NNPC Clarifies Crude Supply Agreement with Dangote Refinery, Highlights Commitment to Domestic Refining
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.), Nigeria’s government owned oil corporation, has addressed recent media reports alleging the unilateral termination of its crude oil supply contract with the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest single train refinery. In a press release issued on March 10, 2025, NNPC Ltd. confirmed that the six-month Naira-denominated sales agreement, initiated in October 2024, remains active until the end of March 2025, with negotiations underway for a renewal. In the agreement, NNPC is committed to supplying up to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the Dangote Refinery, subject to availability, while the transactions are conducted in Naira, aligning with a 2023 federal directive mandating domestic crude sales in local currency to stabilize foreign exchange reserves. NNPC said in its report that it has delivered 48 million barrels of crude oil to the Dangote Refinery, bringing total supplies since the refinery’s operational launch in mid-2023 to 84 million barrels, supplying the previous 38 million barrels of crude in US $, the globally acclaimed currency for crude oil transactions. The NNPC-Dangote agreement is a cornerstone of Nigeria’s strategy to end costly fuel imports and retain value within its economy. Prior to 2023, Nigeria—Africa’s top oil producer—imported over 90% of its refined petroleum due to underperforming state-run refineries. The 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery, alongside newer modular plants like Waltersmith’s 5,000 bpd facility, aims to reverse this trend. Latest figures suggests that Nigeria still imports a significant portion of petroleum needs. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 prioritized domestic crude supply obligations, requiring producers to allocate portions of output to local refineries. In late 2023, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) mandated that all domestic sales be settled in Naira, easing dollar demands amid a currency crisis. NNPC’s partnership with Dangote dates to 2021, when both parties signed an initial 20-year crude supply agreement ahead of the refinery’s commissioning. However, delays in construction and operational start-ups necessitated shorter-term contracts. In 2023, NNPC Ltd. secured a 15% equity stake in the Dangote Refinery for $2.76 billion, cementing its role as a strategic partner, which has now been cancelled. In 2024, a six-month Naira-denominated contract replaced prior dollar-based deals, reflecting Nigeria’s foreign exchange conservation efforts. Other refineries, such as BUA Group’s 200,000 bpd facility (under construction), have similar agreements with NNPC Ltd., though Dangote remains the largest beneficiary. While the partnership has been largely collaborative, challenges persist. Nigeria’s crude output remains below its 1.78 million bpd OPEC quota, struggling at approximately 1.3 million bpd due to theft and underinvestment. Critics argue that Naira payments expose refiners to exchange rate volatility. However, NNPC insists this stabilizes the local economy. Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery’s full operational capacity has been delayed to late 2025, pending pipeline infrastructure completion. Dangote Industries’ Group Executive, Devakumar Edwin, confirmed in February 2025 that the refinery now meets 50% of Nigeria’s diesel and aviation fuel demand, with gasoline production expected by Q3 2025. With the March 2025 contract expiry approaching, NNPC and Dangote are negotiating terms for a multi-year agreement. Key considerations will include volume guarantees, aligning supply commitments with Nigeria’s production recovery efforts, pricing mechanisms that account for global crude benchmarks like Brent, and infrastructure upgrades, implementing improvements to streamline deliveries. The refinery’s success is pivotal to Nigeria’s economy; the World Bank estimates that eliminating fuel imports could save the country $26 billion annually. NNPC Ltd. reaffirmed its commitment to “supporting local refining capacity through equitable crude supply agreements,” signalling continued collaboration with Dangote and other domestic refiners. Market observers anticipate the new contract terms to be finalized ahead of the March 2025 expiry date.
Transcorp’s Performance sets the tone for Corporate Earnings Report in 2025
Transnational Corporation Plc (Transcorp Group) has reported exceptional financial results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, demonstrating robust growth across all major financial metrics, and setting the tone for corporate earnings report this year. The conglomerate’s revenue surged by 107 percent, reaching ₦408 billion, up from ₦197 billion in the previous year. This significant increase is attributed to strategic investments and enhanced operational efficiencies across its diverse business sectors. Operating income experienced substantial growth, rising by 83 percent to ₦149 billion from ₦81.4 billion in 2023. However, operating expenses also saw a notable increase of 105 percent, amounting to ₦62.8 billion, primarily due to inflationary pressures and strategic investments aimed at expanding operational capacity. A significant factor contributing to this rise in expenses was the elevated cost of natural gas and fuel within Transcorp’s power generation operations. In the first half of 2024, the cost of natural gas and fuel escalated by 203 percent year-on-year, reaching ₦118.4 billion, up from ₦39 billion in the same period of 2023. This sharp rise was linked to increased power generation capacity, which, while boosting revenue, also led to higher operational costs. As a result, Transcorp Power’s operating margin declined by 700 basis points, dropping to 36 percent from 43 percent in the previous year. Additionally, the company’s overall operating expenses were impacted by inflationary trends affecting various cost components. In the first half of 2024, operating expenses increased by 50% to ₦21.2 