Nigeria’s Oil Output Hits 15-Month High, Exceeds OPEC Quota
LAGOS — Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production increased to 1.530 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2026, marking a 15-month high and reinforcing its position as Africa’s top producer. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) confirms output grew 2.77% month-on-month from April’s 1.489 million bpd. The growth reflects improved operational stability and zero major pipeline disruptions. The surge pushed Nigeria to 102% compliance with its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota. This is the first time the country has outperformed its allocated target since mid-2025. Including an average daily condensate output of 170,446 barrels, Nigeria’s total hydrocarbon production for May reached 1.70 million bpd. This continues a steady five-month upward trajectory across upstream assets. The recovery was driven primarily by strong terminal performance. The Bonny Terminal led national output at 293,870 bpd, while the Forcados and Qua Iboe streams contributed 289,900 bpd and 173,360 bpd respectively. “In strict crude oil terms (excluding condensates), the 1.53 million barrels recorded in May 2026 represents the highest Nigeria has witnessed since January 2025 when crude oil production hit 1.538mbpd.” NUPRC said in a statement on X. “The latest crude oil production statistics thus represents a 15-month high On a month on month basis, production rose by 2.77% in May 2026 as against 1.48mbpd in April.” The NUPRC attributed the milestone to the successful completion of scheduled turnaround maintenance. Sustained asset protection also helped curb the historical infrastructure vulnerabilities that previously limited production capacity. The growth provides critical relief for Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators. Rising output directly strengthens federal oil revenues and boosts foreign exchange liquidity amid the Central Bank’s ongoing economic stabilization reforms.
Nigeria: Cardoso Snags Global ‘Central Bank of the Year’ Award in London as Reforms Pay Off
LAGOS — Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso formally received the prestigious 2026 Central Banking Central Bank of the Year Award here on Wednesday, signaling strong international approval of Nigeria’s aggressive monetary reforms. The award committee recognized the CBN’s swift return to orthodox monetary policy, decisive inflation-targeting measures, and foreign exchange market liberalization since Cardoso assumed office in late 2023. Accepting the honour, Cardoso framed the award as validation for institutional resilience, calling it an encouragement to sustain painful but necessary macroeconomic adjustments rather than a final destination for the apex bank. “According to the Governor, the Bank’s reform agenda has been guided by a clear objective: restoring confidence, strengthening institutional resilience and policy credibility, and laying a solid foundation for sustainable economic growth.” CBN stated in a post on X. The global recognition comes as Nigeria’s external reserves recently hit a ten-year high of $50 billion, providing a critical buffer for the volatile local currency amid ongoing monetary tightening. Foreign investors have lauded the bank’s structural transparency tools, including the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System, which effectively compressed the parallel market premium from over 60% to under 2%. Furthermore, investor sentiment improved dramatically after the CBN successfully cleared years of trapped foreign exchange forward obligations and secured Nigeria’s strategic exit from the Financial Action Task Force grey list. Crucially, the award closely follows the smooth conclusion of the CBN’s rigorous 24-month banking sector recapitalization program in March, which successfully shored up the capital bases of 33 commercial banks. Analysts note that this international endorsement gives the regulatory bank significant leverage as it continues to raise interest rates to curb sticky core inflation and stabilize domestic commodity prices. The London ceremony was attended by global financial policymakers, institutional investors, and central bank governors, highlighting Nigeria’s re-integration into the mainstream global financial ecosystem after years of unconventional interventions.
