Nigeria’s Private Sector Expansion Anchors CBN Policy Pivot to Growth

Nigeria’s private sector sustained its growth momentum in October 2026 as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged up to 53.2 points from 53.0 points in September.

Data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) confirmed that business activities expanded for a fifth consecutive month, remaining comfortably above the 50-point benchmark separating expansion from contraction.

The sustained business expansion provides direct tactical validation for monetary authorities following the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to reset the baseline Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 23%.

Agricultural output anchored the index trajectory, with general farming activity surging to 56.8 points from 54.6 points, led by strong livestock demand at 56.4 points.

Industrial output accelerated to 53.5 points from 53.2 points, as manufacturers expanded capacity utilization in response to easing borrowing constraints and improved foreign exchange liquidity.

Commercial banks deepened private credit transmission following the operational adjustment of the standing deposit facility corridor, directly fueling corporate hiring as employment metrics reached 52.7 points.

Services activity moderated to 54.2 points from previous levels, reflecting a defensive corporate pivot toward high-yielding primary production amidst elevated input costs and persistent transportation bottlenecks.

Trade performance signaled firming underlying fundamentals, with export orders advancing to 48.8 points and import orders reaching 49.0 points, pointing toward gradual trade balance stabilization.

Operational efficiency improved as supplier delivery times reached 52.6 points, backed by external sector reserves expanding to $55.25 billion to clear trade backlogs.

Overall, the index trajectory confirms that CBN monetary easing and reserve build-up are stabilizing commercial cash flows and insulating domestic production against structural inflation pressures.

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