The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects Sub-Saharan Africa to grow 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027, above the global rate of 3.1%.
Meanwhile, from an African perspective, the numbers highlight familiar divergence: East African reformers and resource recoveries drive the regional average, while the continent’s two largest economies remain far apart and many oil importers face persistent price pressures.
Nigeria is forecast to expand 4.2% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and oil terms of trade.
South Africa is projected at just 1.0% and 1.3%. Inflation for the region is expected to ease to 8.6% in both years.
Nigeria’s inflation is seen at 15.6% then 14.7%; South Africa’s at 4.4% then 3.9%. Higher food and energy costs linked to Middle East disruptions continue to weigh on vulnerable households and oil-importing economies, even as some countries benefit from earlier reforms.
The table below lists IMF real GDP growth and consumer-price inflation projections (annual percent change) for Sub-Saharan African economies, sorted by 2026 growth.
| Country | 2026 Growth | 2027 Growth | 2026 Inflation | 2027 Inflation |
| South Sudan | 10.5 | 3.9 | 27.6 | 28.3 |
| Ethiopia | 9.2 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 12.3 |
| Rwanda | 7.4 | 7.2 | 12.3 | 7.9 |
| Guinea | 7.2 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Benin | 7.0 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Niger | 7.0 | 6.5 | -1.9 | 2.0 |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 6.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Tanzania | 6.0 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Ghana | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 7.8 |
| Zambia | 5.6 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| Mali | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Liberia | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 7.1 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 5.2 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 7.4 |
| The Gambia | 5.1 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 5.7 |
| Cabo Verde | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| Togo | 5.0 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Zimbabwe | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Chad | 4.5 | 5.4 | -0.7 | 5.3 |
| Kenya | 4.5 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Angola | 4.4 | 3.3 | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| Botswana | 4.4 | 2.2 | 7.2 | 7.4 |
| Burkina Faso | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Nigeria | 4.2 | 4.3 | 15.6 | 14.7 |
| Sierra Leone | 4.0 | 4.4 | 13.8 | 13.0 |
| Madagascar | 3.8 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 8.0 |
| Eswatini | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Burundi | 3.6 | 4.7 | 10.5 | 12.2 |
| Republic of Congo | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Cameroon | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Gabon | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Comoros | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.2 |
| Mauritius | 2.7 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Central African Republic | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Malawi | 2.6 | 2.3 | 21.9 | 25.0 |
| Namibia | 2.0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Lesotho | 1.1 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Mozambique | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 6.8 |
| Seychelles | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| South Africa | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 0.4 | 1.9 | 11.0 | 9.6 |
| Equatorial Guinea | -1.7 | -1.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.5 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026, Annex Table 1.1.5.
Senegal isn’t on the table due to uncertainty surrounding its debt situation and related IMF programme discussions. Eritrea is excluded due to data limitations.