billion, reflecting the broader inflationary environment and the rising costs of operations. Transcorp Energy Limited, a subsidiary of Transnational Corporation Plc (Transcorp), is actively pursuing renewable energy initiatives to diversify Nigeria’s energy mix. The company has expressed intentions to develop a utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant, signalling a strategic move into sustainable energy sources. In alignment with these ambitions, Transcorp Power Plc has partnered with Covenant University and ENGIE Group to explore solar energy solutions, underscoring its commitment to integrating renewable energy into its portfolio. Furthermore, Transcorp has demonstrated a commitment to enhancing Nigeria’s domestic energy value chain through its investments in OPL28 and its renewable energy drive via Transcorp Energy Limited. These initiatives reflect Transcorp’s dedication to expanding its renewable energy investments, particularly in solar power, to support Nigeria’s transition to a more sustainable energy future. A major highlight of Transcorp’s financial performance is the 45 percent reduction in net finance costs, which decreased to ₦12.4 billion. This improvement is largely due to the complete repayment of foreign currency loans, reflecting the company’s effective financial management strategies. The company’s total assets grew by 42 percent, reaching ₦751.6 billion, while shareholders’ funds increased by 45 percent to ₦271.7 billion, up from ₦187.3 billion in the previous year. This growth in shareholders’ equity is primarily driven by profit accretion to retained earnings, underscoring Transcorp’s commitment to enhancing shareholder value. Considering these impressive results, Transcorp has declared a full-year dividend of ₦10.1 billion, translating to ₦1.00 per share, reflecting the company’s dedication to rewarding its shareholders. Dr. Owen D. Omogiafo, President and Group CEO of Transcorp, emphasized that the company’s performance underscores its commitment to sustainable value creation and growth across Nigeria’s power, hospitality, and energy sectors. She noted that Transcorp aims to strengthen its position and explore new sectors that align with its mission of improving lives and transforming Africa. Transcorp’s power subsidiaries, Transcorp Power Plc and TransAfam Power Limited, currently provide about 20 percent of Nigeria’s installed power capacity, highlighting the company’s significant role in the nation’s energy sector. Additionally, Transcorp Hotels Plc, the hospitality arm of the conglomerate, reported a revenue of ₦70.13 billion for the 2024 financial year, marking a 69 percent increase from ₦41.57 billion in the previous year. This growth is attributed to improved occupancy rates and enhanced service offerings. These results further reinforce Transcorp’s strategic positioning and leadership in its core industries, signalling a strong outlook for continued growth and expansion. The company’s ability to navigate economic challenges while delivering exceptional financial performance underscores its resilience and commitment to its stakeholders. Furthermore, Transcorp Hilton Abuja has significantly bolstered the growth of Transcorp Hotels Plc hospitality segment. In the first half of 2024, the company’s occupancy rate rose to 81%, up from 77 percent in the same period in 2023. This increase contributed to a 61% revenue growth, reaching ₦29.7 billion. Additionally, Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) surged by 57 percent to ₦162,999, compared to ₦103,646 in the previous year. These metrics underscore the hotel’s enhanced performance and its pivotal role in the company’s overall success. Transcorp’s long-term vision centres on transforming Africa through strategic investments in key economic sectors. The company emphasizes Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria in its business dealings and investment decisions, aiming to build socially responsible and impactful businesses that serve diverse stakeholders. While Transcorp has established a strong presence in power, hospitality, and energy sectors, it has not publicly disclosed specific plans regarding expansion into new industries or regions. However, its commitment to improving lives and transforming Africa suggests a potential interest in sectors that align with these goals, possibly including technology, agriculture, or education, as well as exploring opportunities in other African countries to further its mission.
Will the re – introduction of ATM fees improve cash access at the tills?
Following the circular by the Central Bank of Nigeria that reintroduced fees to cash withdrawals at the ATMs, the Banks started implementation March 1st 2025. Under the new fee structure, customers will no longer receive three free interbank ATM withdrawals per month. Instead, withdrawals at on-site ATMs will attract a ₦100 fee per ₦20,000, while off-site ATMs may include an additional surcharge of up to ₦500 per transaction. The policy also standardizes POS cash withdrawal fees, bringing both services under the same pricing model. Under the new structure, withdrawals from a customer’s own bank’s ATMs (On-Us transactions) remain free of charge. However, using another bank’s ATM (Not-On-Us transactions) will incur a ₦100 fee per ₦20,000 withdrawal. For off-site ATMs—those located outside bank premises, such as in shopping malls or fuel stations—an additional surcharge of up to ₦500 may apply. This surcharge will be displayed on the ATM screen before the transaction is approved, allowing customers to make informed decisions. Banks must now clearly disclose all transaction fees, and customers can report overcharges to the CBN or their banks. Transfers and digital payments remain unaffected by the new policy, which solely applies to cash withdrawals The reason for the reintroduction of the charges is simple – bank customers rarely have access to cash at ATMs anymore. The point was forcefully made to the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria Yemi Cardoso during the annual bankers’ dinner late last year and the governor promised