Nigeria’s Economy Much Larger Than Previously Thought, After Rebasing – NBS
By Chidozie Nwali Nigeria’s economic landscape has been significantly redefined following the recent rebasing exercise of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which has revealed a substantially larger economy than previously estimated. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Monday reported a “41.7% increase in 2019 Nominal GDP” over the old base year’s figures, a move that shifts the base year from 2010 to 2019 to better reflect the nation’s current economic structure and activities. NBS report noted that the comprehensive exercise, was conducted in line with international best practices, covering the period between 2019 and 2023, with 2019 chosen due to its “relative stability of the domestic economy.” The rebased estimates show Nigeria’s nominal GDP at market prices for 2019 standing at N205.09 trillion ($133 billion). This figure is projected to rise to N314.02 trillion ($204.11 billion) in 2023 and further to N372.82 trillion ($242.33 billion USD) in 2024, painting a picture of a more robust economy. Beyond the headline figures, the rebasing exercise has shown significant shifts in Nigeria’s economic structure. The report highlights a “rise in the share of agriculture and services sectors and a fall in the share of the industries sector in nominal terms, indicating a shift in the structure of the Nigerian economy than earlier reported.” Specifically, in 2019, agriculture’s contribution increased to 25.83% (from 22.12% pre-rebasing), while industry’s share declined to 21.08% (from 27.65%). Conversely, the services sector saw its share grow to 53.09% (from 50.22%). One of the most notable changes in sectoral ranking is the ascendance of real estate, which “ranked third displacing crude oil and natural gas to the fifth position.” This re-evaluation is largely attributed to “better coverage of the real estate informal sector.” The top five economic activities in the rebased 2019 estimates are now crop production (17.58%), trade (17.42%), real estate (10.78%), telecommunications (6.78%), and crude petroleum and natural gas (5.85%). The rebasing also led to improved sectoral coverage across the board. The water transport subsector, experienced “significant revisions and improvements” due to the inclusion of activities from key maritime agencies. Similarly, the agriculture sector’s data was enhanced through national sample censuses and surveys, resulting in “significant revisions in forestry (843%) and livestock (458%).” The informal sector’s contribution to the gross domestic product also saw an increase, rising to 42.5% from the previously recorded 41.4%. NBS stated that the methodology employed for this rebasing was rigorous, involving the construction of a Supply and Use Table (SUT) with detailed industry and product breakdowns, covering 46 industries and 217 products. The exercise incorporated data from major censuses and surveys, including the National Business Sample Census, Survey of Establishments, National Agriculture Sample Census and Survey, and the Nigeria Living Standard Survey. Furthermore, new and emerging economic activities such as digital economic activities, pension funds administration, and modular refineries were integrated.
Nigerian Businesses Optimistic for Q3 2025 Despite Persisting Challenges – CBN
According to a recent report from the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN), there’s a significant indication of a broad-based optimism among respondent firms regarding the macroeconomic outlook for June 2025 and the subsequent months, driven by favorable expectations concerning the volume of business activity. The CBN June 2025 Business Expectation Survey Report (BES), shows all sectors surveyed expressed optimism about the macroeconomy in June 2025, with the Industry Sector showing the highest confidence. The Mining & Quarrying; Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Sector anticipates the highest expansion plan for July 2025. Firms also expect the Naira to appreciate across the review periods. The Agriculture sector recorded the highest capacity utilization in June 2025. Looking ahead, respondent firms are optimistic that the volume of business activity in July, September, and December 2025 will be favorable. All sectors reported a positive outlook for employment and expansion for all periods under review. Despite this prevailing optimism, businesses identified several significant operational challenges. “firms identified significant operational challenges to include: high interest rates, insecurity and insufficient power supply, which could potentially moderate future growth”. These factors directly impact operational stability and profitability. Other notable constraints included high bank charges, unfavorable economic climate, unclear economic laws, high taxes, financial problems, unfavorable political climate, and poor infrastructure. Meanwhile, these constraints suggests that economic and financial risks are more prominent concerns than political challenges during the review period. The survey, conducted from June 16 to 20, 2025, included 1,900 business enterprises across Nigeria and achieved a response rate of 98.1%, covering the Industry, Services, and Agriculture sectors.
