The World Bank raised Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3% on Tuesday, up from 4.1% in 2025, and said governments should use artificial intelligence to raise productivity and create jobs.
The projection is in the October Africa Economic Update, “Building AI Readiness,” and is 0.3 percentage point above the Bank’s April forecast. Andrew Dabalen, the Bank’s chief economist for Africa, said activity has shown “remarkable resilience.”
Forecasts were upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries, including Nigeria, Ethiopia, Angola and Zambia. The Bank linked the gains to reforms, tighter economic management, commodity-supported recoveries and firmer domestic demand.
“Growth is projected to increase from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, supported by robust global trade and sustained external demand.” World Bank said in its report.
The upgrade comes despite the Iran war. Higher fuel, fertilizer and food costs, not a collapse in external demand, have been the main channel from the Middle East conflict into African economies.
Median inflation is now projected to rise from 3.7% in 2025 to 5.5% in 2026. The Bank expects it to ease toward about 4% by 2028 if commodity prices stabilize and policy stays tight.
Per capita income growth is forecast at only 1.8% this year, from 1.6% in 2025, then about 2% a year in 2027–28. That pace is too slow to cut poverty sharply or absorb a fast-growing labor force.
The poverty rate, measured at $3 a day in 2021 purchasing-power terms, is projected to fall only from 47.8% in 2026 to 47.1% in 2027. The absolute number of poor people is still expected to rise.
Public debt has stabilized at a median of about 57% of GDP. About half of countries are in default or struggling to service debts , and external public debt service has held near 1.6% to 1.7% of GDP since 2021.
Headline fiscal deficits are expected to narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027–28. Primary balances are nearing equilibrium, but interest costs of roughly 3% of GDP continue to crowd out investment.
In Nigeria the Bank now sees growth rising from 4.0% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027–28, even as public debt reached 166.79 trillion naira by June and external debt climbed to about $54.5 billion.
Downside risks dominate. A longer Middle East conflict, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, high advanced-economy rates, aid cuts and a strong El Niño could hit food output, especially in Southern Africa and the Sahel.
An Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, reported in May as the third-largest on record, remains a localized drag, alongside security shocks and climate extremes.
Global spending on AI and digital infrastructure is already supporting African exporters of copper, cobalt, nickel, manganese, platinum-group metals and rare earths. Those earnings have cushioned higher energy prices and tighter financing.
Dabalen said Africa cannot match US-scale AI capital spending. He pointed instead to low-cost tools for student learning, livestock-disease detection and small-business accounting, plus shared data centers and stronger data-protection laws.
“Mounting debt service burdens, limited fiscal space, higher energy and transport costs, and heightened uncertainty continue to weigh on the outlook.
“At the same time, artificial intelligence offers opportunities for productivity and job creation, but adoption remains uneven. Limited connectivity constrains workers’ ability to benefit from AI augmentation, while public sector adoption remains basic in many countries.” World Bank noted.
Electricity, connectivity, skills and computing capacity remain the binding constraints. Without them, the Bank warned, faster headline growth will not become broad job creation.