to do something about it. It was also clear that free ATM withdrawal was not sustainable. In the last five years, the growth in the deployment of ATM machines have stalled. In the same period, the number of POS merchants, originally designed for direct card purchase from merchants and a back stop to improving financial inclusion in the rural areas with very limited access to ATMs have risen. This change stems from the rising cost of maintaining ATMs and digital banking infrastructure. Previously, Nigerian bank customers could withdraw cash from interbank ATMs for free three times a month, after which a ₦35 fee applied per transaction. POS transactions, however, were largely unregulated, with agents setting their own fees—often charging ₦300 or more per ₦10,000 withdrawal. While ATMs provided a lower-cost alternative, their scarcity and frequent downtimes meant many Nigerians relied on POS agents, despite higher charges. Fig. 1. ATM versus POS withdrawal 2015 – 2025 Graph showing the trend of ATM vs. POS withdrawal usage from 2015 to 2025. ATM withdrawals have grown gradually, while POS transactions have surged, especially in the last few years. Two things aligned to spike the use of POS for cash in urban areas. As mentioned above and shown by the graph, Banks could not sustain the maintenance of the ATMs machines, especially as it was free to customers. The rising costs coincided with the rapid decline in Naira’s exchange rate against all international currencies. The costs of maintenance are largely in foreign currencies. Secondly, banks realised they could not only shirk their responsibility, but their staff also make quick money through POS merchants. The expectation is that the new measures will encourage banks to expand ATM deployment. However, as the graph below shows, following the growth in ATM deployment between 2010 and 2021, ATM deployment has stalled. The brief data below shows that Nigeria has one ATM to 10 ATMs 100,000 people. It was 16.5 to 100,000 in 2021 according to data from Trading Economics. In South Africa, it is 50 to 100000 between 2005 and 2022. According to Liberman Companies, the costs of an ATM ranges from US $2500 to US $8000 depending on the display type, cassette size, and security features. To raise the current level of ATM to pre pandemic levels will require investments of up to US $10 m to US $32 million [ N15 billion – N48 billion]. This analysis points to the conclusion that the price for cash withdrawals does not provide sufficient incentives for this renewed investment by banks. The difference between withdrawal from own’s bank (free) and withdrawing from another bank’s ATM (N100) is not sufficient to prevent a free loader mentality – where each bank expects the other to provide services to its customers because the N100 is largely insignificant. Fig. 2. The fall of ATM deployment in Nigeria from 2021. Graph shows ATM deployment data in Nigeria from 2010 to 2022. It reflects the steady growth of ATMs until 2021, followed by a decline in 2022. A corollary of this measure should be to minimise the use of cash in the first place. The use of POS for cash, rather than for merchandise is the problem. POS is meant for merchandise but has become the intermediary. Fig. 3. ATM and POS transactions in 2024. Pie chart showing the breakdown of cash access points in Nigeria for 2024. POS transactions dominate with 87.5% of the total, while ATM transactions account for only 12.5%. It is obvious that POS machines are not serving as complementary to ATMs as it was intended. They started to serve as competition. So, as competitors and or complementary, the system failed when it became clear that it became the only option (monopoly) in the access to cash game. There is nothing to now suggest that the fees attached to only non-own bank withdrawal is sufficient to change that. The debate over treating ATMs and POS terminals under the same fee structure is gaining traction. Even if there are improvements in the urban areas because that can easily be monitored, it is likely that POS agents will remain the primary cash withdrawal source due to the limited availability of ATMs in the rural areas. Nigeria’s cash availability structure has evolved significantly. In the early 2000s, transactions were largely confined to bank branches, with long queues and slow processing times. The introduction of ATMs improved access but remained limited due to poor infrastructure and a low number of machines per capita. The CBN attempted to ease these issues by
UBA building its human capital of the future through GMAP Initiative
Group Chairman, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Mr. Tony O. Elumelu; CEO, UBA Africa, Mrs Abiola Bawuah; and GMD/CEO, UBA Group, Mr. Oliver Alawuba, flanked by graduates of the Bank’s Graduate Management Accelerated Programme (GMAP) Class of 2025, at the graduation ceremony held for over one thousand trainees from across Africa in Lagos on Wednesday Yesterday, the United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc inducted over 1,100 young professional into its workforce through the Graduate Management Accelerated Programme (GMAP), demonstrating its commitment to shaping and competing in the future of Africa’s banking and finance sector. The graduation ceremony, held on Wednesday at the Landmark Event Centre in Lagos, celebrated the successful completion of months of intensive training for 1,138 participants from across the continent. The event was attended by UBA Group Chairman, Mr. Tony O. Elumelu, Group Managing Director/CEO, Mr. Oliver Alawuba, and CEO, UBA Africa, Mrs. Abiola Bawuah, who were joined by board members, faculty mentors, and families of the graduates. The ceremony recognized the exceptional efforts of the trainees, including prize winners who stood out during the programme. Now in its third year, GMAP has provided training, mentorship, and hands-on experience to more than 3,222 young professionals, preparing them for leadership roles in UBA and the broader financial industry. Speaking at the ceremony, Mr. Elumelu emphasized UBA’s dedication to youth empowerment, stating, “At