OPEC+ freezes production hikes through March 2026 amid global surplus and geopolitical Tensions

By: Chidozie Nwali

In a move to shore up a fragile energy market, eight key members of the OPEC+ alliance officially reconfirmed on Sunday, that they will pause all planned production increases through the first quarter of the year.

The decision comes as the global oil market faces a significant supply glut and follows a year in which crude prices plummeted by more than 18%, their steepest annual decline since the 2020 pandemic.

According to Bloomberg, the virtual meeting, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, resulted in a swift agreement to maintain current output levels for January, February, and March.

The group—which also includes Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—cited “seasonality” as the primary driver, referring to the historically lower demand for crude during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter months.

By freezing the “unwinding” of voluntary cuts, the alliance is effectively keeping roughly 1.24 million barrels per day (bpd) off the market that would have otherwise been added by March.

The meeting was held against a backdrop of intense geopolitical drama. Just 24 hours prior, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a large-scale military operation.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and U.S. President Donald Trump has already signaled a desire to overhaul the nation’s oil sector.

However, OPEC+ delegates reportedly dismissed the idea of adjusting policy based on the raid, calling such a move “premature.” Venezuela’s current output remains crippled by years of mismanagement, producing only about 800,000 to 1.1 million bpd.

Despite the unified announcement, the meeting took place amid reported friction between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over regional policy and future production quotas.

American oil output remains at record highs, consistently filling the gaps left by OPEC+ cuts.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions continue to complicate Russia’s export logistics.

With some analysts predicting Brent crude could slide toward $55–$60 per barrel in early 2026, the pause is seen as an attempt to establish a psychological floor for traders.

The alliance has left the door open for further action, stating they retain “full flexibility” to extend the pause or even reverse previous hikes if the surplus worsens. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will continue to meet monthly to ensure compliance among members, with the next high-level review scheduled for February 1, 2026.