Youth Entrepreneurship: Liberia, AfDB Partner to Launch Youth Entrepreneurship Investment Bank
In a significant move set to boost youth entrepreneurship in Liberia, the Government of Liberia and the African Development Bank (AfDB) are poised to officially launch the nation’s first Youth Entrepreneurship Investment Bank (YEIB) on Tuesday, to help tackle youth unemployment in Liberia. According to a report from AfDB today; “this $17.8 million initiative makes Liberia the first country to host the pan-African financial institution for youth entrepreneurs.” AFDB noted. The YEIB is the idea of African Development Bank Group President, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina; who aims to unlock the vast potential of Liberia’s young population by providing crucial financial and non-financial support for youth-led micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Meanwhile, the establishment of the YEIB is a direct response to the prevalent challenges faced by young Liberian entrepreneurs, including a fragmented early-stage business development ecosystem and severely limited access to finance. Historically, financial institutions in Liberia have been hesitant to lend resources to youth-led ventures, often due to perceived high risks, lack of collateral, and the absence of a robust support structure. AfDB noted that; YEIB seeks to address these critical market failures head-on. “The banks will help establish over 150 youth-led enterprises, create jobs, and unlock more than $500 million in additional lending over the next decade.” AFDB noted. The initiative, once launched will target youths between the age of 18-35 and address critical youth unemployment. 60% of Liberia’s population are under 35. AfDB emphasized that; unlike traditional banks, the YEIB will introduce models that are both short and long term investment-friendly and supports strategic risks. “ YEIB model combines three innovative components: an early-stage investment fund for direct equity investments, a Technical Assistance Fund for business development services, and a Credit Guarantee Fund for risk-sharing mechanisms.” The YEIB is jointly financed by the African Development Fund (US$15.9M), Korea Africa Economic Cooperation (US$0.7M), and the Government of Liberia (US$1.2M in-kind). However, Youth Entrepreneurship Investment Banks have earlier been approved in other African countries such as: Liberia, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Côte d’Ivoire, but launching and operations are yet commence. The launch of YEIB in Liberia on Tuesday, marks the start of a continent-wide drive to boost youth entrepreneurship and access to finance, driven by the African Development Bank Group.
Nigerian Stock Market Hits N83.2 Trillion: FCMB, Fidelity Bank Leads Rally
The Nigerian stock market closed trading on Friday, July 18, 2025, with a significant surge, pushing its overall market capitalization to N83.2 trillion. This notable milestone was largely influenced by strong trading activity in the shares of First City Monument Bank (FCMB) Group Plc and Fidelity Bank Plc, which led the volume chart for the day. Recent data from the Nigerian exchange group (NGX) shows the Nigerian All-Share Index (ASI) concluded the trading session in positive territory, gaining 1,301.8 points to close at 131,585.6. This represented a 1.00% increase from the previous session’s close of 130,283.8 points, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment across the market. FCMB and Fidelity Bank emerged as the top performers in terms of trading volume. Fidelity Bank, in particular, topped the value chart with trades worth N23 billion, while FCMB followed closely with N12.6 billion. Other significant contributors to trading value included Zenith Bank Plc (N3.6 billion), Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (N3.2 billion), and Access Holdings Plc (N3.06 billion). The market’s robust performance saw its capitalization surpass the N83 trillion mark for the first time, settling at N83.2 trillion across 28,593 deals, with the All-Share Index having already surged by 8.6% month-on-month in July 2025 and a year-to-date performance of +27.8%. Equities market had previously gained over N14 trillion in the first half of 2025, with total market capitalization of NGX-listed instruments rising by 16 percent from N112.60 trillion in January to N126.73 trillion by June. The sustained growth in the Nigerian equities market is attributed to factors such as structural reforms, strong regulatory engagement, and a rerouting of funds from the fixed income market into equities as treasury bill rates moderate. Analysts maintain a positive outlook for the market, with ongoing investor confidence contributing to its upward trajectory.