UBA, we believe Africa’s transformation lies in the hands of young, dynamic, and ambitious professionals such as you. Through GMAP, we are shaping future leaders while addressing the continent’s unemployment challenges. Your success will be built on hard work, resilience, and a commitment to continuous learning.” The GMAP programme, is designed to equip young graduates with the skills and hands-on experience needed for leadership roles within UBA. Over an intensive six-month period, participants undergo classroom training, mentorship, rotational assignments, and real-world banking experience to prepare them for full-time roles within the bank. Group Chairman, United Bank for Africa(UBA), Mr. Tony O. Elumelu; Group Managing Director/CEO, UBA Group, Mr. Oliver Alawuba, flanked by graduates of the Bank’s Graduate Management Accelerated Programme(GMAP) Class of 2025, at the graduation ceremony held for over one thousand trainees from across Africa in Lagos on Wednesday. UBA’s GMD/CEO, Mr. Alawuba, commended the new graduates, describing the programme as a key pillar of the bank’s investment in human capital development. “This moment marks the beginning of a transformational journey that will shape your careers, your contributions to society, and Africa at large. The GMAP is a testament to our vision of empowering the brightest minds with the skills, knowledge, and mind-set required to navigate the ever-evolving financial landscape,” Alawuba stated. Like other banks, large professional firms such as KPMG, PwC, Deloitte, Andersen, and other large companies in Nigeria and Africa, UBA has had its own fair share of staff leaving for the USA, Canada, UK, and other similar countries in the las few years. Majority have left for further studies, jobs, and family relocation in response to changing migration landscapes. This has left banks such as UBA the need to rebuild, revamp, and strengthen their human capital. The GMAP is thus a great strategic response to what an industry insider shared with ThinkBusiness Africa recently that most of the middle managers in the banking industry have vanished in the last few years. During the graduation ceremony, the CEO of UBA also highlighted UBA’s commitment to gender inclusion, revealing that 58% of the graduating class (666 out of 1,138) were women—a testament to the bank’s dedication to fostering a diverse and equitable workplace. The GMAP initiative has already produced several success stories, with alumni advancing into key roles across UBA’s 20 African markets, as well as its offices in the UK, US, France, and UAE. Since its inception three years ago, GMAP has successfully graduated 3,222 trainees across 16 cohorts. Specifically, in the last two years, the programme has inducted over 2,000 young professionals, with 700 graduates in 2023 and an additional 398 graduates in 2024. Group Chairman, United Bank for Africa(UBA), Mr. Tony O. Elumelu; CEO, UBA Africa, Mrs Abiola Bawuah; and GMD/CEO, UBA Group, Mr. Oliver Alawuba, flanked by prize winners of the Bank’s Graduate Management Accelerated Programme(GMAP) Class of 2025, at the graduation ceremony held for over one thousand trainees from across Africa in Lagos on Wednesday As the latest batch of graduates embarks on their careers, UBA continues to reinforce its core values of Excellence, Enterprise, and Execution, preparing the next generation of African banking professionals for a dynamic future. The ceremony featured inspiring testimonies from GMAP alumni who have excelled within UBA. The bank, which operates in 20 African countries as well as the UK, US, France, and UAE, remains a leader in financial inclusion, serving over 45 million customers and employing 25,000 people worldwide. As the latest batch of GMAP graduates embarks on their careers, UBA continues to reinforce its core values of Excellence, Enterprise, and Execution, preparing the next generation of African banking professionals for a
Is Nigeria set for a stable monetary policy?
After the first monetary policy committee meeting of the year, which leaves the monetary policy rate unchanged at 27.5 percent, it appears Nigeria is set for a stable monetary policy this year. The decision to leave rates unchanged was the first time under the leadership of Yemi Cardoso. The governor had led a regime of consistently raising interest rates since February 2024, from 18.75 percent to reach 27.5 percent in November 2024. The committee also left the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 50 percent for commercial banks and 16 percent for Merchant Banks, liquidity ratio at 30 percent, and the asymmetric corridor and +500 and -100 basis points. Essentially, while the CBN has not responded to calls to lower interest rates, it has paused its recent raises to curtail inflation. Fig. 1 The Central Bank of Nigeria Monetary Policy Rates January 2014 to February 2025 The MPC decision came amidst recent announcement by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that it has rebased the Nigerian economy, updating the base year for both Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation to 2024, from the initial 2010. The recent rebasing is already one rebasing short of the requirement that economies should rebase every five years according to the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNStat). The decision to leave the rates unchanged also come after the Naira has remained largely stable for over six months now, from June 2024. Following the rebasing and the announcement that inflation in January 2025 was 24 percent, it means that the MPR is above the inflation rate for the first time since …… , allowing the realistic possibility that the MPC will reduce its MPR when it meets in April. The rebasing has also allowed the CBN to maintain its stance that it is committed to curtailing inflation through the limited monetary policy tools available to it. By also supporting the recent strengthening of the Naira against the USD and other internationally traded currencies, the CBN is coordinating its policy and actions towards reduction in the rate of inflation and interest rates. Fig. 