Inclusive Growth: Nigeria Prioritizes Local Governance Initiatives
The Federal Government of Nigeria has reiterated its unwavering commitment to empowering local government institutions in the country, viewing them as a fundamental pillar for achieving inclusive economic growth across Nigeria. This pledge was made on Tuesday – by the Honorable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, during a high-level policy dialogue organized by AGORA Policy with support from the MacArthur Foundation. Honorable Minister Edun, emphasized that strengthening local governance is central to the Nigerian President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s strategy for poverty reduction. “Grassroots empowerment is not just a governance issue, it’s an economic imperative,” he stated. The Minister highlighted the Federal Government’s recent compliance with the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling on local government autonomy, which mandates that only democratically elected local councils now receive direct allocations from the Federation Account. He clarified that this is not a discretionary policy, but rather the government’s “constitutional obligation to uphold the judgment of the highest court of the land.” To further solidify this shift, the Federal Government has rolled out several targeted initiatives. These include the Nutrition 774 Programme, Project 774 Digital Connectivity, and the World Banksupported HOPE Programme. According to Edun, each of these interventions is specifically “designed to drive outcomes in human capital development, digital access, and local-level service efficiency — all critical to unlocking Nigeria’s long-term productivity.” Mr. Edun underscored the significance of these initiatives, asserting, “These are not symbolic gestures. They are structured investments in governance that catalyse private sector confidence, reduce economic exclusion, and foster scalable development.” He concluded by calling for enhanced collaboration among all tiers of government, stressing that the full economic benefits of local government reform can only be realized through “strategic collaboration and policy discipline.”
Wale Edun Lauds Nigeria’s Rebased GDP and Robust Q1 2025 Growth
Mr. Wale Edun, the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, has expressed strong optimism regarding Nigeria’s economic trajectory, welcoming the recently released 2024 rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and the impressive 3.13% growth recorded in Q1 2025. According to a statement from the Nigerian federal ministry of finance on Wednesday, the Minister described these developments as crucial indicators of the nation’s economic resilience and burgeoning momentum, laying a solid foundation for sustained economic takeoff. The GDP rebasing, a significant exercise undertaken by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)—the first since 2014—aligns with international best practices and provides a more accurate and comprehensive measurement of Nigeria’s economy. Minister Edun emphasized the profound importance of this rebasing, stating, “The rebased GDP provides a clearer lens through which to view Nigeria’s economic performance. It allows policymakers, investors, and citizens to better understand the true size and composition of the economy, so we can plan more effectively and deliver greater prosperity to all Nigerians.” However, rebased data paints a vivid picture of significant structural shifts within the Nigerian economy. The services sector, encompassing ICT, finance, entertainment, and professional services, now commands a substantially larger share of the GDP. While agriculture and manufacturing remain vital contributors, the relative importance of oil and gas continues to wane, underscoring the success of ongoing diversification initiatives. “These changes are not just statistical—they reflect real transitions underway in the Nigerian economy,” Edun said. He further highlighted the role of the nation’s youth, stating, “Our young, tech-savvy population is powering growth in new sectors, and our reforms are unlocking the potential of industries that were previously underrepresented in our GDP figures.” This evolving economic structure, he added, reinforces the government’s strategic investments in productivity, infrastructure, digital innovation, and human capital to spur future growth and job creation. Steady Economic Growth in 2025 Beyond the rebasing, the Minister pointed to the 3.13% year-on-year GDP growth in Q1 2025, a notable improvement from the 2.4% recorded in Q1 2024. He heralded this acceleration as clear evidence of the economy gaining significant strength under the “Renewed Hope Agenda.” The robust performance was broadly driven by strong showings in critical sectors such as agriculture, telecommunications, construction, and financial services. “We are encouraged by the broad-based nature of this growth, which is occurring across key sectors and supported by stable macroeconomic reforms,” Edun affirmed. “This trajectory reinforces our belief that Nigeria is on the path to rapid, sustained, and inclusive growth.” Looking ahead, the Minister reaffirmed the government’s ambitious medium-term goal of achieving a 7% annual GDP growth rate, aligning with national development priorities. “Our goal is not just growth, but growth with impact, especially the creation of quality jobs. The new data helps us better track progress, refine our strategies, and ensure that economic expansion translates into more jobs, higher incomes, and better living standards for all Nigerians.” He noted. The Federal Ministry of Finance extended its commendation to the National Bureau of Statistics for its unwavering professionalism and technical rigor in executing both the rebasing exercise and the quarterly GDP reports, recognizing these data tools as indispensable for designing policies grounded in reality and aimed at unlocking Nigeria’s full economic potential.