Oil Prices Climb Following Drone Attacks in Iraq, African Economies Watchout
Global oil prices continued their upward trajectory this week as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions fueled market anxieties. Meanwhile, African oil-dependent economies brace for uncertainty as rising crude prices threaten to exacerbate inflationary pressures and fiscal challenges. For four consecutive days, drone attacks have targeted oil facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan, slashing the region’s output by more than half, from approximately 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) to between 140,000 bpd and 150,000 bpd. While no group has claimed responsibility, energy officials have pointed to Iran-backed militias as the likely perpetrators. The disruptions come at a time when the global oil market is already experiencing robust demand, particularly due to the peak summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere. JPMorgan analysts noted that global oil demand in the first two weeks of July averaged 105.2 million bpd, a 600,000 bpd increase from a year earlier and largely in line with forecasts. Analysts warn that further escalations could push Brent crude—already hovering near multi-month highs ($70 pb)—toward the $90-per-barrel threshold. “The market is pricing in not just current disruptions but the potential for wider instability,” said a senior energy strategist at a leading commodities firm. Mixed Impact While higher oil prices typically benefit exporting nations, African crude producers face a complex economic landscape. Countries like Nigeria, Angola, and Libya stand to gain from increased revenue. For Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, the rally offers a much-needed fiscal boost after years of declining output due to pipeline vandalism and underfunded infrastructure. Nigeria had earlier calculated its national budget revenue on a benchmark of $75 pd. The recent price hike to round $70 posses a modest recovery from the crude oil price dip recorded earlier this year. However, Angola—which recently exited OPEC—continues to battle dwindling production capacity, raising doubts over its ability to meet export commitments. On the flip side, net importers such as Kenya, South Africa, and Senegal face mounting pressure as rising fuel costs threaten to drive inflation and strain household budgets. Many African nations still rely on fuel subsidies to cushion consumers, but with government finances already stretched, further price hikes could force painful policy adjustments. Market Outlook: Volatility Ahead With geopolitical risks showing no signs of abating, traders remain on edge. The Israel-Hamas conflict, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, and now the Iraqi drone strikes have all contributed to a risk premium in oil markets. “Until there’s clear evidence that supply chains are secure, prices will remain elevated,” noted an industry analyst. The coming weeks will be critical as OPEC+ prepares for its next policy meeting, where any decision to extend or deepen production cuts could further influence market dynamics. For now, African economies—both producers and importers—must navigate the turbulence, balancing short-term gains against long-term structural challenges. As oil prices climb, the divide between winners and losers in the global energy market grows ever wider.
Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee to Convene 301st Meeting Amidst Easing Inflation
According to a statement from the Nigerian apex bank today, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) prepares to hold its 301st meeting on Monday, July 21st, and Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025. This crucial two-day deliberation, scheduled to take place at the CBN headquarters in Abuja, comes following moderation in inflation and signs of improved foreign exchange stability. the upcoming meeting follows the MPC’s decision in May 2025 (its 300th meeting) to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50 percent, along with other key parameters like the asymmetric corridor, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), and Liquidity Ratio. That unanimous decision, supported by all 12 MPC members, reflected a cautious stance, aiming to allow previous policies to take effect and to monitor evolving macroeconomic fundamentals. Analysts are keenly observing the current economic landscape, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has slowed for the third consecutive month, reaching 22.22 percent in June 2025, down from 22.97 percent in May. The CBN’s recent efforts to foster transparency and credibility in the FX market, including the implementation of the Electronic Foreign Exchange System (EFEMS), are also contributing to improved FX liquidity and investor confidence. However, the MPC faces a complex balancing act. While inflation shows signs of slowing, it remains significantly above the CBN’s target. Concerns also persist regarding structural challenges such as insecurity and high transport costs, which continue to exert cost-push pressures on prices. Furthermore, the committee in its last meeting had warned against premature rate cuts that could destabilize the Naira, especially as its recent gains have been supported by attractive yields on Open Market Operation (OMO) bills. Market watchers are divided on the likely outcome of the 301st meeting. Some analysts anticipate the MPC will maintain its current policy stance, preferring a “wait and see” approach to consolidate recent gains and ensure sustained stability.
