By: ThinkBusiness Africa
Nigeria’s impressive streak of cooling prices hit a seasonal speed bump last month as headline inflation rose to 15.15% for December 2025. The data, released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), brings an end to eight consecutive months of decline, a period that saw inflation crash from near-record highs.
The December figure represents a 0.70% increase from the 14.45% recorded in November. While the uptick marks a break in the downward momentum, economists were quick to note that the rise was largely expected due to the “December holiday effect.”
The primary driver behind the reversal was the surge in consumer demand typically associated with the year-end festivities. This seasonal pressure was most evident in food prices and transportation costs. After months of relief fueled by a strong harvest season, food inflation climbed to an estimated 12.10% in December, up from 11.08% in November.
Increased spending on staples, “Detty December” social events, and holiday travel across the country combined to put the first upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since the first quarter of the year.
Despite the break in the disinflation trend, the 15.15% close is being viewed as a significant policy victory. In early 2025, inflation sat at a staggering 34.80%, and the government set an ambitious target to reach 15% by year-end.
The final figure also successfully avoided a much-feared “statistical explosion.” Following the rebasing of the CPI earlier in 2025, analysts had warned that a “base effect” could have mathematically forced the December reading above 30%. However, through a process of “normalization” and re-referencing, the NBS were able to ensure the data reflected actual market dynamics.
core inflation—which excludes the often-volatile prices of energy and agricultural produce—showed more stability. It moderated slightly to 17.85% in December, down from 18.04% in November. This steady decline in core figures suggests that the long-term monetary policies and currency stability achieved throughout the year continue to act as a effective anchor for the economy.
While the eight-month disinflation trend has technically ended, the overall trajectory of the Nigerian economy remains significantly more stable than it was 12 months ago.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to maintain its current stance as it monitors whether this December uptick is a one-off holiday spike or a sign of renewed pressure.
With the Naira ending the year with a 7.5% gain and domestic fuel prices softening thanks to increased local refining capacity from the Dangote refinery; most analysts project that the downward trend will likely resume in January 2026.
