Ahead of the end of Q3 2023 this week, the growth data for the quarter will be keenly expected. Nigeria’s economy recorded a growth rate of 2.51% Q2 2023 compared to 3.54% in the corresponding period in 2022. As the graph below shows, both oil and non-oil sector growth are largely on downward trend. The data pattern resembles that of 2015 that culminated in a recession in 2016. The economy today is squeezed on all fronts. News from the agriculture sector points to a weak outlook next year on the back of rising input and energy prices, trading is squeezed by exchange rate volatility and accompanied inflation, while manufacturing is squeezed by rising input prices and exchange rate volatility as well. The oil sector that should have provided the base for Nigeria’s next wave of growth is strangled by oil theft and weak investments. Meanwhile, according to Premium Times report, Russia’s 34,000 tones of fertilizer export to Nigeria is stranded in EU ports for over a year, buttressing the point on rising input prices and outlook for lower agricultural output next year.
