks in Iran and the broader Middle East have clouded investor sentiment for emerging market assets. Airtel’s management noted that waiting ensures a more stable environment to reflect the business’s true valuation. The company remains committed to the listing, likely in London or the UAE. In the interim, Airtel continues to scale its digital services, capitalizing on a 21% increase in mobile money engagement.
Investors Bet on Nigeria’s Long-Term Reforms as Central Bank T-Bill Demand Surges
LAGOS — Investors are ramping up bets on Nigeria’s long-term economic reforms, staking heavily on long-tenor debt instruments as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues its aggressive push to mop up excess liquidity. The CBN allotted ₦731.75 billion at its Treasury Bills Primary Market Auction on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The move followed a massive ₦2.41 trillion subscription, reflecting robust confidence in the nation’s fiscal trajectory. Investor demand remained overwhelmingly skewed toward the 364-day instrument. This preference highlights a strategic shift among institutional players to lock in double-digit yields amid expectations of a stable macroeconomic environment. Despite the heavy demand, stop rates across all maturities witnessed marginal declines. The apex bank capitalized on the high subscription levels to lower borrowing costs while effectively managing money supply. The 364-day bill saw its rate drop to 16.15 percent, down from 16.20 percent in the previous auction. The 182-day and 91-day papers also trended lower, signaling a gradual easing of interest rate pressure. Market analysts say the oversubscription, particularly in the one-year paper, underscores trust in Governor Olayemi Cardoso’s orthodox monetary policies. These measures aim to curb inflation and stabilize the naira through consistent market transparency. The successful auction also coincides with positive sentiment following the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. International observers have praised Nigeria’s commitment to painful but necessary structural reforms, further boosting the appeal of domestic debt. With total subscriptions exceeding the initial ₦700 billion offer by over 240 percent, the Nigerian capital market remains a primary destination for both local and foreign portfolio investors seeking high-yield opportunities.
Nigeria’s Cement Giant Rebrands to HBM After $1B Sale and CEO Terrorism Conviction
Africa Cement producer, Lafarge Africa PLC has officially rebranded as HBM Nigeria PLC following shareholder approval on Tuesday, marking the end of the iconic “Lafarge” name in the Nigerian market. The change to HBM Nigeria, short for Huaxin Building Materials, aligns the subsidiary with its new owner, China’s Huaxin Cement Co. Ltd, following its massive $1 billion takeover. The transition follows the 2025 exit of Swiss giant Holcim Group. The rebranding efforts come as the company seeks to distance itself from a global scandal involving former leadership. Last month, a French court sentenced former global CEO Bruno Lafont to six years in prison for financing terrorism. The court discovered €5.6 million were paid to armed groups (ISIS) between 2013 and 2014 to keep Lafarge Syrian plants running. The court also fined the firm $1.2 million. While the Nigerian subsidiary was not directly involved in the Syrian activities, the brand damage prompted a swift corporate identity shift. Despite the legal turmoil in Europe, the Nigerian operations remain highly profitable. The company reported a record-breaking revenue of N1.1 trillion for the 2025 financial year. Net profits surged by 173% to N273 billion, demonstrating that local demand for construction materials remains insulated from the parent company’s legal battles and executive sentencing. The new entity, HBM Nigeria, will continue trading on the Nigerian Exchange. Management stated the “clean slate” allows the company to focus on aggressive expansion across West Africa.