First HoldCo: Otudeko, Odukale Sell Off Substantial Stakes; Otedola Takes Control
First HoldCo Plc, the parent company of Nigeria’s oldest financial institution, First Bank of Nigeria Limited, has witnessed a significant shift in its ownership structure as key shareholders, Oba Otudeko and Oye Hassan-Odukale, have divested their huge stakes. This landmark transaction, executed through a series of off-market negotiated deals, has cleared the path for billionaire businessman Femi Otedola, the current chairman, to consolidate his control over the financial powerhouse. The news was met with immediate positive sentiment in the market, with First HoldCo’s share price surging by 9.9% to N32.2 per unit on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) following the announcement, pushing its market capitalization beyond N1.3 trillion. This robust performance underscores investor confidence in the newfound stability and strategic direction anticipated under Otedola’s leadership. Meanwhile, confirmed exit of Oba Otudeko, a former chairman of First Bank, involved a colossal N323.33 billion transaction, with 10.43 billion ordinary shares changing hands in 17 off-market deals at an average price of N31 per share. This represents approximately 25% of the group’s issued share capital. While the acquirer’s identity was not immediately disclosed in regulatory filings, market speculation and subsequent reports strongly indicate that Femi Otedola was the primary beneficiary, significantly increasing his shareholding from an initial 15% to an estimated 40% of the company. Oye Hassan-Odukale also reportedly sold his 5.36% stake, further cementing Otedola’s dominant position. This development brings to a close years of boardroom skirmishes and shareholder disputes that have often overshadowed First HoldCo’s operational focus. Oba Otudeko’s re-entry into the major shareholder league in July 2023, acquiring 4.7 billion shares, had reignited a protracted governance battle. Prior to this, Otedola had emerged as the single largest shareholder in December 2021. The latest divestment by Otudeko and Odukale is widely seen as a resolution to these long-standing conflicts. Market analysts believe this strategic ownership shift will usher in a new era for First HoldCo, characterized by enhanced stability and a clearer strategic vision. The increased influence of Femi Otedola is expected to bring a renewed focus on long-term growth strategies, potentially mirroring the success he has achieved in other ventures. However, First HoldCo still faces the immediate challenge of meeting the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalization directive, which mandates all banks to achieve a minimum capital base of N500 billion. As of June, First HoldCo had reportedly raised N346 billion, leaving a shortfall that will need to be addressed to meet regulatory requirements. The exit of these long-standing shareholders marks a pivotal moment in First HoldCo’s history, signaling the end of an era of contentious ownership and the beginning of what many hope will be a period of sustained growth and stability under a more consolidated leadership.