Higher Food Prices Fuel South Africa’s Inflation, Impacting Households
South Africa’s annual consumer price inflation (CPI) edged higher in June, reaching 3.0% year-onyear, up from 2.8% in April and May. This increase brings the inflation rate to the lower bound of the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%, as reported by Statistics South Africa today. The uptick in inflation was largely driven by higher food prices, particularly meat, with beef prices seeing a significant spike for the third consecutive month. Stewing beef, mince, and steak recorded substantial annual and monthly increases. Meanwhile, annual rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages reached a 15-month high of 5.1% in June. Fruits (13.5%)& nuts (10.3%)and vegetables also remained in double-digit annual increases for the second straight month. Other categories contributing to the rise include alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.4%), health (4.6%), information and communication (1.1%), recreation, sport and culture (2%), and restaurants and accommodation services (2%). Conversely, price growth slowed for housing and utilities (4.4%) and furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (1.1%), while transport costs continued to decline, albeit at a softer pace (-3.3%). On a month-on-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.3% in June, following a 0.2% rise in May. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items like food and fuel, slightly edged down to 2.9% in June from 3.0% in the previous two months. This inflation data comes ahead of the SARB’s next rate-setting meeting scheduled for next week. The central bank has already cut its repo rate twice this year, including at its last meeting in May, bringing it to 7.25%. While inflation has been near the lower end of the SARB’s 3-6% target range for nine consecutive months, the recent increase to the 3.0% mark suggests a need for caution from policymakers. The SARB has historically emphasized its preference for inflation to be anchored around the 4.5% midpoint of its target range. However, evolving inflation landscape, particularly the persistent upward pressure on food prices, will be a key factor in the SARB’s upcoming monetary policy decisions, as it navigates between supporting economic growth and maintaining price stability.
Food Insecurity: 400,000 Nigerian Children Face Imminent Death from Malnutrition, Warns UNICEF
A recent report from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) indicates that 3.5 million children in Nigeria are suffering from severe acute malnutrition, with 400,000 of these children at risk of preventable deaths within the next month and eight days if urgent action is not taken. The west African Nation has the highest population in Africa and the 6th largest in the world; with over 220million people – according to world bank. This alarming statistic was highlighted by Judith Leveille, UNICEF Nigeria’s Chief of Field Operations and Emergencies, during a press briefing in Abuja the state capital. The dire situation is particularly acute in the North-East and North-West regions of Nigeria, where admissions for severe acute malnutrition have “surged by up to 40% in the Northeast and 73% in some cities.” A critical concern raised by UNICEF is the potential stockout of essential nutrition commodities, particularly Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF), which is vital for treating severe acute malnutrition. A stockout is anticipated by September 1st, leaving a narrow window to curb the escalation. UNICEF emphasizes that more can be done to ensure all severely acutely malnourished children receive the treatment they need. The agency points out that the mortality rates for these children range from 3.7% to 7.7%, representing a significant loss of potential future leaders, scientists, and contributors to Nigerian society. However, the report also underscores the broader malnutrition crisis in Nigeria, which has the second-highest burden of stunted children globally, with 32% of children under five affected. While progress has been made in reducing severe child food poverty in Nigeria (from 45% in 2012 to 32% in 2022), much more is needed to ensure every child has access to a diverse and nutritious diet. Malnutrition is identified as a direct or underlying cause of 45% of all deaths of children under five in Nigeria. Factors contributing to this crisis include poverty, climate change, lack of access to food, and security issues. UNICEF continues to call for coordinated action from the government and international partners to address this critical public health emergency.
Nigeria will Achieve Single digit Inflation Soon – Cardoso
Following the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Tuesday; the CBN governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso expressed optimism about the country’s inflation figures stating that “inflation in the country is coming under greater control.” According to reports from the Nigerian Apex Bank; the MPC at the 301st meeting voted unanimously to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50% for the third time in a roll this year. The bank noted that– it is prioritizing stability and mindfully watching the country inflation rates which has been on a steady decline since this year, and currently at 22.22% according to NBS. Cardoso told newsmen that the Bank aims to achieve single-digit inflation given the positive economic trajectory. He has also assured that the Bank will be transparent in managing Nigerians’ inflation expectations. Furthermore, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso has cited stability in the foreign exchange market, a positive trade surplus in Nigeria, and the restoration of investor confidence as major outcomes of the reforms under his watch as CBN Governor. The CBN is also determined to collaborate with fiscal authorities to ensure consistency in policy thrust and reduce uncertainties. However, during committee meeting, the MPC observed stable financial soundness indicators and urged sustained regulatory oversight to ensure continued resilience, safety, and soundness of the banking system. With eight months remaining until the end of the banking recapitalisation programme, Governor Cardoso announced that eight banks have already exceeded the minimum recapitalisation requirement, while others are making progress to meet up before the deadline. Meanwhile, investors interest in Nigeria’s banking sector has increased, and that the Bank remains committed to enforcing rules to maintain stability and sustain confidence. “We are strengthening thought leadership at the CBN, engaging with diverse perspectives, enhancing learning channels, and encouraging open dialogue. The CBN is evolving, shifting from how you have traditionally seen the Bank to a more inclusive, dynamic, and transparent institution.” The apex bank chief Olayemi Cardoso Stated.