Ghana Rejects Multimillion-Dollar U.S Health Deal Over Data Privacy
The Ghanaian government has rejected a proposed $109 million bilateral health agreement with the United States, citing grave concerns over the mandatory sharing of sensitive national data. The decision, confirmed Tuesday by sources familiar with the negotiations, marks a significant defiance of the Trump administration’s “America First Global Health Strategy,” which seeks to overhaul international aid. President John Dramani Mahama’s administration reportedly balked at U.S. demands for access to citizens’ personal health records. Officials argued such terms compromised national data sovereignty and exposed private information. Negotiations for the five-year deal began last November but turned “hostile” as an April 24 deadline approached. Sources say U.S. negotiators applied intense pressure to secure the data-sharing provisions. The rejected funds were intended to combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. This follows the recent dismantling of USAID and a shift toward requiring recipient nations to self-finance their healthcare. Ghana is the latest African nation to resist these terms. Earlier this year, Zimbabwe rejected a similar $328 million deal, while a Kenyan court recently suspended a comparable agreement. Several other African countries including Nigeria have signed the five-years health deal. These agreements are a shift in U.S. foreign aid, towards a model of shared investment, national ownership, and increased self-reliance for partner countries under the “America First Global Health Strategy.” However, Ethicists warn these “data-for-aid” swaps could be exploitative. Critics argue that without guarantees, medical innovations derived from African data might not benefit the local populations providing the information. The U.S. State Department declined to discuss specific details but maintained its commitment to the partnership. Meanwhile, Ghanaian officials have remained silent following the collapse of the high-stakes talks.
Nigeria’s private sector sees 16-month growth streak as PMI hits 53.2
LAGOS – Nigeria’s economic recovery maintained its momentum in March 2026, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 53.2 points, according to the latest report from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). This marks the sixteenth consecutive month of broad-based expansion in the country’s private sector. The 53.2 reading, up from previous months, signifies a strengthening of business conditions across the federation. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates growth, while anything below signifies contraction. The sustained expansion since late 2024 suggests a stabilizing macroeconomic environment despite lingering global pressures. Broad-Based Growth Across Subsectors The growth was notably widespread, with 31 out of the 36 surveyed subsectors reporting expansion. The industrial sector led the charge, posting a sector-specific PMI of 54.0. Within that category, 14 out of 17 subsectors—ranging from cement to food processing—recorded significant gains in production volumes and new orders. The services and agricultural sectors also remained firmly in expansionary territory. Business owners cited improved access to foreign exchange and a gradual moderation in input cost inflation as primary drivers for the increased activity. Employment and Inventory Gains Beyond output, the CBN report highlighted a “healthy” trend in the labor market. Employment levels across the surveyed firms rose for the fifth straight month, as companies scaled up operations to meet rising consumer demand. Inventory levels also climbed, suggesting that businesses are becoming more confident in future sales and are stockpiling raw materials to avoid supply chain disruptions. Outlook for 2026 Analysts suggest that the consistent PMI data aligns with the federal government’s 4.1% GDP growth projection for 2026. While the Stanbic IBTC PMI showed a slight dip earlier in the year due to cash flow constraints, the CBN’s broader survey suggests that the mid-tier and large-scale industrial sectors are now operating at their highest capacity in nearly two years. As the second quarter begins, the focus remains on whether the CBN can maintain current interest rate levels without dampening this hard-won industrial momentum.
Intra-Africa Air travel to lead global growth through 2050 — IATA
Intra-Africa air travel is projected to become the world’s fastest-growing aviation market over the next 25 years, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% through 2050. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released these figures Tuesday in its latest Long-Term Demand Outlook (LTDO), signaling a massive shift in global passenger traffic toward emerging markets. According to the report, the continent’s internal connectivity will outpace all other major regional market pairs. While total global passenger demand is expected to more than double by 2050—reaching 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs)—Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are positioned as the primary engines of this expansion. “The structural scars of the pandemic are fading, replaced by a surge in demand from developing economies,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. He noted that while North America and Europe will see steady growth, the “center of gravity” for aviation is shifting south and east. Beyond internal routes, Africa-Asia and Africa-North America corridors are also forecast for robust growth at 4.5% and 3.8% respectively. However, IATA cautioned that realizing this potential depends on aggressive infrastructure investment and the implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM). Currently, African carriers face thin margins, with an estimated profit of just $1.30 per passenger in 2026, significantly below the global average of $7.90. The report also emphasized that the industry’s “Net Zero 2050” goal remains a critical constraint. Future growth is tied to the rapid scaling of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and regional regulatory alignment to lower operational costs across the continent. By 2050, the global aviation industry is expected to support nearly 10 billion annual passenger journeys, with Africa playing a disproportionately larger role in that volume than it does today.
