Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain relatively stable at 4.0% in 2025, before increasing to 4.3% in 2026. Nigeria’s growth specifically is anticipated to be 3.4% in both 2025 and 2026. The international Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest World economic outlook (WEO) update released on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s projection represents an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points for 2025 and 0.5 percentage points for 2026 compared to the April forecast.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s growth is projected at 1.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, with no change from the April forecast for either year.
The WEO is a survey of prospects and policies by the IMF staff, usually published twice a year, with Global Economic updates in between.
The U.S based organization highlights that global financial conditions have eased, and the US dollar has depreciated, which has provided “some monetary policy space for emerging market and developing economies”.
Global growth is projected at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. The forecast for 2025 is 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the reference forecast of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook and 0.1 percentage point higher for 2026.
However, the overall global economic outlook is still clouded by “tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty”. Risks are “tilted to the downside”, with potential rebounds in effective tariff rates and elevated uncertainty weighing on activity. IMF said.
Geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and push commodity prices up, which could impact African economies heavily reliant on commodity exports.
The report emphasizes that “policies need to bring confidence, predictability, and sustainability by calming tensions, preserving price and financial stability, restoring fiscal buffers, and implementing much-needed structural reforms”.
For Nigeria, South Africa, and other African nations, this means a continued focus on prudent macroeconomic management and reforms to build resilience against external shocks.
