LAGOS – Surging refinery production and a wave of fresh international exports have successfully averted a projected global jet fuel shortfall ahead of the peak summer travel season, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported Wednesday.
The supply expansion comes as a relief to airlines following extreme energy market disruptions sparked by the recent U.S.–Iran conflict, which had previously forced jet fuel prices above $210 per barrel.
According to the IEA’s June report, U.S. refineries surpassed two million barrels per day (bpd) in March, while European output hit 1.3 million bpd. Production gains sustained momentum through April and May.
The boost in American refining enabled record-breaking exports to Europe. Simultaneously, domestic stockpiles in the United States have remained above historical averages, ensuring a reliable supply pipeline for foreign buyers.
West Africa has also emerged as a critical supplier for Europe. Data from market tracker Kpler reveals that June jet fuel shipments from Nigeria reached 127,000 bpd, rivaling U.S. inflows of 136,000 bpd.
Within Europe, elevated refining margins for middle distillates incentivized robust production runs across Italy, Norway, and Denmark. Output further improved as major refineries in Poland, Belgium, and Germany completed scheduled maintenance cycles.
Significantly, the IEA noted that maximizing jet fuel output did not compromise diesel production. Refiners successfully utilized hydrocracking capacities and additional low-sulfur feedstocks to maintain strong volumes for both critical transport fuels.
Market pressures have additionally been tempered by a broader contraction in global consumption. High fuel prices and macroeconomic friction led the IEA to downgrade its 2026 oil demand forecast by 1.1 million bpd.
Though global oil markets remain tight due to the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the localized aviation fuel crunch has largely normalized, with product pricing spreads narrowing toward pre-conflict levels.