First Time in History; U.S Exports More Crude to Nigeria than it Imported – EIA
Chidozie Nwali According to recent statement on Tuesday, from the United state of America (USA) Energy Information Administration (EIA); Production activities from the dangote refinery has led to significant hunger for crude oil in Nigeria – Africa largest crude oil exporter. The US exported more crude oil to Nigeria more than it received from Nigeria for the first time in February and March 2025. EIA said that: “U.S. gross exports of crude oil to Nigeria reached 111,000 barrels per day (b/d) in February 2025 and 169,000 b/d in March. Over the same period, U.S. gross crude oil imports from Nigeria fell, from 133,000 b/d in January to 54,000 b/d in February and 72,000 b/d in March.” However, during this period, refinery maintenance on the U.S. East Coast drove down U.S. demand for crude oil imports, including imports from Nigeria, and the relatively new Dangote refinery in Nigeria drove up Nigeria’s demand for inputs, including crude oil it imported from the U.S. marking the first time that the U.S was a net crude oil exporter to Nigeria. Dangote Refinery In January 2024, the Dangote refinery located in lekki free trade zone, Lagos State, Nigeria; began processing crude oil, and in the following month Nigeria imported crude oil from the United States. Nigeria is more commonly considered a crude oil source to the U.S. The Dangote refinery is scheduled to reach full crude oil distillation capacity of 650,000 barrels perday (p/d) this year; trade press reports indicate it is currently running at about 550,000 b/d. However, the refinery will likely continue processing imports of crude oil if the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) does not increase crude oil deliveries beyond the 300,000 b/d it currently delivers. Revenue generated from crude oil sales to the Dangote refinery are denominated in Naira, Nigeria’s domestic currency. Because the Naira has weakened relative to the U.S. dollar. the NNPC has an economic incentive to sell its crude oil on international markets. Experts argues that the NNPC’s ability to increase deliveries may be limited because crude oil production by the NNPC and its partners has generally declined, falling from a peak of 2.4 million b/ d in 2005 to 1.6 million b/d in 2025.
Nigeria’s MPR Unchanged at 27.50% as CBN Prioritizes Stability
On Tuesday, July 22, 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its 301st meeting, where it decided to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50%. This decision signals the committee’s continued stance on monetary tightening in efforts to manage inflation and stabilize the economy. Further details from the MPC meeting indicate that the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for Commercial Banks remains at 50%, while that for Merchant Banks is set at 16%. The Liquidity Ratio (LR) was also retained at 30%. These measures are aimed at managing liquidity in the banking system and influencing the flow of credit in the economy. Additionally, the Asymmetric Corridor around the MPR was maintained at +500 and -100 basis points. This corridor defines the bounds within which the CBN will lend to or borrow from commercial banks, providing a framework for interest rate operations around the benchmark MPR. The retention of these key monetary policy parameters suggests that the MPC believes the current settings are appropriate to address prevailing economic conditions, even as it continues to monitor developments. This move is consistent with the CBN’s efforts to achieve price stability and foster sustainable economic growth.
AAM2025: Afreximbank to Unlock US$1 Billion Project Investments in Africa
African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), at The 32nd Annual Meetings witnessed a flurry of deal signings with four project preparation transactions signed between the Bank and various entities that are expected to unlock investments valued at about US$ 1.0 billion. According to a statement from the bank on Monday, NBS Bank Plc (NBS), Malawi, signed a deal with Afreximbank to pool resources together and provide early project preparatory financing to progress projects in Malawi from pre-feasibility stage to bankability in a timely manner. The deal was signed by Mrs. Kanayo Awani, Executive Vice President, Intra-African Trade and Export Development, for Afreximbank, and Mrs. Temwani Simwaka, CEO, for NBS Bank Plc. “Afreximbank and NBS expect to bring onstream investments of about US$ 300 million in Malawi in the near term.” The statement said. However, in another transaction, Afreximbank signed a US$ 4.4-million Project Preparation Facility Agreement in favour of Med Aditus Pharmaceutical Kenya Limited. The facility will be deployed to finance the development of a state-of-the-art fill and finish pharmaceutical manufacturing plant, with a production capacity of at least two billion tablets and capsules per annum, located in Kibos, Kisumu County, Kenya. Afreximbank said the “project will also facilitate medical and manufacturing blockchain technology transfer to Africa, supporting the long-term growth and strengthening the wider region’s health sector. The project preparation facility will bring onstream assets of about US$ 40 million.” The bank further signed a Heads of Terms agreement for a US$4.4-million project preparation facility in favour of Green Hybrid Power Private Limited; for a 1-Gigawatt (GW) hybrid floating solar photovoltaic power system on Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. “The project preparation facility will unlock an investment estimated at US$ 350 million.” Afreximbank, in addition, signed a Project Preparation Facility Heads of Terms Agreement of US$ 4.0 million in favour of Proton Energy Limited, a Nigerian independent power producer. The facility is for the development of a grid-connected gas-fired power plant with a nameplate capacity of 500 MW in Sapele, Nigeria. The facility is expected to bring on stream assets estimated at US$ 300 million.