2 Nigeria’s Inflation Rate However, the CBN recognises that the greatest constraint is the stability of the exchange rates. The reserves, though grown from US $33.5 billion in February 2024 to over US $40 billion at the end of 2024, has now declined to US $38.5 billion, which covers about a year level of current imports, higher than the three months “rule of thumb.” Over time, ThinkBusiness Africa analysis have argued that Nigeria reserves should be a target of US $100 billion, not because it is what covers three months of imports, but because it represents a significant level of reserves as “insurance” for macroeconomic stability. Fig. 3 Naira’s exchange rate with the US $ Unlike this time last year, there are developments that now supports the concrete possibility of a stable monetary policy outlook for the rest of the year. The most important is that virtually all petroleum motor spirit (PMS) is now produced in the country. Following the commencement of the production of petroleum products at the Dangote refinery, the use of an estimated 20 – 25 percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings on the importation of petroleum products has largely ceased. Indeed, OPEC in its February 2025 report said, “the Dangote Refinery reaching full production capacity should help stabilise the petroleum product supply and possibly lower petrol prices.” And just few days ago, Dangote refinery announced new lower prices for its petroleum products, as predicted by OPEC. Also, this time last year, Nigeria’s foreign reserves was at US $33.5 billion, compared to US $38.5 billion in February 2025, lower than a high of US $40 billion in December 2024. In addition, crude oil production was at about 1.3 million barrels per day but now it is now above the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota for the country. Fig.4. Crude Oil Production and Price 2010 – 2025. Though risks remain, especially the possibility of lower crude oil prices in response to increases in crude oil supply by the US, following the commitment of the new US President Donald Trump to increase production, the outlook for a stable monetary policy outlook is at its best since Yemi Cardoso became Governor of the Apex Bank in September 2023. Indeed, at the annual banker evening in Lagos late last year, the governor had argued that the effects of CBN policy measures in 2024 will become more evident by the first quarter of 2025. As he predicted, though relying on rebasing, inflation has started to decline. Furthermore, the CBN forecasts a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 4.17% for 2025, driven by ongoing reforms and an expected increase in oil production. Foreign exchange reserves are also projected to rise, bolstered by higher oil output, which is expected to reach 2.3 million barrels per day by mid-year. The CBN’s persistent monetary tightening reflects its dedication to curbing inflation and stabilizing the Nigerian economy. While the nation continues to face significant inflationary challenges, particularly in food and energy sectors, the central bank’s proactive measures aim to restore price stability and foster economic growth in the coming year.
The Tale of Two Cities: Lagos’ Tree Inequity Crisis
In Lagos, Nigeria’s bustling megacity, a stark divide exists between neighborhoods – not just in wealth,but in their access to nature’s most basic gift: trees. While the affluent districts of Ikoyi and Ikeja GRAenjoy generous canopies of trees and greenery, low-income areas like Oshodi, Ketu, and Surulere standin stark contrast, their streets largely bereft of natural shade and greenery. This environmental inequity takes on particular significance in a city of 15-21 million inhabitants – apopulation that exceeds that of countries like Sweden, Norway, and Denmark all put together. Lagos’rapid industrialization, marked by the recent addition of the world’s largest single-train refinery, theDangote Refinery in Lekki, processing 650,000 barrels of crude oil daily, only heightens the urgency ofaddressing this disparity. The city’s environmental challenges are numerous: millions of petrol or diesel generator-dependenthomes and businesses, extensive port operations, burgeoning real estate development decimatingurban forests, and over two million vehicles daily pumping carbon and other dangerous gases into theair. In this context, the uneven distribution of trees becomes more than an aesthetic concern – it’s nowa public health crisis. Research has consistently demonstrated that urban greenery reduces mental fatigue, aggression, andstress – factors linked to violent crime. In a city where crime rates spike in low-income neighborhoods,could strategic urban forestry offer an unexpected solution? The implications extend beyond crimeprevention: areas with minimal tree coverage face elevated urban heat island effects, compromised airquality, increased respiratory ailments, and limited access to recreational green spaces. Recent years have witnessed the devastating impact of floods in Lagos, with the 2022 deluge alonecausing billions of Naira in damages. These losses might have been significantly mitigated throughthoughtful urban planning and comprehensive greening initiatives. As climate change intensifiesglobally, Lagos must prioritize building resilience in vulnerable communities, with tree planting servingas a cornerstone strategy for flood control and erosion prevention. In fact, success in this project will require collaboration between state government, landlordassociations, and civil society organizations to create and implement effective incentives and policies. Ofcourse, the stakes are high: resolving Lagos’ tree inequity crisis could be key to addressing the city’spersistent socioeconomic, public health, and sustainability challenges. In the end, this is not merely about planting trees – it’s about growing a more equitable, resilient,healthy, and sustainable Lagos for all its residents. ByGeorge Oge AniegbunemWriting from the Yale School of the Environment, Connecticut, USA.
A 90-Day Halt Crippling Global Aid: A Funding Freeze or a Deeper Systemic Issue?