Nigeria: AFDB Leads $263million Five-year Urbanization Funding in Abia state
The Africa Development Bank and Partners commits $263.8 Million for Infrastructure Project in Abia State, south-eastern Nigeria. marking a significant stride in the state urban development agenda with the Integrated Infrastructure Development Project. The five-year project, a collaborative effort between the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), Nigeria’s Federal Government, and the Abia State government, aims to modernize urban infrastructure, enhance mobility, and foster inclusive, climate-resilient growth in the cities of Umuahia and Aba. Statement released on Wednesday by the AFDB noted the project will directly confronts longstanding infrastructure deficiencies in urban transport, erosion control, and waste management that have hampered mobility, public health, and economic productivity in Abia State. Over the next five years, it will see the rehabilitation of more than 248 kilometers of roads in Umuahia and Aba, the restoration of two critical erosion sites, and the catalysis of private sector investment in solid waste management through public-private partnerships. Funding for this ambitious undertaking is robust and diversified. The African Development Bank is contributing $115 million, comprising $100 million from its ADB window and $15 million from the Canada-AfDB Climate Fund (CACF). The Islamic Development Bank is co-financing with a substantial $125 million, while the Federal Government of Nigeria is providing $23.8 million in counterpart funding. Abia State, like many burgeoning regions, has grappled with mounting infrastructure challenges due to rapid urban expansion, environmental pressures, and historical underinvestment. Cities like Umuahia ( state capital)and Aba have faced aging road networks, persistent erosion threats, and overburdened waste management systems. This project signals a decisive shift towards an integrated, climate-resilient approach to urban development, designed to support inclusive growth and long-term sustainability. Speaking on the latest development, Dr. Alex C. Otti, Governor of Abia State, emphasized the significance of the initiative for the State’s infrastructure renewal. He stated, “The fruits of development are richer when supported by partners who believe in your vision. We are focused on raising living standards, expanding access to education and healthcare, and driving economic productivity. Investor confidence is growing, public optimism is rising, and Abia is emerging as a destination of choice for opportunity and impact.” Beyond the physical infrastructure, the project is designed with a strong focus on job creation and skills development. It is anticipated to generate over 3,000 temporary jobs during the construction phase, with a commitment to reserving 30 percent of these for women. Furthermore, approximately 1,000 permanent jobs will be created during the operational phase, with a key feature being that 50 percent of these roles will be allocated to young people. These young individuals will receive training through the State Youth Road Maintenance Corps, a new cadre of local engineers drawn from all 17 Local Government Areas of Abia State. Dr. Akande Oyebola, Assistant Director at the International Economic Relations Department of the Federal Ministry of Finance, reaffirmed the Nigerian Government’s commitment to the project, saying, “This initiative represents a significant milestone in our collective effort to drive economic growth, strengthen infrastructure, and improve the quality of life for the people of Abia State.” Dr. Abdul Kamara, Director General of the African Development Bank’s Nigeria Country Department, commended the leadership of both the federal and state governments. He remarked, “This project is rooted in partnership, ambition and long-term impact. At its core, this project is about lives, it is about reducing travel time by half, increasing incomes, improving access to schools and hospitals, and creating space for entrepreneurs, particularly women and youth, to thrive.”
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 22.22% in June 2025
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate saw a notable decrease in June 2025, easing to 22.22% from 22.97% in May 2025. This represents a 0.75% decline compared to the previous month’s headline inflation rate. On a year-on-year basis, the June 2025 headline inflation rate was 11.97% lower than the 34.19% recorded in June 2024. Report from Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today, shows a closer look at the data reveals an uptick in month-on-month inflation. The headline inflation rate for June 2025 was 1.68%, a 0.15% increase from the 1.53% recorded in May 2025. This indicates that “the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in May 2025.” The Consumer Price Index (CPI) itself rose to 123.4 in June 2025, marking a 2.0-point increase from 121.4 in May. The CPI serves as a key macroeconomic indicator, measuring changes in the average prices of goods and services commonly purchased by consumers, relative to a 2024 base period. The inflation rate is directly computed from this index, representing the relative change in CPI between periods, reported both year-on-year and month-on-month. Key Contributions to Inflation: At the divisional