Nigeria climbed four places on Bloomberg’s 2026 Africa investment scorecard, the biggest move in the ranking. The two categories President Bola Tinubu’s reforms have not touched are still holding it down.
The country rose from 12th to eighth among 19 economies in the Bloomberg Economics Investment Risk-O-Meter, published with Businessweek’s 2026 Investor’s Guide to Africa.
It passed Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia on the back of better scores for economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability. Mauritius leads, with a risk rating of 0.6. South Africa, first last year, slipped to second at 0.5 after a weaker growth outlook. Nigeria’s overall rating is 0.1.
| Rank | Country | Risk rating |
| 1 | Mauritius | 0.6 |
| 2 | South Africa | 0.5 |
| 3 | Egypt | 0.3 |
| 4 | Ghana | 0.3 |
| 5 | Botswana | 0.3 |
| 6 | Ivory Coast | 0.3 |
| 7 | Morocco | 0.2 |
| 8 | Nigeria | 0.1 |
| 9 | Rwanda | 0.0 |
| 10 | Tanzania | 0.0 |
| 11 | Kenya | 0.0 |
| 12 | Namibia | −0.1 |
| 13 | Ethiopia | −0.2 |
| 14 | Zambia | −0.2 |
| 15 | Angola | −0.2 |
| 16 | Uganda | −0.2 |
| 17 | Senegal | −0.3 |
| 18 | DR Congo | −0.5 |
| 19 | Mozambique | −0.8 |
A higher rating means lower relative risk. Egypt, Ghana, Botswana and Ivory Coast share 0.3, so their order is the sequence Bloomberg displays.
The split inside Nigeria’s score is sharper than the rank. It posted 0.4 on economic strength, 0.6 on fiscal strength and 1.4 on external vulnerability, the best mark in that column among the markets shown. Institutions and governance came in at −1.2. Infrastructure was −0.5. Bloomberg converts the five factors into z-scores so countries are ranked against each other rather than against a fixed safety line.
Yvonne Mhango, an Africa economist quoted by Bloomberg, called Nigeria the standout mover. Rebased GDP, firmer growth and a better external position have lifted its macro credentials, she said, “but weak institutions and infrastructure remain important constraints.”
Those macro gains track the reforms Tinubu launched after taking office in 2023: removal of the petrol subsidy, a freer foreign-exchange market and higher electricity tariffs, aimed at cutting fiscal distortions and easing the currency squeeze.
Growth reached 3.85 percent in 2025, then 3.89 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and 4.43 percent in the second, on figures reported with the ranking. Rebasing did part of the work too.
The rest of the table shows why a higher rank is not the same as a cleaner risk. Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya sit at zero, behind Nigeria overall but without its institutional score.
Botswana fell two places and South Africa one, a reminder that the gauge moves with the growth outlook. Nigeria’s rise will look thinner if the fiscal and external improvement fades once the rebasing effect drops out.
Investors are not being told the market is safe. The Risk-O-Meter is a relative guide to where a higher return may be required.
Nigeria has shifted the variables a government can move inside one term. Contract enforcement, regulatory predictability, power and logistics are still where they were. Until those move, eighth place is a better macro entry point in a market Bloomberg’s own scorecard still treats as structurally constrained.