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day freeze on most U.S. foreign aid in January 2025, the reaction from aid organizations was swift and urgent. Reports detailed how clinics were shutting down, HIV treatment programs were being disrupted, and life-saving services were at risk in countries such as Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. The immediate fallout raises an important question: if the halt is temporary, why was there no buffer to sustain these critical programs for even a few weeks? The situation exposes potential vulnerabilities in the global aid system—ones that go beyond the politics of U.S. foreign policy. U.S. foreign aid, including programs like the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), operates on scheduled disbursements. Funds are not sent out in lump sums but are distributed periodically, often monthly or quarterly. This rolling budget model means that any disruption in the pipeline can have immediate consequences, especially for organizations that rely on U.S. aid as their primary funding source. Additionally, U.S. government aid often requires compliance with bureaucratic processes that can delay fund access. Even when budgets are approved, it can take weeks or months for organizations to receive the funds, order supplies, and implement programs. While the sudden shortfall is alarming, it raises deeper concerns about financial planning and dependency on U.S. aid. Consider these possibilities: 1. Over-Reliance on One Source: Many of the affected organizations receive the bulk of their funding from the U.S. government, making them vulnerable to policy shifts. While private donors and other international agencies contribute, their support may not be sufficient to sustain large-scale operations when U.S. aid is frozen. 2. Lack of Financial Reserves: Ideally, aid programs should have contingency funds to cover short-term disruptions. The fact that services are collapsing within days suggests that many organizations may not have adequate reserves or alternative funding mechanisms. 3. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Even if funds were available, bureaucratic and logistical hurdles in procurement and distribution could mean that stockpiles of medicine, food, and essential supplies were already running low before the funding freeze. 4. Strategic Messaging: There is also the possibility that organizations are emphasizing the immediate impact to pressure lawmakers into reversing the funding halt. While the crisis is real, the severity of the messaging could be a way to accelerate policy responses. The current crisis highlights a recurring problem: many international aid programs function on short-term funding cycles without long-term sustainability plans. The dependency on a single major donor—particularly one as politically unpredictable as the United States—creates instability. The U.S. has a long history of leveraging aid as a political tool, and Trump’s latest move is a reminder that foreign assistance can be revoked at any time. This raises critical questions: • Should recipient countries and aid organizations work toward more diversified funding sources? • Are there better ways to structure international aid to prevent sudden collapses? • Should there be international mandates requiring organizations to maintain reserves for emergency situations? What Happens Next? While the funding halt is set to last 90 days, the damage may extend beyond that period. Interruptions in HIV treatment, for example, could lead to an increase in drug resistance and higher transmission rates. Clinics that shut down due to lack of funds may struggle to reopen. The long-term lesson from this crisis is clear: financial sustainability in global aid needs to be prioritized. A single executive order should not be able to dismantle life-saving programs overnight. Whether this leads to reforms in aid management remains to be seen. For now, the world watches as humanitarian organizations scramble to fill the gaps—and as millions of lives hang in the balance.
Investments in Ai to rise 60% over the next three years – BCG Report
Micah Essien According to a recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), investments in generative artificial intelligence (AI) are projected to increase by 60 percent over the next three years. The study, titled “BCG AI– From Potential to Profit: Closing the AI Impact Gap,” highlights that in 2025, AI will remain a primary focus for global business leaders, with one-third of companies planning to allocate over US $25 million to AI initiatives. BCG’s AI Radar global survey, now in its second year, gathered insights from 1,803 C-level executives across 19 markets and 12 industries, including nations such as South Africa, Nigeria, and Morocco. The findings revealed that 56% of companies are channelling their AI investments into smaller-scale, productivity-oriented projects. While leaders are setting clear objectives and monitoring both top and bottom-line impacts, 60 percent of surveyed companies have not established or tracked financial key performance indicators (KPIs) related to AI value creation. In Africat, 35 percent of companies surveyed lack defined financial KPIs for AI value creation. Additionally, 62 percent face challenges in effective AI organizational change management, and 68 percent report difficulties in hiring and upskilling AI talent. BCG’s CEO, Christoph Schweizer, noted, “CEOs are prioritizing AI to drive productivity. While 75% of executives rank AI as a top-three strategic priority, only a quarter report meaningful value from their initiatives. The gap lies in execution—leaders focus on targeted AI initiatives, scale them rapidly, and invest in upskilling their workforce while tracking measurable operational and financial returns.” The report also indicates a growing interest in autonomous AI agents—systems capable of achieving goals with minimal human intervention. Globally, 67 percent of executives are exploring the role of these agents in AI transformation, with 65 percent of African companies considering them integral to their AI strategies. Additionally, 66 percent of African executives are optimistic about the synergy between AI and human talent, foreseeing complementary roles. Only 6 percent anticipate job losses due to AI; instead, 68 percent expect to maintain workforce size by enhancing productivity and upskilling employees, while 19 percent foresee AI taking the lead with human oversight. Despite the positive outlook, significant concerns arise. The report identifies data privacy and security as the top issues, and this was cited by 66 percent of executives, followed by lack of control over AI decisions (48 percent) as well as regulatory challenges (44 percent). In Africa, 64 percent of executives emphasize data privacy risks, and 46 percent highlight regulatory hurdles as barriers to AI adoption. Additionally, 83 percent of African companies acknowledge the need for improved AI security measures, and 60 percent consider regulations as a factor influencing their AI adoption pace—this is the highest rate globally. The environmental impact of AI is another pressing issue. Globally, 73 percent of companies fail to prioritize energy-efficient AI solutions in vendor selection. This figure is mirrored in Africa, standing at 73 percent, slightly better than South America (86 percent) and North America (83 percent). Addressing this gap will be crucial as AI adoption accelerates across sectors.
