Nigeria’s economy expanded in the first half of 2026, driven by resilient non-oil sector growth and a surging external balance, even as resurgent inflation posed ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
The performance metrics were disclosed in the latest macroeconomic report by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), which noted that “long-term inclusive growth requires manufacturing-led industrialization” alongside sustained non-oil expansion.
NESG noted Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, pushing gross domestic product to N110.8 trillion ($80.1 billion). The expansion was largely propelled by strong non-oil activity.
Full-year Gross Domestic Product growth is projected to reach 4.2% for 2026, supported by an anticipated acceleration to 4.5% across the second half of the year.
Headline inflation reversed its disinflation path during H1 2026, rising from 15.1% in January to 15.9% in June and averaging 15.5% due to high energy and food transport costs.
The Central Bank of Nigeria held its monetary policy rate at 26.5% after a 50 basis point cut in February, while private sector credit expansion reached 6.9% by June.
In the external sector, gross foreign exchange reserves surged to $51.5 billion during H1 2026, up significantly from $37.2 billion recorded in the first half of 2025.
The naira appreciated 11.2% year-on-year to N1,379.2 per dollar, narrowing the parallel market margin to 1.1% while trade activity supported a $5.0 billion current account surplus.
Fiscal pressures persisted as total public debt scaled N159.4 trillion, resulting in a 4.3% GDP budget deficit despite federal revenue improving to 2.8% of GDP.
Capital markets experienced an unprecedented H1 rally, with the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index surging 91.2% to 229,419.1 points, anchored by domestic institutional participation.
This macro performance builds on momentum established earlier in 2026 when gross foreign exchange reserves initially crossed the $47 billion benchmark following key policy shifts.