level, “Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages” continued to be the primary contributor to year-on-year headline inflation at 8.89%. Other significant contributors included: On a month-on-month basis, “Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages” also led with a 0.67% contribution. However, the report shows that Urban inflation on a year-on-year basis in June 2025 was 22.72%, a decrease of 13.83% points from 36.55% in June 2024. The urban month-on-month inflation rate increased to 2.11% in June 2025, up by 0.71% from May 2025 (1.40%). Rural inflation, year-on-year, stood at 20.85% in June 2025, 11.24% points lower than the 32.09% recorded in June 2024. Conversely, the rural month-on-month inflation rate decreased to 0.63% in June 2025, down by 1.2% compared to May 2025 (1.83%). Meanwhile, year-on-year Food inflation rate in June 2025 was 21.97%, a significant drop of 18.93% points compared to 40.87% in June 2024. This substantial decline is attributed to a “change in the base year.” However, the month-on-month Food inflation rate in June 2025 increased to 3.25%, up by 1.07% from 2.19% in May 2025. NBS data shows this increase was primarily driven by rising average prices of items such as “Green Peas (Dried), Pepper (Fresh), Shrimps (white dried), Crayfish, Meat (Fresh), Tomatoes (Fresh), Plantain Flour, Ground Pepper, etc.” Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produces and energy prices, was 22.76% yearon-year in June 2025. This represents a decline of 4.64% compared to 27.4% in June 2024. Monthon-month, core inflation was 2.46% in June 2025, an increase of 1.36% from May 2025 (1.10%). Across Nigeria, Borno, Abuja, and Benue recorded the highest year-on-year “All Items” inflation rates in June 2025, at 31.63%, 26.79%, and 25.91% respectively. Conversely, Zamfara (9.90%), Yobe (13.51%), and Sokoto (15.78%) experienced the slowest rise in headline inflation on a year-onyear basis. For month-on-month “All Items” inflation, Ekiti (5.39%), Delta (5.15%), and Lagos (5.13%) saw the highest increases. Meanwhile, Zamfara (-6.89%), Niger (-5.35%), and Plateau (-4.01%) recorded declines in month-on-month inflation. In terms of food inflation, Borno (47.40%), Ebonyi (30.62%), and Bayelsa (28.64%) had the highest year-on-year rates. Katsina (6.21%), Adamawa (10.90%), and Sokoto (15.25%) recorded the slowest year-on-year food inflation. Month-on-month food inflation was highest in Enugu (11.90%), Kwara (9.97%), and Rivers (9.88%), while Borno (-7.63%), Sokoto (-6.43%), and Bayelsa (-6.34%) experienced declines.
Nigerian Stock Market Sees Strong Growth in First Half of 2025
The Nigerian stock market experienced significant growth in the first half of 2025, a performance attributed by Temi Popoola, Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), to a deliberate focus on structural reforms and strong regulatory engagement. The first half of 2025 showed strong momentum across various asset classes. The total market capitalization of instruments listed on the NGX increased by 16%, rising from N112.60 trillion in January to N126.73 trillion by June. This growth was primarily driven by equities, which saw an increase from N62.76 trillion to N75.95 trillion. Fixed income remained stable at N50.56 trillion, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) gained traction among retail investors, growing to N25.79 billion. According to a statement from the NGX on Wednesday, Mr. Popoola committing on the performance, said, “We have worked closely with the Securities and Exchange Commission to enhance market transparency, drive product diversification, and strengthen investor protections. Our aim is to build a market that competes globally while remaining inclusive and resilient.” NGX Group, which includes Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), NGX Regulation (NGX RegCo), and NGX Real Estate (NGX RelCo), has adopted a multi-layered approach to market development. The Group is strategically positioned to support Nigeria’s economic ambitions through a more efficient and accessible capital market by championing product innovation, advocating for favorable policies, and reinforcing investor confidence. Over N4.63 trillion in capital was raised through the exchange in the first half of 2025, encompassing both corporate and sovereign instruments. This capital has been crucial in financing infrastructure, supporting enterprise growth, and spurring innovation. Part of this success is linked to strategic initiatives launched in 2024, such as NGX Invest. This digital platform was created to simplify participation in public offerings. Since its introduction, NGX Invest has expanded access to primary market instruments and played a central role in the ongoing banking sector recapitalization, facilitating over N2 trillion in capital raised. David Adonri, Vice Chairman of Equity Capital Solution Limited, observed, “The equities market appreciated by 16.6 per cent in the first half, with Q2 alone contributing 13.6 per cent. Stabilising interest rates and foreign exchange conditions have restored investor confidence, particularly among foreign portfolio investors.” Sectoral performance further underscored the overall market optimism. The NGX Consumer Goods Index advanced by 51.21%, while the NGX Pension and Banking indices rose by 19.32% and 18.06%, respectively, indicating resilience across key sectors.