Bank of Industry: A focal point of Nigeria’s new industrial push
Through a combination of policy initiatives and the preparedness of the Bank of Industry (BOI) under Dr. Olasupo Olusi, the country’s largest and oldest development institution is now seen as the home for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s renewed push for Nigeria’s industrialisation. The Bank’s role and relevance has increased tremendously in the last year and has just secured a nearly 2 billion Euros syndicated loan to prepare for the future. Its recent success in raising €2 billion – the largest fundraising effort in its history – was both a culmination of disciplined six months work and the preparation to accommodate more developmental responsibilities in the Nigerian economy. That has become increasingly the only hope for small and medium sized companies in the face of high and rising banks interest rates of over 30 percent. BOI has this become the backbone in Nigeria’s industrialization agenda, provide both large-scale and long term funding to priority sectors like agro-processing, technology, manufacturing, and renewable energy – all industries vital for economic diversification. Improved Financial Performance While BOI have always had superior financial performance, the Bank’s capacity has grown dramatically in the last 12 months. For instance, BOI’s €2 billion (N3.4 trillion) raise from global institutions gave it a substantial capacity to boost financing for Nigeria’s businesses, raising the Bank’s total assets from N3.91 trillion in December 2023 to N6.38 trillion by end of September 2024, giving Nigerian businesses access to affordable (9-14 percent), long-term capital and job creation facilitation. The Bank was able to grow remarkably showing and attesting to a remarkable increase in its financial performance. Attracting Funding from Foreign Institutional Investors The BOI’s ability to attract significant foreign funding is a testament to its credibility and growing global reputation. The €2 billion loan raised in 2024 involved contributions from prominent institutions like the European Investment Bank (EIB) and other international development finance organizations. The Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) acted as the global coordinator, lead co-arranger, and guarantor, supported by banks like Standard Chartered, Afreximbank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, and others. This syndication marked a significant milestone, becoming the largest in BOI’s history and Africa’s development finance landscape. Proceeds are for corporate purposes, trade financing, and industrialization projects in Nigeria, reflecting investor confidence in BOI under Dr. Olasupo Olusi’s leadership. The success of this syndication underscores market confidence in BOI’s history in delivering funding access in high impact areas of the economy in low costs to industries. Proceeds will be used for trade financing and supporting industrial and trade-related projects in Nigeria, directly impacting critical sectors like manufacturing, infrastructure, and exports. Effectively, BOI is now the bridge between global investors interested in Nigeria’s industrial development and companies. Under the leadership of Dr. Olasupo Olusi, BoI has consistently demonstrated financial prudence and the ability to continuously attract significant foreign funding. AFC’s A3 investment-grade rating from Moody’s further enhanced the bank’s credibility during the syndication process. Foreign investors are drawn to BOI not only for its financial performance but also for its adherence to global best practices in governance and transparency. The bank’s emphasis on sustainable development, particularly through green financing, aligns with international goals, such as the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This alignment enhances its attractiveness to foreign partners, who view the BOI as a reliable vehicle for impactful investments in Nigeria. What This Means for Nigeria’s Industrialization The €2 billion raised by the BOI has profound implications for Nigeria’s industrialization efforts. It guarantees access to affordable, long-term financing for entrepreneurs, industrialists, and SMEs – addressing one of the most significant barriers to industrial growth in the country. For example, agro-processing businesses can now acquire modern machinery, manufacturers can expand production lines, and tech entrepreneurs can develop innovative solutions with the assurance of funding. The BOI’s financial strength also positions it to support large-scale projects that can transform Nigeria’s economy. Industrial parks, renewable energy plants, and export-oriented manufacturing initiatives are just a few areas that stand to benefit. The funding ensures that Nigeria remains competitive on the global stage while addressing local challenges like unemployment and import dependency. A New Strategic Focus Under the leadership of Dr. Olasupo Olusi, the BOI has refined its focus to address emerging challenges and opportunities. Dr. Olusi, a seasoned expert in development finance, formerly at the World Bank, has emphasized three core priorities for the bank: innovation, sustainability, and economic resilience. The Bank of Industry (BOI) has set an ambitious target for the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. It is going to ensure that its services get to Nigeria’s 36 states. BOI’s assurance to reach 36 States by Q1 of 2025 comes as Nigeria grapples with economic challenges, making institutions like Bank of Industry to play a critical role in providing funding for the private sector and fostering development. In addition, the bank said its non-interest banking service is also coming up soon. At a time when accessing capital is increasingly difficult for businesses due to global financial constraints and rising inflation, BOI has emerged as a vital player with single digit interest loans while interest rates are as high as 35 percent in commercial banks. The BOI recognizes the challenges of operating in a volatile global economy and a complex domestic environment. To address these, the bank has strengthened its risk management frameworks and expanded its partnerships with government agencies and private sector stakeholders. The bank is also investing in digital transformation to improve efficiency and transparency. A new digital lending platform allows businesses to apply for loans seamlessly, reducing bottlenecks and improving access for entrepreneurs in remote areas. This technological advancement ensures that funds from the €2 billion raise are deployed effectively and equitably. Beyond its core role, the BOI has taken on broader responsibilities to support Nigeria’s development goals. It now plays a significant role in driving financial inclusion, providing training and resources to underserved demographics. The bank has also been pivotal in advancing Nigeria’s climate agenda, supporting projects that align with the global energy transition. The Bank of Industry’s €2 billion fundraising