IMF backs Nigeria’s central bank on tight policy to beat inflation
LAGOS – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) tight monetary policy, urging a data-dependent approach until inflation is firmly defeated and public expectations anchor. In its 2026 Article IV Consultation report released on Tuesday, the IMF Executive Board endorsed a “tighter-for-longer” stance, validating the apex bank’s strategy to tackle resurgent consumer price pressures which hit a high of 15.69% in April. Directors welcomed the CBN’s progress toward adopting a full inflation-targeting framework, noting that clear communication and independent policy guidance will be vital to securing long-term price stability and market credibility. “The Central Bank of Nigeria should maintain a tight monetary policy stance with a data-dependent approach until disinflation is entrenched and inflation expectations are anchored.” IMF Directors said. “Directors welcomed progress toward adopting inflation targeting and encouraged steps to strengthen monetary transmission and communication.” IMF noted. The Washington-based lender also urged the central bank to implement institutional steps that strengthen monetary policy transmission, ensuring benchmark interest rate changes effectively influence commercial lending and deposit rates. Praising the commitment to a flexible exchange rate regime, the IMF noted the policy helped the naira appreciate 10% year-on-year against the U.S. dollar, while rebuilding external reserves to $46 billion in 2025. The Fund recommended that future foreign exchange interventions remain strictly limited to smoothing disorderly market volatility, while advising Nigeria to reduce dependency on volatile, short-term portfolio inflows. The IMF Executive Board welcomed recent tax reforms but noted that additional tax policy measures will likely be needed over the medium term to expand revenue collections. Furthermore, directors highlighted deep concerns regarding unrecorded off-budget expenditures and complex financing instruments, demanding immediate acceleration of public financial management reforms to strengthen fiscal reporting, transparency, and country risk frameworks. The Fund urged the government to urgently secure funding to scale up its structured cash transfer program, warning that acute poverty and food insecurity are expected to worsen under current global price pressures.
Nigeria Targets 95% Financial Inclusion by 2028 in Africa’s Largest Cashless Push
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) targets 95% financial inclusion in Vision 2028, aiming to bring millions of unbanked citizens into the formal economy through aggressive infrastructure and digital identity reforms over the next 36 months. This target represents a significant leap from current tracking metrics. According to Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access (EFInA) latest financial access findings, Nigeria’s formal financial inclusion rate stands at 64%, leaving a multi-million citizen gap. The continental benchmark places Nigeria behind several regional peers. World Bank Findex metrics indicate that East and Southern African leaders like Kenya and South Africa boast formal inclusion rates exceeding 80% and 90% respectively, powered by mature mobile money ecosystems. The policy shift addresses persistent bottlenecks. Despite domestic electronic transactions exceeding 600 trillion naira in recent years, formal financial access remains starkly concentrated across urban centers, deeply marginalizing rural populations. To bridge this gap, the apex bank’s newly released Payment System Vision 2028 blueprint mandates that licensed financial operators achieve a 95% transaction success rate while strictly maintaining system uptimes of 99.999%. The strategy forces a pivot toward alternative transaction technologies. The central bank is mandating the deployment of offline-capable payment rails, utilizing Bluetooth and Near Field Communication to bypass rural network deficits. Gender disparities are also targeted. The CBN is rolling out a “Women Agent 2.0” pilot program to build trust and achieve gender parity across its nationwide network of two million banking agents. To protect grassroots consumers, the roadmap enforces automated identity verification. Moving forward, the apex bank requires systematic, real-time harmonization of Bank Verification Numbers (BVN) and National Identification Numbers (NIN) across all wallets. Furthermore, the framework introduces a centralized National Consumer Redress Portal. This ombudsman structure binds financial institutions to automated service level agreements, targeting a mandatory 90% dispute resolution rate to restore public trust. The aggressive rollout follows recent regulatory challenges. Over the past year, the CBN faced severe public scrutiny regarding cash availability, network downtime during currency transitions, and rising multi-channel fintech fraud. In response, the document outlines an auxiliary goal targeting a 70% reduction in financial fraud losses, supported by a newly established 24/7 National Payment Security Operations Centre for automated threat monitoring. Execution occurs across three distinct phases. The apex bank will initiate joint technical working groups immediately, moving into predictive artificial intelligence fraud analytics and full cross-border payment integration by 2028.
