Nigerian President, Bola Tinubu has signed a landmark order offering tax credits to unlock up to $50 billion in deep offshore oil and gas investment, targeting long-stalled projects.
The announcement came in a statement posted by the president on X and detailed by the State House on Tuesday, following the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order.
The framework begins with Shell’s approximately $10 billion Bonga South West project and sets a December 31, 2029 deadline for final investment decisions on existing leases to secure full incentives.
“We cannot afford to leave that opportunity beneath our waters for another decade,” Tinubu said, stressing the need for investor certainty amid global competition for capital.
Production tax credits start at $3 to $4.50 per barrel, or 20% of the fiscal oil price, depending on reserve size, according to the official order.
Nigeria’s oil output has recovered to around 1.6–1.7 million barrels per day in 2026, yet deepwater developments have languished for nearly two decades due to fiscal uncertainty and high costs.
This marks the tenth major oil and gas policy under Tinubu’s administration, aimed at restoring competitiveness after years of declining investment.
The order grew from Tinubu’s earlier engagement with Shell CEO Wael Sawan, shifting from project-specific deals to a transparent, rules-based system applicable across qualifying assets.
“Projects qualifying under the framework will maximise execution within Nigeria wherever commercially and technically feasible,” said special adviser Olu Arowolo-Verheijen, highlighting gains for local engineering, fabrication and jobs.
State firm NNPC Limited can now amend production-sharing contracts to implement the incentives while protecting national value.
Tinubu framed success in concrete terms: more jobs, stronger Nigerian firms, higher production, increased federation revenues and domestic industrial capacity.
“The countries that attract long-term investment are not necessarily those with the greatest natural resources. They are the ones that provide the greatest certainty,” he stated.
Analysts note the move addresses investor complaints that Nigeria’s shifting terms had deterred multi-billion-dollar commitments, even as other African producers competed aggressively for capital.
If realised, the pipeline could position Nigeria as Africa’s deepwater project hub, turning stranded reserves into sustained output and skills for a new generation of workers.