Africa’s Big Moment: How ABC is Redefining the Continent’s Economic Future
Africa – the mother continent, a continent so diverse in tongues and ideology, rich in resources, bursting with innovation, and home to a rising wave of entrepreneurs and young talent. Africa is home to 30 percent of the world’s mineral reserves, eight percent of the world’s natural Gas and 12 percent of the world’s oil reserves. The continent has 40 percent of the world’s gold and up to 90 percent of its chromium and platinum. Yet, for all its promise, real challenges remain – infrastructural gaps, disunited markets, and limited access to trade and innovation have significantly slowed the continent’s progress. The Africa Business Convention (ABC) is here to change that as it has established itself as more than a networking event. The Africa Business Convention (ABC) was created to address these challenges head-on. As the 2025 Annual conventionapproaches, it promises to be a significant gathering for business leaders, policymakers, and investors across the continent. Scheduled for February 25th to 26th, 2025, at the Four Points by Sheraton in Lagos, the event is themed “Africa Invest.” This focus underscores the importance of investment in driving Africa’s economic transformation. Register at https://africabusinessconvention.com/event/africa-business-convention-abc-annual-meeting-2025/ This year’s annual meeting lineup includes some of the most influential voices in African business and policy – Ramesh Moochikal, the CEO of Africa Improved Foods, Kigali; Dr. Emomotimi Agama, Director General of Nigeria’s Security and Exchange Commission (SEC); Dr. Olasupo Olusi, the CEO of the Bank of Industry (BOI); Professor Peter Quartey, professor of economics and director of the Institute of Statistical, Social, and Economic Research (ISSER), Ghana; Folashade Ambrose – Medebem, Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade, and Investment (CCTI), Lagos State; Mr. Jude Chiemeka, CEO, Nigeria Exchange Ltd, and many others. It is a movement – a platform where African business leaders, policymakers, and innovators come together to address the challenges holding the continent back and create real, actionable solutions. One of the biggest pieces of this puzzle is the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This historic agreement has linked 55 African nations into one single market, promising to reshape trade, boost industrialization, and create jobs across the continent. It’s a game-changer, but not without its complexities. Businesses need clarity on policies, strategies for cross-border operations, and access to market insights to thrive in this new landscape. That’s where ABC steps in. Through expert-led panels and hands-on sessions, the convention breaks down the challenges and opportunities of AfCFTA. It gives businesses—from ambitious start-ups to established brands—the tools they need to navigate this evolving market and seize its potential. But trade alone isn’t enough to transform Africa. Infrastructure remains a significant roadblock. More than 600 million Africans still lack access to reliable electricity, and poor road networks continue to stifle growth. ABC tackles these issues head-on with its Power, Infrastructure, and Energy (PIE) stream, bringing together the brightest minds to discuss solutions. From renewable energy innovations to new funding models for infrastructure projects, the conversations at ABC are about turning big ideas into tangible progress. Technology is another key piece of the puzzle. Africa’s tech ecosystem has already made waves globally, with companies like Flutterwave and Andela grabbing headlines. But outside of a few hotspots, the adoption of technology is still uneven. That’s why ABC’s Fintech, Innovation, and Technology (FIT) stream is so important. It’s a space where start-ups and investors connect, where ground-breaking ideas—like agritech solutions for food security or fintech platforms improving access to credit—can find the spotlight they deserve. What sets ABC apart, though, is its focus on empowering African businesses to lead the continent’s growth story. Many global conventions discuss Africa’s potential from the outside looking in. ABC puts African entrepreneurs and small businesses at the centre of the conversation. With workshops on capital raising, market expansion, and strategic partnerships, it is a launchpad for businesses looking to scale and succeed. The convention also recognizes that growth isn’t just about numbers—it’s about sustainability and governance. Global markets are increasingly focused on ethical practices, and ABC ensures African businesses stay ahead of the curve. Through its Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) sessions, it equips businesses with strategies to adopt sustainable practices that not only attract investors but also build a legacy of responsible growth. But ABC is more than just a business event. It’s a platform for advocacy, one that amplifies African voices and influences global policy conversations. By driving systemic change and attracting international investment, the convention ensures that Africa isn’t just playing catch-up – it is leading the way. This year, ABC’s six focus areas – Jobs, Economy, and Trade (JET); Power, Infrastructure, and Energy (PIE); Agriculture and Food Security (AFS); Banking, Investments, and Capital (BIC); Fintech, Innovation, and Technology (FIT); and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) – are designed to tackle Africa’s most pressing challenges. These streams offer more than just discussions, they provide actionable roadmaps for addressing Africa’s most pressing challenges and unlocking its immense potential. The 2025 Africa Business Convention isn’t just about discussing what’s wrong, it is about building what’s possible. It’s about turning Africa’s potential into progress. For businesses, leaders, and change-makers, this is the platform to create the future we’ve been talking about for decades. Collectively, the continent of Africa has much to gain when there is a pulling together and an harnessing of all of its vast natural resources in order to finance the development agenda towards greater prosperity. This and many more will be discussed in depth at the ABC. Don’t just watch history unfold – help shape it. Join us at The African Business Convention on the 25th of February to the 26th of February 2025, at the Four Points by Sheraton in Lagos. Let us build and invest in Africa’s future – together. For more details and more enquiries do reach out to me via the following channels:- 📞 +2348171530058, 📧 ogho@africabusinessconvention.com parnerships@africabusinessconvention.com., 🌎 africabusinessconvention.com