Nigeria 4.2%, South Africa 1%: IMF Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa

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The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects Sub-Saharan Africa to grow 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027, above the global rate of 3.1%.

Meanwhile, from an African perspective, the numbers highlight familiar divergence: East African reformers and resource recoveries drive the regional average, while the continent’s two largest economies remain far apart and many oil importers face persistent price pressures.

Nigeria is forecast to expand 4.2% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and oil terms of trade.

South Africa is projected at just 1.0% and 1.3%. Inflation for the region is expected to ease to 8.6% in both years.

Nigeria’s inflation is seen at 15.6% then 14.7%; South Africa’s at 4.4% then 3.9%. Higher food and energy costs linked to Middle East disruptions continue to weigh on vulnerable households and oil-importing economies, even as some countries benefit from earlier reforms.

The table below lists IMF real GDP growth and consumer-price inflation projections (annual percent change) for Sub-Saharan African economies, sorted by 2026 growth.

Country2026 Growth2027 Growth2026 Inflation2027 Inflation
South Sudan10.53.927.628.3
Ethiopia9.27.811.712.3
Rwanda7.47.212.37.9
Guinea7.27.86.35.8
Benin7.06.80.82.0
Niger7.06.5-1.92.0
Côte d’Ivoire6.06.12.22.5
Tanzania6.05.94.04.2
Ghana5.75.24.87.8
Zambia5.64.98.07.5
Mali5.55.73.02.5
Liberia5.55.15.97.1
Democratic Republic of the Congo5.25.74.37.4
The Gambia5.15.17.05.7
Cabo Verde5.05.01.22.8
Togo5.05.31.12.3
Zimbabwe5.03.54.05.0
Guinea-Bissau4.74.92.52.1
Chad4.55.4-0.75.3
Kenya4.54.76.05.0
Angola4.43.310.610.2
Botswana4.42.27.27.4
Burkina Faso4.44.82.12.2
Nigeria4.24.315.614.7
Sierra Leone4.04.413.813.0
Madagascar3.84.58.48.0
Eswatini3.73.42.93.2
Burundi3.64.710.512.2
Republic of Congo3.53.64.03.4
Cameroon3.23.63.44.3
Gabon3.02.90.81.9
Comoros2.93.14.03.2
Mauritius2.73.24.75.5
Central African Republic2.73.33.53.0
Malawi2.62.321.925.0
Namibia2.02.74.14.2
Lesotho1.10.84.63.9
Mozambique1.02.05.66.8
Seychelles1.04.00.92.3
South Africa1.01.34.43.9
São Tomé and Príncipe0.41.911.09.6
Equatorial Guinea-1.7-1.03.32.9
Sub-Saharan Africa4.54.58.68.6

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026, Annex Table 1.1.5.

Senegal isn’t on the table due to uncertainty surrounding its debt situation and related IMF programme discussions. Eritrea is excluded due to data limitations.

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