CAPPA’s SSB Report – A Technically Weak Foundation for Sweeping Policy Change 

Chidozie Nwali 

While public health concerns surrounding sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are legitimate, the latest report by the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) falls significantly short in its technical and analytical rigor. The recommendations—most notably a call for a ₦130/litre SSB tax—are based on flawed assumptions, selective data use, and simulations that crumble under scrutiny. 

The report’s primary justification for the tax increase hinges on outdated and inconsistent data. It cites a study linking obesity to processed food and sedentary lifestyles, yet its own findings focus on young males with high SSB consumption—creating a disconnect between evidence and conclusion. Moreover, CAPPA attributes Nigeria’s rising non-communicable disease burden largely to SSBs, while ignoring a multitude of contributing factors including urbanization, income levels, and broader dietary shifts. 

Technically, CAPPA fails to assess the effectiveness of the current ₦10/litre tax. No evidence is presented to show a reduction in SSB consumption, nor is there data linking the tax to improved health outcomes. This absence of baseline evaluation makes their call for a drastic increase unscientific. Their simulation—a predicted 29% drop in consumption from a 39% price increase—offers no clarity on assumptions, elasticity metrics, or behavioural modelling. It reads more like advocacy than analysis. 

The least expected by the Nigerian public is some level of transparency that involves a disclosure of how much revenue has been generated or how these funds have been used to improve public health. In the absence of this data, any suggestion of raising the tax twelvefold is fiscally irresponsible. It would be akin to raising toll rates without knowing if the roads were even maintained with previous funds. 

The policy also has serious implications for low-income consumers, who will feel the brunt of rising beverage prices amid a deepening cost-of-living crisis. Without a clear and transparent plan to earmark and utilize SSB tax revenue for public health programs, this policy risks being seen as nothing more than a regressive revenue tool—one that punishes consumers while doing little to improve national well-being. 

Additionally, the report cherry-picks global evidence. It fails to mention that the World Health Organization has twice declined to label SSB taxes as “Best Buys” in public health policy, due to insufficient evidence on cost-effectiveness. It also overlooks critical economic variables, such as the fragmented structure of Nigeria’s beverage market and the impact on small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are already grappling with high taxation and inflation. 

Policy must be grounded in comprehensive, transparent, and peer-reviewed evidence. CAPPA’s report, unfortunately, is not. It elevates rhetoric over rigour and ideology over insight. Nigeria deserves better than a health policy driven by technical shortcuts. We need rigorous dietary studies, economic modelling, and measured fiscal approaches—not reactionary interventions based on flawed analysis.