Exclusive: Nigeria’s SEC to provide update on capital recapitalization end June
LAGOS – The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to evaluate compliance plans submitted by operators and provide key updates by the end of June 2026, following sweeping hikes to minimum capital requirements; source familiar with the matter told ThinkBusiness Africa. The capital market regulator issued the directive in January 2026, mandating capital threshold increases of up to 3,400%. Brokerage operators must achieve full financial compliance with the new benchmarks on or before June 30, 2027. This mid-year review follows an initial April 2026 deadline for market intermediaries to submit board-approved recapitalization strategies. Intermediaries failing to meet structural conditions face potential license downgrades or forced corporate mergers. The policy aims to fix a decade of regulatory stagnation under the previous 2015 framework. That older system left firms exposed to severe naira depreciation and rising market complexities. Official financial data indicates the Nigerian naira lost more than 87% of its value between 2015 and 2025. A severe 129% currency drop in 2024 alone eroded real capital buffers. A weekly institutional brief from Africa Business convention (ABC) highlights severe structural gaps facing independent operators under these rules. For instance, standard broker-dealers face an aggressive 567% statutory increase from N300 million to N2 billion. Full-scope tier-1 fund managers face a massive hike from N150 million to N5 billion. It also noted that the earlier January circular was a correction of accumulated distortion, not a routine review and investors should see it as a signal that Nigeria’s regulatory posture has “shifted from maintenance to transformation”. However, the SEC’s recapitalization structure mirrors a parallel multi-trillion naira consolidation exercise executed across Nigeria’s banking sector. Between 2024 and 2026, domestic commercial banks raised N4.65 trillion in fresh equity capital. Regulatory authorities are utilizing fixed statutory floors to eliminate high industry fragmentation. The market currently hosts roughly 200 dealing firms, many possessing highly limited risk-absorption capacities. The upcoming June update will categorize compliant firms, pending structural mergers, and operators adjusting license scopes. This shift repositions local institutions to attract cross-border capital flows under regional trade frameworks.
Nigeria Private Sector Activity Hits 9-Month High Amid Stiff Cost Pressures
LAGOS – Nigeria’s private sector logged its strongest expansion in nine months as the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index jumped 3.24% to 54.1% in May from 52.4 in April. The headline reading signaled a solid monthly improvement in business conditions across the country. The health of the private sector has now strengthened for four consecutive months. Accelerated expansions in both output and new orders drove the growth. Anecdotal evidence from surveyed firms pointed to improving customer demand and the successful launch of new products. Output growth was recorded across manufacturing, agriculture, services, and wholesale and retail sectors. Improving demand led companies to aggressively expand their purchasing activity and inventories during the month. Efforts to secure inputs were helped by an improvement in vendor performance. Prompt payments and better road conditions helped to speed up supplier delivery times. Despite rapid growth, employment rose only slightly midway through the second quarter. Sustained job creation has now been recorded on a monthly basis for an entire year. Meanwhile, backlogs of work increased for the fourth successive month. Firms blamed customer payment delays, raw material shortages, and recurrent power failures for the persistent operational delays. Increasing fuel costs following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove up purchase prices. Purchase costs rose rapidly again, despite the overall rate of cost inflation easing. Output prices continued to rise sharply as firms passed expenses to consumers. Manufacturing and agriculture experienced the steepest increase in output prices as firms defended margins. This private sector rebound follows a weaker-than-expected first-quarter real GDP growth rate of 3.89%, which was dragged down by a slowing non-oil sector. The policy environment remains highly restrictive for businesses. The Central Bank of Nigeria recently held its benchmark interest rate at 26.5% to curb stubborn inflationary pressures. National Bureau of Statistics data showed headline inflation quickened to 15.69 percent in April. Elevated transport and food prices continue to pinch corporate margins and consumer wallet share.
Cost Squeeze Drags Kenya’s Private Sector into Third Month of Contraction
Kenya’s private sector activity shrank for a third consecutive month in May as a relentless surge in operating costs forced businesses to cut jobs and pass expenses to struggling consumers. The headline Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers’ Index plummeted to a multi-month low, tracking well below the 50.0 neutral threshold that separates economic growth from contraction. A sharp combination of domestic fuel price hikes, increased transport levies, and lingering global supply disruptions drove total corporate input costs up at the fastest pace seen since late last year. Faced with eroding margins, companies aggressively raised their own output charges. This triggered severe customer resistance, causing new orders and domestic sales books to collapse at an accelerating rate. Compounding the downturn, firms trimmed their workforces for the first time in over a year. Businesses primarily axed temporary and casual contracts to rein in overheads amid the demand slump. The downturn hits as the government targets aggressive tax collection to manage public debt, a fiscal strategy that analysts warn could further depress consumer spending power through the second half of the year.
