By: ThinkBusiness Africa
Nigeria’s external sector is poised for a significant strengthening, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projecting a current account surplus of $18.81 billion by 2026. This surplus, representing approximately 11.16% of the nation’s GDP, marks a pivotal shift in Nigeria’s trade dynamics as it moves from a period of intense reform toward a more resilient, export-led trajectory.
The projection, contained in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook titled “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty,” suggests a steady improvement from the $16.94 billion surplus (10.94% of GDP) estimated for 2025.
The anticipated $18.81 billion surplus is driven by a “triple threat” of increased oil output, non-oil export growth, and massive import substitution.
Total export receipts are forecast to climb to $58.26 billion in 2026, up from $54.59 billion in 2025. This is anchored by a projected rise in crude oil production to 1.71 million barrels per day (mbpd).
The “hidden engine” of the surplus remains diaspora remittances. The secondary income account is expected to yield a $26.13 billion surplus, highlighting the continued importance of Nigerians abroad in supporting domestic dollar liquidity.
“supported by strong exports, steady remittances inflow, increased oil & gas output, improved domestic refining capacity and rising global demand from key trading partners. The current account surplus is expected to rise to US$18.81 billion, while increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are projected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of US$10.15 billion.” CBN noted.
A major structural change is the reduction in foreign exchange demand for refined petroleum. With the Dangote Refinery expanding its capacity toward 700,000 bpd and eventually 1.4 million bpd, Nigeria is expected to slash its fuel import bill, which was historically the largest drain on its current account.
For the average Nigerian and business owner, the most critical takeaway from the data is the projected impact on the exchange rate. The CBN expects the Naira to trade around N1,400/$1 in 2026, supported by the accretion of external reserves to $51.04 billion.
This reserve level—the highest in years—is expected to provide the “ammunition” needed to narrow the premium between the official market (NFEM) and the parallel market, providing much-needed price discovery for importers.
In comparison to its regional peers, Nigeria’s projected 4.49% growth and massive current account surplus position it as a frontrunner among sub-Saharan Africa’s “anchor economies.”
While Nigeria’s surplus is expected to hit 11.16% of GDP, South Africa continues to grapple with structural energy constraints and logistical bottlenecks, with the IMF projecting a more modest GDP growth of approximately 1.5% to 1.8% for 2026 and a persistent current account deficit.
Similarly, in East Africa, Kenya, while maintaining a robust growth trajectory of around 5.2%, remains a net importer with a projected current account deficit of roughly 4.1% of GDP due to heavy infrastructure spending and debt servicing obligations.
Nigeria’s shift toward a double-digit surplus suggests a level of external shock absorption that currently outpaces both the Southern and East African powerhouses, provided its oil production and refinery targets are met.