Nigerian Oil & Gas Sector Sees Progress in June 2025
The Nigerian National Petroleum corporation (NNPC) Limited, had a strong June 2025, according to their latest monthly report. The corporation showed solid performance and made important strides in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. They produced 1.68 million barrels of crude oil and other petroleum liquids daily, alongside 7,581 million standard cubic feet of natural gas each day. Financially, NNPC Limited Monthly report, showed a significant revenue of NGN 4,571 billion and a profit after tax of NGN 905 billion for June 2025. The company also made substantial statutory payments totaling NGN 6,961 billion from January to May. Meanwhile,upstream pipeline availability stood at a robust 97%. A key strategic effort noted in the report is the ongoing industry-wide collaborations aimed at improving production and optimizing costs. NNPC also had notable achievements such as: the successful completion of the Ajaokuta-KadunaKano (AKK) gas pipeline’s River Niger Crossing, which significantly de-risked the overall project. The report states, “AKK: Successfully completed the AKK River Niger Crossing which significantly derisked the completion of the mainline”. However, this success is now being leveraged for the technical review of the Obiafu-Obrikom gas (OB3) River Niger crossing, with the aim of replicating the learnings. Also, updates on the status of the Port Harcourt Refining Company (PHRC), Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company (WRPC), and Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company (KRPC) reviews are also progressing. Beyond its core operations, NNPC Limited has been actively involved in public impact initiatives.
Services Sector Drives Nigeria’s 3.13% GDP Growth in Q1 2025
Chidozie Nwali Following the rebasing exercises of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), data shows the economy experienced a significant upturn in the first quarter of 2025, with the GDP growing by a notable “3.13% (year-on-year) in real terms,” according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The report, released in July 2025, highlights the pivotal role of the Services sector in this expansion, marking an improvement from the 2.27% growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. Overall, Nigeria’s aggregate GDP reached “N94,051,733.20 million in nominal terms,” N49.34 trillion Naira in real GDP for the first quarter of 2025, representing an 18.30% year-on-year nominal growth. This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2024, “which recorded an aggregate GDP of N79,505,265.15 million.” The Services sector emerged as the primary engine of growth, demonstrating a robust expansion of “4.33% and contributed 57.50% to the aggregate GDP” in Q1 2025. Following the Services sector, the Industry sector also showed positive momentum, growing by “3.42%, from 2.35% recorded in the first quarter of 2024.” While positive, the Agriculture sector’s growth was more modest at “0.07%, from the growth of -1.79% recorded in the first quarter of 2024.” This robust performance was largely propelled by the strength of the non-oil sector. The non-oil sector, a significant contributor to the nation’s economy, expanded by “3.19% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2025)” and contributed a commanding “96.03% to the nation’s GDP.” According to NBS. However, the report stated that; the growth was predominantly fueled by key industries within the Services sector, including “Information and Communication (Telecommunications); Real Estate; Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); and Trade.” Other significant drivers included Agriculture (Crop production), Construction, and Manufacturing (Food, Beverage and Tobacco). In contrast, the oil sector, despite an increase in average daily oil production to “1.62 million barrels per day (mbpd)” in Q1 2025 (up from 1.57 mbpd in Q1 2024), recorded a real growth of “1.87% (year-on-year),” which represents a decrease of 2.85% points compared to the 4.71% recorded in Q1 2024. The oil sector’s overall contribution to the total real GDP in Q1 2025 was “3.97%,” further emphasizing the non-oil sector’s dominant role. The NBS report highlights the continued diversification of Nigeria’s economy, with the Services sector taking the lead in driving sustainable growth and contributing significantly to Nigeria’s economic resilience.