Nigeria: CBN Hikes Interest Rates to Raise N1.46 Trillion Amid Surging Demand
LAGOS – Nigeria’s central bank raised N1.457 trillion at its latest treasury bills auction, aggressively hiking yields across all tenors despite receiving overwhelming investor subscriptions that more than doubled its initial target. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) capitalized on robust market liquidity, drawing N2.160 trillion in total bids against an initial N1.00 trillion offer size during Monday’s primary market auction. Result of the Auction published by CBN showed yields on the benchmark 364-day paper jumped 20 basis points to clear at 16.35%, reflecting aggressive central bank efforts to mop up banking system liquidity and defend the volatile naira. The 91-day and 182-day stop rates also increased, clearing at 16.05% and 16.19% respectively, as institutional investors successfully demanded higher premiums to lock in short-term capital. Investor demand was heavily skewed toward long-dated debt, with the one-year paper attracting N1.946 trillion in subscriptions, representing roughly 90% of total market interest during the session. The aggressive rate hikes signal a sharp reversal from May’s brief easing trend, re-aligning the CBN with a hawkish monetary stance to combat persistent domestic inflationary pressures. The central bank’s monetary policy committee previously raised its benchmark interest rate to a record 26.5% to curb persistent inflation and stabilize the macroeconomic environment
Fuel Shocks, Iran War Fears Drag South African Private Sector into May Contraction
South Africa’s private sector activity contracted in May as output and new orders plunged under the weight of surging fuel prices and escalating geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, a business survey showed on Wednesday. The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell below the critical 50.0 no-change threshold, dropping from April’s expansionary reading to signal a sharp reversal in the country’s economic momentum. Firms reported that escalating global tensions disrupted supply chains and stoked inflation. Rising operating costs forced businesses to hike selling prices, directly depressing domestic demand and causing clients to pull back on new orders. “The May survey highlights how vulnerable domestic demand remains to external shocks,” said David Owen, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Higher fuel prices and geopolitical anxiety squeezed corporate margins and chilled consumer spending.” The downturn coincides with a tough macroeconomic environment. Statistics South Africa recently reported that consumer inflation accelerated to 4.0%, driven by a 35.4% jump in diesel prices that heavily impacted local logistics. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has kept its benchmark repo rate steady at 8.25% to combat these persistent price pressures, further constraining borrowing and capital investment across the private sector. The manufacturing and construction sectors bore the brunt of the May slowdown. Managers noted that defensive stockpiling of raw materials, triggered by shipping delays, tied up critical cash reserves. Economists warn that the contraction threatens broader economic growth. High unemployment, which currently stands at 32.7%, leaves little room for the domestic economy to absorb sustained global supply shocks and elevated energy costs.
Uganda’s Gold Exports Surge to $6.5 Billion in Nine Months
LAGOS – Uganda exported gold worth about $6.5 billion between July and March, cementing its position as the country’s top foreign exchange earner, the Bank of Uganda said. The sharp rise highlights the success of the country’s open capital account policy. It has attracted investors, spurred gold refining, and boosted inflows. Gold has surpassed coffee as Uganda’s leading export. Full-year 2025 exports reached $5.8 billion, up 75.8% from $3.3 billion in 2024, driven by record global prices. Deputy Governor Michael Atingi-Ego noted the growth during the May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement. “We have seen exports of gold rising sharply. Actually from July to March we see that we exported gold worth about six point five billion dollars,” he said. Uganda operates around nine refineries producing 99.9% pure gold. Much of the exported volume comes from imported raw material, mainly from regional neighbors, which is refined and re-exported. This model has generated forex inflows but limited net gains. Analysts estimate only about $200 million in value addition stays in the economy after imports. The Bank of Uganda is launching a domestic gold purchase program to increase local sourcing, improve traceability, and build reserves. It aims to buy up to 10 tonnes annually from Ugandan miners. The country inaugurated its first large-scale gold mine in 2025, a $250 million Chinese-owned project expected to boost domestic production. Economists say the open policy has created jobs in refining and trading. However, questions remain on tax collection, local benefits, and reducing reliance on imported gold.
